Don’t get confident. We were on fire with a bunch of big weeks followed by a great Thanksgiving and then went 1-5 in Week 13. That’s the opposite of good. So it’s time to go back to basics. Hit some home underdogs. Take some unders. Moneyline an obvious favorite here or there.
Finishing .500 isn’t the goal because that means lost money. There’s a reason that books take a vig. It’s their fee for taking a bet. That’s why finishing .500 is bad. That vig isn’t made up. It’s not a lot of lost money, but it’s 10 percent of a unit lost generally. So we need some winners. Let’s get some winners.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
LOS ANGELES RAMS -1.5 over Seattle Seahawks and Over 46.5
We are starting with the NFC West Sunday Night Football matchup because it’s the best bet of the week for the game and the total.
Let’s hit to the total first, here are the totals for the last four Rams-Seahawks games: 49, 64, 67, 59. You’ll notice that all of those totals are over the 46.5 — including the game earlier this year held in Seattle.
That’s also why we are taking the Rams who have scored 42, 33, 36, and 29 in those last four contests. The Rams have to win this game. It’s in Los Angeles — which doesn’t provide home field advantage but it’s not playing in Seattle — and the Rams seem to have found their offense last game. That’s not good news for Seattle because they already struggle to stop the Rams offense.
By the way, Seattle is +36 in point differential this year. The Rams are +33. One team is 10-2 and the other is 7-5.
BUFFALO BILLS +5.5 over Baltimore Ravens and Under 43.5
Two big games, two bets for each game. Let’s get nuts.
We’ll take the home-dog here. It will be unseasonably warm in Orchard Park for a Sunday in December which is the only reason I’d be slightly concerned about the total here, but the Bills defense is good enough to try and corral Lamar Jackson and the Bills gameplan on offense should be obvious.
They should run the ball every chance they get. Raheem Mostert absolutely gashed the Ravens defense last week. The Bills should use Devin Singletary in a similar manner. They should attack the edges of the Ravens run defense and use Singeltary out of the backfield. When Singletary gets tired, they should run Frank Gore. Establish the run — shutout Evan Silv and co..
The Ravens will look to put up big plays, but the Bills pass defense should be able to shut down any threats down the field. The linebacking corps will have their hands full with Lamar Jackson but everyone does. Home dogs and the under. Let’s go Buffalo.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3 (-120) over Kansas City Chiefs
There is one reason and one reason only why taking the Patriots make any sense. This is the type of game where everyone counts them out and they somehow figure out a way to win the game. It happens every year. The Patriots get beat away from home. They look vulnerable. Everyone starts piling dirt on their grave. They come back and win.
New England is 41-6 after a loss since 2003. They cover 71.9 percent of the time. I’m not going against that.
San Francisco 49ers +3 (-135) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Feel free to take the under in this game as well — it’s a 44.5. Now let’s get into why the Niners are the bet in this matchup.
The Niners have lost two games this season. They lost one in overtime by a field goal. They lost the other last week by a last-second field goal. Their point differential is +166.
The Saints haven’t played anyone recently — well they’ve obviously played someone but you get the point — and the Niners are the first real NFC contender they’ll play since Drew Brees returned from injury. New Orleans has done what it had to do in recent games, but they haven’t looked impressive.
The one good thing for New Orleans is that they can stop the run which is where the Niners make their money. Jimmy Garoppolo is going to have to step up in this game.
Buy the hook just in case.,
HOUSTON TEXANS -7 (-135) over Denver Broncos
This game screams trap. The Texans are coming off a big week. The Broncos won last week. Drew Lock didn’t look good outside of the first drive, but they still won. The Texans have a historic habit of losing games they should win handily.
This is a different Texans team this year. Yea, Houston’s defensive DVOA isn’t great — they’re at 25 –, but the Broncos offense isn’t exactly world-beaters. It’s Courtland Sutton, a sprinkle of Phillip Lindsay and that’s about it.
The Denver defense is banged up and it’s going to be hard to stop the Texans passing attack. It’s a big spread, but it’s the right pick.
San Diego Chargers -2.5 over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
It’s reached the point for Jacksonville where even Minshew Magic can’t save them. It’s too little too late for the Jaguars. There’s no reason to play hard for Doug Marrone — he’s probably gone — and if Tom Coughlin is shown the door, a lot of guys on this team could have their jobs in jeopardy.
The Charger can’t lose in another horrible way . . . right? They find ways to lose. They are 4-8 with a slightly positive point differential. To give you some perspective, the Raiders are 6-6 with a -87 point differential.
Speaking of the Raiders . . .
Tennessee Titans -2.5 over OAKLAND RAIDERS
I want to take the Raiders. They are 5-1 at home and 1-5 on the road. I just can’t take the Raiders with good conscious as they were outscored 74-12 in the last two games. Josh Jacobs is playing with a pretty bad shoulder injury. Derek Carr has no weapons to throw to. It’s not good.
The Titans come into town with Derek Henry just rounding into forms. No one wants to hit him right now. Ryan Tannehill has provided a spark and the Titans could have a legit shot at the AFC South since they play the Texans twice.
Washington Redskins +12.5 over GREEN BAY PACKERS
Fine, this is a weird pick, but hear me out. The Redskins are actually playing well and they want to run the football. The Packers are playing perfectly fine, but they struggle to stop the run. The spread at 12.5 is a lot of points in this game.
Yes, the Packers trounced the Giants last week, but right now the Redskins are playing better football than New York. They have an identity. Dwayne Haskins looks good when he has time and can play quickly. Washington won’t win, but we will hope for the cover.
Good luck this weekend.
2019 Record: 45-46
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
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