What are the ten best NFL Draft prop bets to exploit and have fun with?
2019 NFL Draft Prospects
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | OGs & Cs | OTs
DTs | DEs | Edge Rush | LBs | CB | Safs
– 2 Round Mock Draft
Contact @PeteFiutak
It’s a little dangerous to play around with the NFL Draft prop bet world – mainly because you have no idea how the trades are going to go and how many different variables there will be – but there are always a few ridiculous values to be had.
With the odds taken from across the sports betting world – go shop around and you can find ones that are at least close to these – here are the ten that appear to be too good to pass up.
10. Running Backs Taken In First Round
LINE: Over 0.5 (-200), Under 0.5 (+150)
2019 NFL DRAFT PICK: Under
The only reason to even think about this is because of the under value.
It’s a pick with absolutely zero fun attached to it, especially because it only takes one team to pick up Alabama’s Josh Jacobs – who could go in the top ten, or fall out of the first round
If only takes one team to fall in love with a Miles Sanders from Penn State early on – more on that in a moment – for you to lose.
The biggest issue? Rashaad Penny.
He was the curveball pick by Seattle last year, and Sony Michel slid in just under the first round wire by New England in a surprise move. There’s always someone who screws things up, and again, just one running back, and that’s it.
2014 was the last time there weren’t any running backs gone in the first round – Washington’s Bishop Sankey was the first off the board to Tennessee with the 54th pick, by the way – and I don’t have any running backs going early in the final two-round mock draft.
Go really, really light with this, take the value, and cross your fingers.
9. More First Round Picks …
LINE: Offense +2.5 (+110), Defense -2.5 (-130)
2019 NFL DRAFT PICK: Offense
The tricky part here is the spread of 2.5.
Remember, there are 32 picks, so to take the defense and win, you need 18 players to be selected – that’s four more than will go on the offensive side – because the O wins if the D puts in 17.
That means you just have to hope for just 15 offensive players to be selected to win the +110. Who are the sure things? Count them out …
In some order, Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones, Jawaan Taylor, TJ Hockenson, Jonah Williams, Andre Dillard, DK Metcalf, Garrett Bradbury. Maybe a Jones or a Metcalf or a Bradbury will slide, but that means other offensive players would almost certainly take their place.
Here’s the other key part – the early second round value is all on the offensive side, so a few guys could slip into the late first.
If Drew Lock goes, and/or a running back, and/or another running back, and/or linemen like Chris Lindstrom, Dalton Risner or Erik McCoy, and/or Hollywood Brown or Noah Fant …
You’ll get to 15. You’ll have to sweat it out – last year there were 16, and it took the last two picks in the round to get there – but you’ll make it.
8. ACC & Big Ten Players Taken In First Round
LINE: Over 12.5 (-110), Under 12.5 (-110)
2019 NFL DRAFT PICK: Under
Start with the obvious.
Ohio State’s Nick Bosa will go in the first round from the Big Ten. So will Michigan’s Rashan Gary and Devin Bush, Iowa’s TJ Hockenson and Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins. That’s five.
From the ACC side, there’s no question that Clemson will put Christian Wilkins and Clelin Ferrell in the first round, and Dexter Lawrence is close to being a lock, too. So are Duke’s Daniel Jones and NC State’s Garrett Bradbury.
That’s ten between the two conferences.
Iowa’s Noah Fant should be a first rounder, and so should Florida State DE Brian Burns, but Fant isn’t a 100% lock, and neither are Burns or Bradberry. However, if Boston College G Chris Lindstrom slides on in, it’ll be dicey on the under.
There definitely won’t be more than 13, so you’re taking the shot on a Greedy Williams, or Dalton Risner, or Josh Jacobs, or any one of another few stars from other conferences to go in the first.
Hold your breath … take the under.
7. Quarterbacks Taken In First Round
LINE: Over 3.5 (-260), Under 3.5 (+220)
2019 NFL DRAFT PICK: Under
Work with me on this.
There’s a whole lot smoke out there right now when it comes to the quarterbacks and which teams will jockey for position to get them.
Here’s the issue – there aren’t a whole lot of teams that desperately have to spend a first round pick on a quarterback. If Josh Rosen is traded to Oakland, or Miami, or Washington, or the Giants, you’re screwed on the over.
