The Super Bowl is the last gasp to bet on football — outside of the XFL — and this is the time with most bets possible. People love player props — and books like them too since fans usually lose money on them — and we’ve already taken a look at some Chiefs’ play props as well as the Niners’ player props. Now, it’s time to take a look at the game. We’re talking about all aspects of the game. The team totals, quarters, halves, game totals, and obviously the Super Bowl pick.
Spreads and lines come from our friends at BetMGM. Let’s start with the obvious. The first quarter.
First Quarter Lines
San Francisco 49ers v. Kansas City -0.5 points
Over – Under 10.5 points
As aforementioned, we are running out of time here so betting the game and walking away simply isn’t an option. It’s crazy to think that this game which has an over-under of 54 has a first-quarter over-under of ten points. The obvious bet would be to take the over and count the cash. That’s a quick way to start up on the night.
Well, we are taking the under for a few reasons. The first quarter is generally when teams are testing each other out. These two teams haven’t played in two weeks. There will be some rust. These two quarterbacks haven’t ever played in a Super Bowl. The lights are brighter. The speed is faster. It will take time to settle. So under it is. It’s crazy, I know. Also, sprinkle a bit on the Niners plus a half a point. The Chiefs have started out slowly the past two games. There’s no reason to expect less in this game.
Second Quarter Lines
San Francisco 49ers v. Kansas City -0.5 points
Over – Under 16.5 points
It’s weird. It’s like the books understand that the second quarter is when the action really starts. Who knew? It’s like they know how to make money. Well, we are still taking the over in the second quarter for the exact reasons listed before. The teams will settle down. The Chiefs have been an absolute wagon in the second quarter of the playoffs. The Niners offense isn’t too shabby either.
We’ll also take the Chiefs in the second quarter. It’s their normal script. They fall behind a team. We wonder if the Chiefs can come back from a hole they’ve dug for themselves. Patrick Mahomes starts shooting lasers out of his eyes — and arm — and the Chiefs roll to 20 something points. That’s probably not going to happen against a defense as good as the Niners, but 10-14 points seem reasonable.
First Half Lines
San Francisco 49ers v. Kansas City -1.5 points
Over – Under 26.5 points
Let’s get nuts. The natural thing to think of would be that the under is the play and the Chiefs are the play. Not so fast.
Let’s say the Niners score on their first drive, and the Chiefs kick a field goal. We end the first quarter 7-3 San Francisco. Then the Niners score another touchdown but the Chiefs score 10 points in the second quarter. We got a 17-14 Chiefs game. That’s the over for the first half. It’s the Chiefs for the first half. Let’s stick with it.
Niners Team Totals 26.5
We’ve already predicted 14 points in the first half for the Niners. So you know where this is heading. San Francisco has averaged 29.9 points per game this year. They are going up against a Chiefs defense that has looked great the last half of the season and did well enough to win two playoff games. Take a closer look at the opponents they played in the last few weeks of the regular season. The offenses of those teams were kind of garbage. None of them had anyone close to Kyle Shanahan’s ability when it comes to calling plays.
We haven’t even seen George Kittle in the playoffs. The Niners can be run the ball with whichever running back they want. Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders will be just fine in this game. Jimmy Garoppolo shouldn’t be a concern. Take the over.
Chiefs Team Total 27.5
Do we really need to do this? The Chiefs offense is an unstoppable force. The Niners defense is great but thinking they will stop Patrick Mahomes in any way shape or form is a pipe dream. The best the Niners can do is hope to slow down Mahomes. This is easy. Over.
San Francisco 49ers v. Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
Over – Under 54.5
Expect the Chiefs to come out and attack the edges. There will be a lot of screens. Andy Reid loves screens. Patrick Mahomes will attack the Niners cover three and they’ll try to get Tyreek Hill in space. The Chiefs are 12-5-1 against the spread this season.
Expect the Niners to try and run the football, but they will also use play-action and disguise their offense through pre-snap motion. Tyrann Mathieu will probably match up with George Kittle. The Niners wide receivers will have to figure out a way to beat the Chiefs corners. Sanders did that when he was with the Broncos, and he can do it with the Chiefs. Samuel will act as a big body. The Niners will also try to get him the ball through jet sweeps and reverses. San Fransisco is 11-6-1 against the spread this season.
It really comes down to defense. The Chiefs actually gave up fewer points per game — by 0.1 points — this season compared to the Niners. That’s odd to think about. The Niners obviously have better talent on defense. They have the speed to try and contain Mahomes who is sneaky elusive. We’ve seen it before.
As odd as this sounds, the Niners have the edge when it comes to coaching. For some reason, Andy Reid hasn’t been able to get the Chiefs to start quickly. His clock management issues that have plagued him his entire career are still a factor. That’s slightly important in what is expected to be a close game. Kyle Shanahan has his own demons. He was the offensive coordinator when the Patriots came back from 28-3. That’s one anecdotal data point. He’s been amazing all season — his first full season with a healthy quarterback and a good defense.
This game should be close, but here’s the one thing I keep thinking about when making a decision. The Niners essentially lost their three games this season by seven points. Yes, I know they lost by more than that against the Falcons, but that was on a fluke play. They lost to the Seahawks in overtime. They lost to the Ravens on a last-second field goal. We’ve reviewed the Falcons. San Francisco could have gone undefeated. The Chiefs can’t fall behind. The 49ers are too good to do that against.
Final Score: San Francisco 49ers 30 Kansas City Chiefs 28
