What ten position prop bets appear to be the best options and the best picks going into the 2020 NFL Draft? Here you go. Enjoy.
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CFN 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings
from the college perspective …
QB | RB | WR | TE | OT | OG & C
DE | DT | LB | CB | Safeties
Greatest NFL Draft Picks From Each School
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
32 Greatest Draft Picks of All-Time
Full 2020 NFL Draft Order
CFN Top 106 Player Rankings (1st 3 rounds)
And the ten 2020 NFL Draft position prop bets that appear to be a wee bit favorable in terms of three thins, 1) value, 2) value and 3) value are …
All lines come from BetMGM.
10. 2nd Defensive Lineman Drafted
PICK: Javon Kinlaw +180
We’re all assuming that Chase Young is a mortal lock to be the first defensive lineman taken – he’s a +1800, by the way – but Auburn DT Derrick Brown is being thrown out there as a possible top ten overall pick, and potentially even top five. The problem is the value – he’s a -323 to be the second D lineman selected.
South Carolina’s Javon Kinlaw has a bigger upside, better tools, and is a bigger shot for the start. He’s not a fantastic value, but at +180, there’s at least a bit more of a boost if you get it right.
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
9. 1st Safety Drafted
PICK: Grant Delpit, +210
It’s very, very possible that Delpit is a better safety than Alabama’s Xavier McKinney. McKinney is the overwhelming favorite to be the first safety off the board – he’s a -304 – but there’s no fun or value in that. It only takes one team to like Delpit, who was a possible top ten overall prospect before last season began.
Jeremy Chinn of Southern Illinois (+700) and Lenoir-Rhyne’s Kyle Dugger (+3300) have the best tools of any safety in the draft, but that’s taking a massive chance on fantastic value.
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
CFN in 60: 2020 Top Five Overall Prospects
8. 1st Quarterback Drafted
PICK: Tua Tagovailoa +900
It’s going to be Joe Burrow to Cincinnati to kick it all off, but … go ahead with a total shot for the stars at +900.
Burrow is a -10000 value for the 1st quarterback drafted, but if you want to get crazy, it’s possible the Bengals could trade down. It’s not totally insane to think that they might like Tagovailoa better.
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
7. 1st Offensive Lineman Drafted
PICK: Mekhi Becton +500
Welcome to the theme across this whole piece – never underestimate what NFL teams think of guys with freakish tools and abilities. To be warned, there’s a better 1st Offensive Lineman Drafted pick to be had, but Louisville’s Mekhi Becton is the best value shot.
Georgia’s Andrew Thomas at +750 isn’t bad, but there are three O lineman – Alabama’s Jedrick Wills, Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, and Becton – who are all in the same bag. Pick one out, and you might have the right guy. The 365-pound Becton is a great value at what appears to be a 30% shot.
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
6. 2nd Quarterback Drafted
PICK: Jordan Love +3500
Value, value, value.
It’s the one big question that no one seems to have a handle on – how do teams rank the top quarterbacks? Everyone’s being more coy than usual about this, and there’s a deafening silence when it comes to Utah State’s Jordan Love.
If we’re all in agreement that Joe Burrow is the first quarterback gone, how much is everyone worrying about Tua Tagovailoa’s hip? No, really, how big of a concern is it for a top five overall pick? He’s at -139 to be the second quarterback taken.
Justin Herbert is the stand up double of a call at +100. This might be a case of We Should’ve Seen It Coming – someone trades heaven and earth to move up to get him. However, at +3500, Love is an interesting call if someone sees something they really, really like.
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
NEXT: The Top Five 2020 NFL Draft Position Prop Bets
5. 1st Kicker Drafted
PICK: Tyler Bass +400
The first step in trying to figure out who the first kicker drafted will be is to try figuring out if a kicker will actually be drafted.
2015 was the last time a kicker wasn’t picked, and compared to other position players, it usually turns out to be one of the best value selections a team can make.
The top four kickers in field goal percentage last season – Josh Lambo, Justin Tucker, Chris Boswell and Dan Bailey – weren’t drafted, and the No. 5 guy – Mason Crosby – was drafted by Green Bay in the sixth round.
Zane Gonzalez was great for Arizona last year, but Cleveland took him in the seventh in 2007 – and had to draft Austin Seibert last year. Seibert was picked at the end of the fifth round and was solid, but Tampa Bay selected Matt Gay earlier in the fifth and he struggled.
The Bucs are still trying to figure out their kicker situation after an all-time whiff of taking Roberto Aguayo in the second round in 2016.
Long preamble short, drafted kickers are usually good, but they’re not usually good in the order in which they were drafted – if that makes any sense.
This year, Georgia’s Rodrigo Blankenship is expected to be the first one off the board, but that’s a total guess and he’s a -170 value. Utah State’s Dominik Eberle is a good choice at +260, but considering this is a value call, Georgia Southern’s Tyler Bass is the best value chance to go first at +400.
He’s good on kickoffs, has a deep leg, and he should at least be drafted.
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
NEXT: 2020 NFL Draft Position Prop Bet No. 4
4. 1st Running Back Drafted
PICK: Jonathan Taylor +190
Full disclosure and fully admitting that this could and probably will come back to punch me in the rocks …
I sort of don’t get D’Andre Swift as a sure-thing top running back in this draft.
