After an 8-4 weekend in the divisional round, we are back to try and beat the book for the championship round. We are running out of games to pick — unless you’re going to be looking at XFL games which would be an interesting choice. We went 8-4 last week only picking the Seahawks incorrectly. The other three losses were exotics — thanks Baltimore.
Both teams have already played each other this season.
Just like last week, we will pick the game, the totals, and maybe add some first-half lines and team totals. The Packers were absolutely worked by the Niners in late November. The final score of 37-8 doesn’t even do justice to how bad the Packers played in that game — or how dominant the Niners looked.
The Titans defeated the Chiefs in Nashville in early November in a wonky game. It was the true start of the Titans run to end the season. That run got them to the AFC title game. It’s also the last game the Chiefs lost.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Sunday, January 19, 3:05 p.m ET / 12:05 p.m. PT
Tennesee Titans v. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -7.5
Over – Under 51.5
When the Titans beat the Chiefs the final score was 35-32. The Titans had absolutely no shot at stopping Patrick Mahomes and friends and beat them in a shootout. Let’s say that if a high-scoring game happens again, it heavily favors the Chiefs.
The normal reaction to this game would that the Chiefs will run away with. They have a powerful offense. They have speed all over the place. This isn’t an aging Tom Brady or Lamar Jackson making throws he doesn’t want to make. This is Mahomes at the peak of his powers. Everyone on offense is healthy. They just dropped 51 points last week. They overcame a 24 point deficit in a half. It’s their time. They were robbed last year.
The bets — according to Action Network — are showing that. There is 63 percent of bets on the Chiefs and 57 percent of the money. It’s the easiest play to make. If the Titans fall behind, they simply won’t be able to catch up. That’s it. Take the Chiefs. Don’t overthink this thing. Except . . .
Andy Reid is 1-5 in conference championship games. He’s somehow 1-8 against the Titans — although that shouldn’t really matter because he’s not facing Titans teams from the past. Here’s where it gets even more concerning for the Chiefs.
Right now, Mike Vrabel has been one of the best coaches in the playoffs. He beat the Patriots. He beat the Ravens. He’s changed his defense when it needed to be changed. Each gameplan has been new on defense and both defenses have worked. It’s like a Bill Belichick team.
Per the Around the NFL podcast, Mahomes is 3-4 in his career– including the playoffs — against Belichick and the coaches of his tree. He’s 23-4 against all other teams. That means something.
Styles make fights. The Titans are a big, bruising, physical team. When everyone went to speed, Tennessee decided to go the other way to go to strength and power. They have an aggressive offensive line that dominated the Patriots and the Ravens. Derrick Henry has been the playoff MVP so far. By the way, the 29th ranked rush defense according to DVOA. Henry already dropped 188 yards on the Chiefs this season.
You can see where I am going here. When you can take 7.5 points, you take 7.5 points. The Titans may not win, but they are going to keep this game close. Tennessee is almost the worst matchup for Kansas City. They may have rather played the Ravens.
Picks:
Tennessee Titans +7.5
Tennessee Titans +4.5 1H
Over 51.5
Over 25.5 1H
Sunday, January 19, 6:40 p.m ET / 3:40 p.m. PT
Green Bay Packers v. SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -7.5
Over – Under 44.5
The Packers didn’t even show up when they faced the Niners in San Francisco right before Thanksgiving. It was embarrasing. The 37-8 game was a dismantling. Yes, it was in November, but we really don’t want to take that game into account. Per Around the NFL, teams losing by more than 20 points in the regular season that had a rematch in the playoffs are 0-13. So let’s not pretend like the last game doesn’t matter.
Fine, let’s take last week into account. The Niners absolutely destroyed the Vikings. They took Dalvin Cook out of the game. They can do the same to Aaron Jones. That would make the Packers one-dimensional. Normally that wouldn’t matter because Aaron Rodgers would pick the opponent apart. He was sacked five sacks in the last matchup. He has one weapon in the receiving game in Davante Adams. No one else is showing up. Jimmy Graham is completely washed. The San Francisco pass rush looked scary last week against the Vikings. That could leave Rodgers trying to extend plays but he doesn’t have the talent around him to make old-timey amazing Rodgers plays.
Let’s stay on last week. The Packers were healthy coming off a bye week. They were facing the banged-up Seattle Seahawks. They should have won by two touchdowns. Instead the game came down to the wire and Green Bay needed Rodgers heroics to lock up the win.
Here’s how the Packers could win. They take advantage of Jimmy Garoppolo and his two to three bad passes a week. They need to force turnovers. To do so, they’ll need to first stop the Niners running game. That is not going to be easy — especially because the Packers have struggled to stop the run this year. Kyle Shanahan is going to go after the Packers defense’s weakness. That means we should see a lot of the running game and George Kittle and the running backs taking advantage of the linebackers in the passing game.
Picks:
San Francisco 49ers -7 (-135)
Green Bay Packers +4.5 1H
Under 44.5
Other Bets
Two Team Teaser Six-Point Teaser: Tennessee Titans +13.5, San Francisco 49ers -1
Three Team 10-Point Teaser: Tennessee Titans +17.5, Titans-Chiefs Over 41.5, Packers-Niners Under 54.5
Three Team Moneyline Parlay (+780): Tennessee Titans +260, San Francisco 49ers -358, Packers-Niners Under 44.5
2019 Playoff Record: 10-8
2019 Record: 61-60-2
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
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