Kyler Murray is the only absolute 100% sure-thing first round quarterback. Dwayne Haskins will slide, but he’ll go in the first, and so will Daniel Jones.
Just how much do you like Drew Lock?
The massive concern on the over is that once the three go, no one else will really need one – it’s a buyer’s market. So a team might be able to wait until the second or even the third to get a Will Grier or a Ryan Finley.
Or a Lock.
So here’s the call. Four will go in the first round, buuuuuuuuuut …
The -260 isn’t cool. Go light, take a chance on the under, and hope to hit the +220.
– SportsBookWire.com’s Top 5 Best Prop Bets
6. SEC Players Taken In First Round
LINE: Over 12.5 (+110), Under 12.5 (-130)
2019 NFL DRAFT PICK: Under
Ten SEC players went in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. 12 went in the first round in 2017, and eight were selected among the first 31 picks in 2016.
And now the world is asking for you to assume 13 or more are going to go this year?
Josh Allen and Quinnen Williams are going to go in the first round.
Jawaan Taylor, Devin White, Deandre Baker and Jonah Williams are going in the first 32, too.
After those six, there are several SEC players who should go in the first round, but could absolutely slide on out and into the second.
Just how much is everyone worried about the Mississippi State linemen (Montez Sweat’s heart and Jeffery Simmons’ knee)? Will Bulldog S Johnathan Abram go? All three probably will, and you’ll still be okay with the under.
Are Greedy Williams and Josh Jacobs sure-thing first rounders? How about Drew Lock? How about Erik McCoy? How about DK Metcalf?
The SEC will put a whole lot of players in, but this is a strong draft up top across the board. The final count should top out at 12.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. ACC Players Taken In First Round
LINE: Over 6 (-120), Under 6 (EVEN)
2019 NFL DRAFT PICK: Over
Six ACC players were taken in last year’s draft, but just four went in 2017 and four in 2016.
This year will make up for it.
It’ll take a while to get started, and then comes the wave.
Duke’s Daniel Jones is a first rounder. NC State C Garrett Bradberry, and Boston College G Chris Lindstrom have the potential to go in the top 32. If that happens, it’s over.
Florida State Brian Burns will be taken on Thursday, and there’s a distant shot that NC State QB Ryan Finley goes, too.
And that doesn’t include the Tigers. It’s not going to be all Clemson players who’ll get this done, but the defending national champs will do their share of heavy lifting.
Christian Williams and Clelin Ferrell are sure things, and Dexter Lawrence should hear his name, too.
You might have to wait until around the tenth pick to get this all going, but enjoy the over.
NEXT: He’ll slide, maybe …
4. Dwayne Haskins Draft Position
LINE: Over 6.5 (-300), Under 6.5 (+250)
2019 NFL DRAFT PICK: Over
Is it all a rumor? Is it all a smokescreen? Is it all scouts and general managers throwing things out there to see if they’ll stick?
It might be a bit of a cliché that no one really knows anything among the pundits and experts, but right now, trust me … no one really knows anything, because no one has a clue where the quarterbacks will go.
Is Kyler Murray really going to go No. 1 overall? That can’t be real … Arizona isn’t going to be dumb enough to give up on Josh Rosen, the 2018 tenth pick overall – and a quarterback, too – for a bag of Cheetos, will it?
Yeah, probably. And then the fun begins.
Can Duke’s Daniel Jones really be selected ahead of Dwayne Haskins? Some weird rumors are out there that Missouri’s Drew Lock is the second quarterback off the board.
But none of that matters with this prop bet. Murray, Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Josh Allen, and maybe Ed Oliver will likely make up the top five in some way, and then it’s up to the Giants at six, and they need a quarterback.
This is where Haskins should go … if it’s not Jones. And if the Giants don’t trade down.
There’s a chance you don’t just win on the 6.5 over with Haskins; you might beat it by a mile.
2019 NFL Draft Prospects
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | OGs & Cs | OTs
DTs | DEs | Edge Rush | LBs | CB | Safs
– 2 Round Mock Draft
NEXT: There’s no Saquon, so …
3. First Running Back Taken
LINE: Josh Jacobs -450, David Montgomery +700, Miles Sanders +950, Justice Hill +2000, Damien Harris +2300
2019 NFL DRAFT PICK: Miles Sanders, Penn State +950
So, you want the hot scuttlebutt around the draft world sewing circle?
