A simulated 2026 World Cup group stage draw gives the U.S. men’s national team’s good odds of advancing to the knockout stage.
The USMNT are riding a five-game unbeaten streak after defeating Uruguay to close out November. While they won’t play another international friendly until March, manager Mauricio Pochettino and his players have their eyes fixed on the upcoming group stage draw.
The event takes place Dec. 5 at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., though the field hasn’t been fully confirmed yet. Only 42 of the 48 teams that will make up the tournament have qualified at this stage, while the remaining six will be determined through UEFA and intercontinental playoffs in March.
That being said, simulations are already ongoing as coaches, players and fans try to map out a prospective journey. Being in Pot 1 as a host nation automatically avoids clashes with top dogs like Spain, France, England, Brazil and Argentina.
One simulation run by Sports Illustrated puts the USMNT in a strong position to not only advance, but possibly top their group kicking off a magical summer run.
USMNT Simulated Group Stage Draw
The USMNT face CONMEBOL’s Uruguay, CAF’s Egypt and AFC’s Saudi Arabia in the simulation. Chances are Pochettino and co. will fancy themselves if this group became a reality.
Despite numerous absences and a heavily rotated side, the USMNT routed Uruguay in their final match of 2025. A first-half blitz saw Sebastian Berhalter and Alex Freeman score their first senior international goals going on to win 5–1 in a convincing performance. La Celeste were missing key players as well, but the performance instilled belief in Pochettino’s project.
Lineups would look largely different if they meet again next summer and the stakes raised. Yet, the USMNT would likely fancy their odds after getting some revenge for their 2024 Copa América exit.
Next up would be Mohamed Salah and Egypt. These two countries have only played twice in a competitive setting, with the USMNT winning their last meeting 3–0 in the 2009 FIFA Confederations Cup. Salah, being the talismanic presence that he is, can determine any game on his own. Still, the USMNT should be favored on home soil.
Closing out their prospective opponents are Saudi Arabia. The USMNT defeated Hervé Renard’s side in the Gold Cup this past summer without names like Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and Folarin Balogun. Given their improved tactical look and the players that should be involved next summer, the USMNT stand a real chance of advancing to the knockout stage.
Two-time champions AAaUruguay will be favored to advance as well, with the third spot up for grabs. The USMNT vs. Uruguay clash would likely determine who tops the group. If the host nation slips up along the way, they can still qualify if they are among the eight best third-place finishers.
Full 2026 World Cup Group Stage Simulation
Here are the rest of the groups from the Sports Illustrated simulation ahead of the real thing:
Mexico Face Tricky Road
Host nation Mexico face a difficult path having to take on Japan, Ivory Coast and New Zealand. El Tri are winless in their last six games since defeating the USMNT in the Gold Cup final. They need to show improvement between now and the World Cup if they’re to be taken seriously.
They should advance as, at least, a third-place team from this prospective group.
Canada Poised for Knockouts
Canada would battle Ecuador, Jordan and UEFA-qualifying darling Scotland. The Tartan Army needed a late stoppage time winner from Kieran Tierney to top their group, sending Denmark to the playoffs. Given Andy Robertson’s emotional tribute to the late Diogo Jota after the game, Scotland will be highly motivated to make the most of their first World Cup appearance since 1998.
Like Mexico, Canada should advance from this group.
Netherlands Handed Strong Draw
Italy must go through the playoffs once again this World Cup cycle hoping to avoid a similar heartbreak to 2022. If they qualify and are placed alongside Netherlands in this group, they would be the overwhelming favorites to advance.
Spain Look to Conquer World Again
As reigning European champions, Spain are one of the favorites to win the tournament next summer. If this is their group, they should qualify for the knockout stage with ease. Among the rest, South Korea and Türkiye are names to watch this tournament.
Curaçao hope to shock the globe after becoming the smallest nation by population to qualify for a World Cup.
Last Dances for De Bruyne, Modrić
Belgium and Croatia in a simulated Group F would be overwhelming favorites. This could be the last World Cup fans get to see the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Luka Modrić play for their respective countries as well.
Can Argentina Repeat?
Argentina dominate narratives coming into the tournament. La Albiceleste are not only defending their title as world’s best, but this World Cup will likely be Lionel Messi’s last. All eyes will be on the superstar to see if he can go back-to-back.
They slipped up in the group stage back in Qatar losing to Saudi Arabia, so Senegal and Austria are potentially tricky fixtures.
France Chase Third Consecutive Final Appearance
The 2026 World Cup will be Didier Deschamps’s last as France boss with Zinedine Zidane rumored as a potential successor. Can he guide Les Bleus to another final appearance? Their simulated group gives them a strong chance of advancing as they look to right the wrongs of a heartbreaking shootout defeat in 2022.
Elsewhere, Iran and Paraguay likely fight for the second seed. DR Congo have yet to book their spot through the playoffs, so this group could become a bit more difficult.
Germany’s Search for Success
Julian Nagelsmann’s Germany would be favored to advance from a simulated Group I, though they are still looking for a signature moment since their 2014 triumph. Die Mannschaft were bounced from the last two World Cups in the group stage. Their quarterfinal exit from Euro 2024 also left much to be desired.
At minimum, Switzerland will fancy themselves against Germany in a match that could determine who tops this prospective group. Panama and South Africa would hope to qualify by being one of the eight best third-place sides.
Ronaldo’s Last Chance at the World Cup
2026 also likely represents Cristiano Ronaldo’s final World Cup in a Portugal shirt. Unfortunately for the reigning UEFA Nations League champions, they’ve been drawn into this simulation’s group of death.
Colombia were runner-ups at the 2024 Copa América, while Ghana are always a tough opponent in international competitions.
Portugal’s advancement here would be difficult and a mouthwatering clash against Erling Haaland and Norway, qualified for the first time since 1998, is undeniably box office.
Can England Get Over the Line?
Thomas Tuchel leads a talented England into a World Cup. If not for Harry Kane’s penalty miss against France, who knows how far the Three Lions could’ve gone in Qatar last time. The German manager looks to get over the line in an international tournament after Sir Gareth Southgate came up just short in consecutive Euros.
Morocco would be their toughest test here after finishing fourth last World Cup. Poland must go through the playoffs with Haiti rounding out this group.
The Curious Case of Brazil
There’s no doubting Brazil’s pedigree. Yet, they have multiple question marks heading into 2026. Carlo Ancelotti must get the most out of his players as he continues to search for consistency. They would be favored over most sides in this group, but how far this iteration of Brazil can go remains to be seen.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as World Cup Group Stage Mock Draw: USMNT Handed Favorable Path to Knockouts.
