Will China Bomb Taiwan Soon? Attack Drones Assembled Near Taiwan Strait, Report Says

A recent report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, cited by Reuters, identified six air bases near the Taiwan Strait hosting converted J-6 fighters, now designated the J-6W. While officials stress there is no confirmed timeline for an invasion, the scale and positioning of the aircraft point to a strategy designed to overwhelm defences in the earliest stages of any conflict.

Satellite Images Reveal Unusual Build-Up

The Mitchell Institute's 'China Airpower Tracker' report, based on commercial satellite imagery, shows what appear to be lines of swept-winged J-6 aircraft — originally designed in the 1960s and based on the Soviet MiG-19 — at five bases in Fujian Province and one in Guangdong Province, placing them within close operational range of Taiwan. According to the report, at least 200 J-6W drones are already deployed, with estimates suggesting over 500 ageing jets may have been converted in total.

How China's Converted Drones Could Be Used

Analysts say the J-6W drones are not typical unmanned aerial vehicles but are designed to function more like disposable cruise missiles. J. Michael Dahm, a senior fellow at the institute, told Reuters that 'they will attack Taiwan, US or allied targets in large numbers, effectively overwhelming air defences.' The strategy, he said, is to deploy all the drones within the first hours of a PLA operation. Each J-6W carries a maximum speed of Mach 1.3, a 700-kilometre range, and a 250-kilogram payload.

By launching waves of aircraft early in a conflict, China could force Taiwan to expend costly interceptor missiles on relatively low-value targets, exhausting defensive systems before more advanced weapons — such as ballistic missiles or modern fighter jets — are deployed.

'An Air Defence Nightmare'

Peter Layton, a visiting fellow at Griffith University, described a potential assault as 'an air defence nightmare', involving simultaneous waves of missiles, aircraft and drones travelling at varying speeds and altitudes. This layered approach would complicate interception efforts and strain even advanced defence networks. The converted J-6W drones are fast and require expensive surface-to-air missiles to neutralise, making them disproportionately costly to counter.

The cost imbalance is significant. A PAC-3 interceptor costs approximately $3.7 million (approximately £2.9 million) per round, while a Tien Kung-3 interceptor costs approximately $620,000 (approximately £490,000). China, by contrast, produced over 4,500 J-6 airframes between 1958 and 1986 — providing a large reserve of aircraft that can be converted at comparatively low cost. Analysis published this month suggests that a saturation launch of between 700 and 1,000 J-6W drones in a short window could require Taiwan to fire between 1,400 and 2,000 interceptor missiles in response, a figure that approaches or exceeds its current estimated stockpile.

Taiwan's Response: Preparing for Drone Warfare

Taiwan's defence officials have acknowledged the growing threat, describing the drones as a form of 'asymmetric warfare that cannot be ignored'. A senior Taiwanese security official noted that intercepting them presents a 'cost-efficiency issue', as defenders must use high-value missiles against relatively inexpensive targets. Taiwan currently operates nine Patriot PAC-2/3 batteries and 12 Tien Kung-2/3 batteries, with additional bases planned for completion by the end of 2026. In response to the threat, Taiwan is accelerating efforts to acquire next-generation counter-drone systems to improve its ability to neutralise large swarms without depleting its missile reserves.

Is an Invasion Imminent?

Despite the concerning developments, intelligence assessments remain mixed on the likelihood of a near-term invasion. According to recent assessments, the US intelligence community does not believe China is currently planning to invade Taiwan by 2027 — a view that contrasts with earlier Pentagon assessments indicating Beijing aims to be capable of winning such a conflict within that timeframe. China continues to assert that Taiwan is part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force; Taiwan firmly rejects these claims.

Analysts note, however, that capability and intent are separate questions. The J-6W build-up does not confirm a decision to act, but it does suggest China is investing in the tools to act quickly if that decision is made. As Dahm's analysis makes clear, the drone fleet is optimised for the opening hours of a conflict rather than sustained attrition, meaning its strategic value would depend on swift, decisive use.

A New Era of Warfare

The deployment of the J-6W fleet reflects a broader shift in modern military strategy. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have demonstrated the increasing importance of drones, particularly those that can be produced cheaply and deployed in large numbers. China is investing heavily in both advanced and low-cost drone technologies, including stealth UAVs and swarm capabilities — the converted J-6 fleet represents one layer in a multi-tiered airpower strategy that blends legacy systems with newer capabilities.

Whether the positioning of these aircraft near the Taiwan Strait signals imminent action or long-term preparation remains unclear. Analysts say the build-up underscores China's intent to develop capabilities that could quickly degrade Taiwan's defences in the opening phase of any conflict, though whether or when those capabilities would be used remains a matter of ongoing assessment.