It’s not that the Georgia running back won’t be a good pro, but he doesn’t play with high-end on-field speed, he doesn’t bring any real power for defenses to be worried about, and he’s not great at hanging on to the ball.
With all that said, he can catch, speed isn’t as big a deal as quickness – he’s got elite cutting ability – and he has a whole lot of tread left on the tires.
In a deep first round, Swift isn’t a mortal lock to go in the top 20. After that, it’s all about fit and what certain teams might like. It’s a roll of the dice if there isn’t a must-have running back for teams to want.
Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor is bigger than Swift, has better pop, is faster, and … he has ball security issues, too, and carried the ball way too much in his college career.
However, at +190 – and considering Taylor might be the better running back than Swift – he’s a better value pick.
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
NEXT: 2020 NFL Draft Position Prop Bet No. 3
3. 1st Wide Receiver Drafted
PICK: Henry Ruggs +240
There’s value across the board with the wide receivers.
Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy is the best receiver in the draft, and he’s at a +110. That’s a fantastic pick – he’s the likely first one off the board.
Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb is going to be No. 1 or No. 1A on most boards, and he’s at +145. It wouldn’t be any sort of a stunner if he’s the first one taken.
The world is falling deeper and deeper in love with LSU’s Justin Jefferson, but … nah. Even at +7500, he’s not worth a flier as the top WR gone.
Alabama’s Henry Ruggs at +240 is a call that someone is looking for a missing speed piece to the receiving corps puzzle. With 4.27 wheels and 42″ vertical leap explosion – and the talent to go with it – he would’ve been the first receiver taken in each of the last four drafts, and probably would’ve gone second behind Amari Cooper in 2015.
Cincinnati went for pure speed with the ninth overall pick in 2017 when it took John Ross – but he was always banged up coming out of Washington, and he hasn’t worked out.
In 2007, Miami reached for the raw wheels of one-trick guy Ted Ginn Jr. He has carved out a nice career, but he’s not the all-around receiver that Ruggs is.
However, Ross and Ginn Jr. weren’t the first receivers off the board in their respective drafts.
The Panthers need a guy to take the top off a D – they pick at the 7. Jacksonville needs a speed target at the 9, Cleveland at 10, the Jets at 11, Las Vegas at 12 – they all need a guy who can fly.
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
NEXT: 2020 NFL Draft Position Prop Bet No. 2
2. 1st Offensive Lineman Drafted
PICK: Tristan Wirfs +100
Tristan Wirfs is going to be a terrific pro.
He’s a blaster of a run blocker, he’s versatile enough to play almost any position on an offensive line, and …
He probably shouldn’t be the first offensive lineman off the board, but probably will be.
I know, I know, I know. I had Louisville’s Mekhi Becton as the first offensive lineman drafted earlier in the piece as a great-value +500 call. But Wirfs at +100 is a bit more realistic while still getting enough value to be happy.
Alabama’s Jedrick Wills is the best offensive lineman in the draft, but for whatever they’re worth, most of the mocks are all into the possibility of Wirfs going in the top five overall, mainly because he’s a New York Giant type of pick.
The problem is that Wirfs will likely play most of his career as a high-end guard, but he’s not Quenton Nelson. He’ll start out at tackle and be fine, but he’s likely a right tackle who’ll crush everyone he gets his hands on.
Do you take a great grinder in the top five or as the top overall offensive lineman in a draft loaded at the position?
At +100, maybe.
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
NEXT: 2020 NFL Draft Position Prop Bet No. 1
CFN 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings
from the college perspective …
QB | RB | WR | TE | OT | OG & C
DE | DT | LB | CB | Safeties
Greatest NFL Draft Picks From Each School
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
32 Greatest Draft Picks of All-Time
Full 2020 NFL Draft Order
CFN Top 106 Player Rankings (1st 3 rounds)
1. 3rd Quarterback Drafted
PICK: Tua Tagovailoa +100
I will not fall for Joe Burrow at +2500 as the second quarterback drafted … I will not fall for Joe Burrow at +2500 as the second quarterback drafted … I will not …
I so want to fall for Joe Burrow at +2500 as the second quarterback drafted.
It’s not hard to envision a world where Cincinnati trades down, or likes Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa better, and Burrow falls a bit as teams wig out about his lack of big-time arm strength and get cold feet on the possible one-year wonder aspect.
But as a wise man one counseled me, “you can’t make a pick happen.”
If I could, Burrow at +10000 as the third quarterback drafted would be the most fun play of the 2020 NFL Draft.
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So even if I do fall for Burrow as the second quarterback drafted, he’s definitely going in the top two.
Gut feeling, Tagovailoa isn’t going to be the first one taken. I think he’s by a mile the best passer in the draft, but that’s a gigantic risk to take on a guy with his health issues.
But the prevailing belief is that he’ll be second – he’s a -139 to be the No. 2 QB taken. I think that’s going to be Herbert.
Herbert has the best all-around NFL quarterback tools in the draft, and he’s possibly the safest of the high-end calls. He doesn’t have the upside of Tagovailoa, but he doesn’t have the injury concerns. He doesn’t have the superstar stats of Burrow’s 2019, but he’s got the cannon.
Burrow to the Bengals at 1, Herbert to Miami at the 5, and Tagovailoa to the Chargers at the 6.
And then the trades will come to screw everything up, but if that doesn’t happen, Tua at +150.
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