FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – A patch of stormy weather off Africa remains likely to form a tropical depression and head west across the Atlantic, according to the 8 p.m. Friday update from the National Hurricane Center.
The depression would be the first tropical cyclone to form in the Atlantic in more than a month, since the July 1 appearance of the storm system that would become Hurricane Elsa. The number of storms is likely to increase in frequency over the next few weeks, as the season ramps up toward its September peak.
The disturbance has a 50% chance of forming a tropical cyclone, a rotating storm system that could range in strength from depression to tropical storm to hurricane. It’s too soon to say whether this one would be a threat to land. If the system achieves tropical storm strength, it would get a name. The next two names on the list are Fred and Grace.
The potential cyclone is located south of the Cabo Verde Islands, traditional spawning grounds for cyclones during the peak of hurricane season. The frequency of storm starts increasing in early August and reaches its high point around Sept. 10.
A second area of stormy weather is also being watched. Located in the mid-Atlantic, it has a 20% chance of forming a tropical cyclone, according to the hurricane center. It could see some slow development by Sunday and into early next week as it approaches the far eastern Caribbean, forecasters said.
A third area of thunderstorms has a 10% chance of developing the next five days, the hurricane center said.
AccuWeather, the private forecasting service, said storm activity in the Atlantic may be picking up, after a month of quiet.
Conditions over the Atlantic have grown more favorable for storm formation, with a decline in the factors that can shut down storms, AccuWeather said. There has been a decline in wind shear, the high-altitude crosswinds that can tear up storms, and a decreased concentration of the dry, dusty air that can inhibit storm growth.
“We have been seeing a decline in the extent of dry air and dust over the zone from Africa to the Caribbean this week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said in a statement Friday.
The latest outlook indicates a tropical depression is most likely to form over the eastern Atlantic by Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 p.m. update. Hurricane specialists are expecting the tropical wave to push off the coast of Africa in the next day as Atlantic conditions are ripe for development.
The system had a 30% chance of developing in the next two days and a 50% chance of developing in the next five days. It is expected to move west to west-northwest at about 15 mph.
A pessimistic revision to this season’s Atlantic hurricane forecast was released Wednesday.
The forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicts seven to 10 hurricanes, up from the preseason forecast of six to 10. The agency predicts a total of 15 to 21 named storms, which means those with winds speeds of at least 39 mph, up from its earlier prediction of 13 to 20. The number of expected major hurricanes, which means those with winds of at least 111 mph, held steady at three to five.
“With less interruptive winds in place, tropical storms and hurricanes can more easily become better organized — as opposed to during an El Niño year when winds can keep systems in check,” according to AccuWeather.
So far this season, there have been four tropical storms and one hurricane. Hurricane Elsa formed a month ago before weakening back to tropical-storm strength and hitting Florida’s Gulf Coast.
On average, fifth-named storms usually form in late August, according to AccuWeather.
Last year, by the end of hurricane season on Nov. 30, meteorologists cataloged 30 named storms — the most recorded in a single year.