Penn State’s Miles Sanders has turned into the IT guy among the running back prospects. Of course, that means a fat load of nothing since everyone who makes the decisions on these things is in the misinformation business right now, but his name keeps coming up.
Okay, so how do you know a team doesn’t want a guy? It mentions his name.
On the flip side, no one seems to be talking about Alabama’s Josh Jacobs right now – or if anyone is, it’s something negative – which means the love is probably there.
However, at -450 on Jacobs, he’s not worth it.
Iowa State’s David Montgomery is the best and most ready-made sure-thing back in this draft, but it’s the potential of Sanders to be Saquon Barkley lite that’s getting everyone so excited.
There’s a lot of tread on the tires, and conventional wisdom is that he’s going to be a much better pro than a collegian. Throw in that Jacobs has been underwhelming at times in the workout circuit, and add that Sanders is a +950 to be the first back off the board, and there’s your value play.
NEXT: You’re going to be well on your way five minutes into the thing …
2. Big 12 & Pac-12 Players Taken In Round 1
LINE: Over 4.5 (-130), Under 4.5 (+110)
2019 NFL DRAFT PICK: Over
Last season, the Big 12 and Pac-12 combined got to five players taken in the first 15 picks. But that was mostly because the Pac-12 did most of the work. This year, the Big 12 should be able to help the cause a little bit more.
The under is the value call, but getting to five Big 12 and Pac-12 prospects and the over is the more likely scenario.
Kyler Murray will go No. 1. There’s one.
And then comes the long, long wait.
Assume Washington State OT Andre Dillard goes somewhere in the top 32 mix, but that’s probably it for the Pac-12 if Washington CB Byron Murphy doesn’t go. Even if he doesn’t, you should be fine if Oklahoma OT/OG Cody Ford slides on in.
You could also really, really use OU star Marquise Brown to be one of the first receivers off the board to get to five, or else you’ll have to cross your fingers that Kansas State’s versatile offensive lineman Dalton Risner gets the call.
It’s not insane to hope for Arizona State WR N’Keal Harry to slip into the top 32, or hope for Washington S Taylor Rapp to make it, or for fellow Husky Kaleb McGary to be a bit of a surprise very, very late.
There are just enough possibilities to get to five. Again, though, you’ll have to work for it.
NEXT: SEC … SEC …
1. Big Ten Players Taken In Round 1
LINE: Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-+110)
2019 NFL DRAFT PICK: Under
No matter what school or league you root for, take the under on the Big Ten getting 7.5 players into the first round, and then sit back and hope for all the Mississippi State and Alabama guys to go where they should, and expect the ACC to make a nice run late in the round.
A big, surprising dud in last year’s draft, the Big Ten only saw four players get the call in the first round after seven players were selected in 2017.
Even with five Ohio State Buckeyes going early in 2016, you have to go all the way back to 2006 for the last time the Big Ten had more than seven first rounders.
This year, there’s no question that Ohio State’s Nick Bosa and Dwayne Haskins, Michigan’s Rashan Gary and Devin Bush, and Iowa’s TJ Hockenson are all top picks. So of course you’ll be nervous that the draft is already up to five Big Teners.
But the options slow down fast.
Iowa TE Noah Fant will probably end up getting picked early, and there’s a shot that Penn State RB Miles Sanders gets into the top 32. Even if both of those things happen, you’re still at seven – and then what?
The best part about this is that there aren’t many other Big Ten players who’ll be sure things to make the top 50, much less the top 32.
Ohio State WR Parris Campbell is a long shot first rounder, and fellow Buckeye Dre’mont Jones MIGHT be able to slide in late if someone doesn’t want to wait for a defensive tackle. If those two get called on Thursday, and Sanders and Fant go, too, you’re dealing with bad luck forces beyond your control.
Michigan DE Chase Winovich? Penn State CB Amani Oruwariye? Maryland S Darnell Savage? Great players all, but not in the first round.
Assume seven, and everything will be fine.
2019 NFL Draft Prospects
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | OGs & Cs | OTs
DTs | DEs | Edge Rush | LBs | CB | Safs
– 2 Round Mock Draft
