FedEx stock sank Wednesday after reporting better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue late Tuesday. However, management decided against providing an initial full-year outlook for the first time in more than a decade due to the uncertainty regarding President Donald Trump's global trade and tariff policies.
The company announced that 2025 Q4 EPS grew 12% to $6.07 while sales totaled $22.2 billion, increasing less than 1% compared to a year ago. Analyst consensus had Q4 earnings of $5.82 a share and revenue coming in at $21.74 billion, according to FactSet.
For fiscal Q1 2026, FedEx forecasts flat to a 2% increase for revenue and diluted earnings between $2.90 to $3.50 per share. The company expects a $170 million headwind from international exports, primarily driven by "global trade policy impacts," particularly in its "Trans-Pacific lane."
However, FedEx decided against offering an initial full fiscal 2026 earnings outlook for the first time in more than 13 years, noting that the "macroeconomic environment remains uncertain."
Analyst consensus has the full-fiscal year EPS growing 5% to $19.10 with revenue increasing about 2% to $89.58 billion.
Chief Financial Officer John Dietrich said on the fiscal Q4 earnings call that FedEx is "committed to being transparent and resuming our full-year outlook for adjusted EPS, effective tax rate, and capital returns as visibility improves."
"While FY 2026 presents unique challenges and uncertainties, what remains unchanged is our commitment to driving stockholder returns and building a more profitable FedEx," Dietrich said Tuesday.
Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker wrote early Wednesday that in recent weeks investor conversation had "leaned more toward an actual FY26 guide."
"As such, the lack of FY26 guidance (with management citing economic uncertainty on trade policy) will be seen as a negative surprise," Shanker said.
FedEx Stock And Cost Cutting Mode
Dietrich added Tuesday that FedEx remains in cost cutting mode, noting that the company continues to "prioritize investments that support increasing efficiency and reducing our cost to serve as opposed to capacity expansion."
At the end of fiscal Q2 in late December, FedEx announced intentions to separate FedEx Freight, creating a separate publicly traded company in about 18 months. FedEx has implemented several cost-cutting initiatives through the past year, including combining its ground, air and other operations in a single company.
FedEx stock fell as low as 216.16 intraday before paring those losses, finishing Wednesday's stock market down 3.3% to 221.95.
Shanker wrote Wednesday that FedEx stock appears to be worth closer to 200 than 250.
Entering Wednesday's stock market open, FedEx stock had declined around 18% in 2025 while United Parcel Service had dropped more than 20%. Collectively, the five stocks in the IBD-tracked Transport-Air Freight industry group were down 16.4% on the year's stock market.
FDX stock has a 21-day average true range of 1.89%. The ATR metric, available on IBD's MarketSurge charting tool, gauges the characteristic breadth of a stock's behavior. Stocks that tend to make large jumps or dives in daily stock market action, the kind that can trigger sell rules and shake investors out of a stock, have a high ATR. Stocks that tend to make more incremental moves have lower ATRs.
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FedEx stock has a 37 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 21 Relative Strength Rating and a 75 EPS Rating.
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