While searching for college football trends to bet on for Week 0, one stat in particular caught my attention. Per Action Network:
During the last 5 years, teams favored by 30 points or more are just 35-49 (41.7%) ATS in their season openers, finishing below .500 ATS in all five years
That’s not exactly a small sample size. And in Week 0, two teams were favored by more 30+ points. UNC opened at -34.5 against Florida A&M and won 56-24, failing to beat the spread by a field goal (the line closed at FAMU +45, which was no doubt influenced by the Rattlers missing a ton of players and nearly canceling the game).
Florida State opened as -35.5 favorites against Duquesne but closed at -41.5. FSU won 47-7, failing to cover the closing line.
So now we may be looking at a bonafide edge. In the last five years, teams are 35-51 ATS in their season-opener when favored by 30+ points. There are seven teams who open their season in Week 1 with similar spreads.
I’m not ready to say you should hammer these lines immediately. Rather, you may want to wait until right before kickoff to see if there’s any favorable movement. That’s what I’ll be doing here and these are the game I’m keeping an eye on.
All lines are as of Aug 31. Odds via Tipico.
Tennessee (-35.5) vs. Ball State
When: Thursday, Sep. 1 at 7 p.m. ET
Where: Neyland Stadium
Trends
- Tennessee went 1-2 ATS when favored by 30+ points in 2021
- Tennessee failed to cover a 2021 season-opening spread of -37 against Bowling Green (38-6, Vols) and did not cover the opening line of -34
- Tennessee went 5-8 ATS in 2021
Confidence in Tennessee to cover: Medium. Ball State might hang around and make this spread interesting, but a few more points would be helpful here.
Minnesota (-36.5) vs. New Mexico State
When: Thursday, Sep. 1 at 9 p.m. ET
Where: Huntington Bank Stadium
Trends
- Minnesota was 0-1 ATS when favored by 30+ points in 2021
- Minnesota was 7-4-1 ATS overall in 2021
- NMSU is 0-1 ATS to begin 2022
- NMSU was 0-2 ATS when +30 or greater in 2021
- NSMU was 8-5 ATS overall in 2021
- 55% of all bets and 54% of all money wagered is on Minnesota (-38.5)
Confidence in Minnesota to cover: High. New Mexico State just isn’t good.
No. 8 Michigan (-30.5) vs. Colorado State
When: Saturday, Sep. 3 at Noon ET
Where: Michigan Stadium
Trends
- Michigan went 11-3 ATS in 2021
- Michigan is 2-4 ATS when favored by 30+ points since 2016
- Michigan is 2-6 ATS against the Mountain West Conference
- CSU went 4-8 ATS in 2021
- CSU is 5-0 ATS in last five against ranked opponents.
Confidence in Michigan to cover: Low, but this line has been on the move. Some books have Michigan at -27.5, which doesn’t interest me at all. If it moves back above Michigan -30, I’ll be too tempted to stay away.
No. 9 Oklahoma (-31.5) vs. UTEP
When: Saturday, Sep. 3 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
Trends
- Oklahoma went 6-6-1 ATS in 2021
- Oklahoma went 1-2 ATS in 2021 when favored by 30+ (including a season-opening 40-35 win against Tulane as 31-point favorites)
- Oklahoma is 0-3 ATS in its last three season-opening games
- UTEP 0-1 ATS in 2022
- UTEP is 1-4 ATS when 30+ point underdogs since 2016
Confidence in Oklahoma to cover: Low. This is a line worth watching if it keeps moving in OU’s favor. A new coach, a new QB—it’s going to take a little time get things rolling in this one. Hopefully the clock runs out before the Sooners get it together.
No. 14 USC (-32.5) vs. Rice
When: Saturday, Sep. 3 at 6:00 p.m. ET
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Trends
- USC went 4-8 ATS in 2021
- USC is 0-1 ATS when favored by 30+ points since 2016
- Rice went 3-9 ATS in 2021
- Rice is 4-1 ATS when as an underdog of 30+ points since 2016
- Rice is 4-1 ATS in last five on the road against AP Top 15 teams
- Per Action Network, 72 percent of the money wagered on the spread is on Rice to cover
Confidence in USC to cover: Low. For many of the same reasons that I don’t feel great about the Sooners covering. Lincoln Riley may have brought his QB with him from Oklahoma, but he still has his work cut out for him.
No. 1 Alabama (-41.5) vs. Utah State
When: Saturday, Sep. 3 at 7:00 p.m. ET
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium
Trends
- Alabama went 7-7 ATS in 2021
- Alabama went 2-1 ATS when favored by 30+ points in 2021
- Alabama is 8-2 ATS in last 10 season openers
- Alabama is 12-8 ATS as AP No. 1 team since 2017
- Utah State is 0-1 ATS in 2022
- Utah State went 9-4 ATS in 2021
- Utah State is 4-1 ATS in last five road games
- Utah State is 1-4 ATS in last 5 vs AP Top 5
Confidence in Alabama to cover: Low. For real. And this is not me betting Utah State under the influence of tequila. Nick Saban knows his squad—certainly his offense—and his starters shouldn’t be playing the whole game.
Texas (-37.5) vs. UL Monroe
When: Saturday, Sep. 3 at 8:00 p.m. ET
Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Trends
- Texas went 5-7 ATS in 2021
- Texas is 3-1 ATS when favored by 30+ points since 2016
- ULM went 5-6-1 ATS in 2021
- ULM is 3-3 ATS as 30+ point underdogs since 2016
Confidence in Texas to cover: Medium. I like this line, but I don’t love it. Texas barely missed out on the Top 25 and will probably be ranked by this time next week. If the line moves further in the Longhorns’ favor, I’ll jump on ULM, I’m just not there yet.
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