Good morning. Donald Trump’s recent outburst that it would be “unacceptable” if the US can’t gain control over Greenland continues to drag the world’s largest island into the centre of global geopolitics. The largely autonomous Danish territory, sparsely populated but strategically vast, sits between North America, Europe and Russia – and as the Arctic ice melts, its importance is growing fast.
Climate heating is shrinking the Arctic ice cap, opening up sea routes that were once the preserve of icebreakers and exposing valuable mineral resources beneath Greenland’s retreating ice sheet. Now what was once seen as a frozen backwater is being viewed increasingly as a strategic prize, helping to explain why Trump’s previously outlandish-sounding threats are being taken far more seriously in Europe’s capitals. They have begun to push back against his declaration of tariffs.
For today’s newsletter I spoke to our Nordic correspondent, Miranda Bryant, who has just returned from Greenland’s capital, Nuuk, where families are quietly wondering whether they will have to flee as politicians find themselves in the sights of a superpower. First, the headlines.
Five big stories
UK politics | Robert Jenrick was described as “the new sheriff in town” and the politician needed to give Reform UK political “heft”, according to a leaked media plan. Romford MP Andrew Rosindell has also defected.
Jeffrey Epstein | A New York City artist who said Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell shopped her around to men is among the survivors claiming that Esptein used the lure of a university education to ensnare her.
Iran | President Masoud Pezeshkian warned on Sunday that any attack on the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be a declaration of war.
Social media | More than 60 Labour MPs have written to UK prime minister Keir Starmer urging him to back a social media ban for under-16s, with peers due to vote on the issue this week.
China | China’s proposed mega embassy in London is expected to get the go-ahead this week, after years of wrangling.
In depth: A gateway between continents
As the map above shows, Greenland has always had the potential to be strategically important – but until recently it was locked away by ice. Now it is becoming a gateway between continents and a platform for projecting military and economic power.
“I went to Nuuk this time last year, just before Trump became president but after Donald Trump Jr had visited,” Miranda tells me. “Returning this January, the tone and the mood was quite markedly different in terms of how seriously Trump’s threats were being taken.”
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Why Greenland, and why now?
The ice retreat doesn’t just make the map look different – it makes shipping routes viable, exposes seabeds and minerals, and brings the high north into the everyday business of global trade and security. Greenland has gone from being a distant outpost to a potentially vital piece of infrastructure.
Trump is not inventing the Arctic’s strategic importance. In any future conflict between nuclear powers, missiles would pass over the polar region. The US already operates early-warning systems at Pituffik in north-west Greenland. Russia has rebuilt cold war-era bases across its Arctic coastline. China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” and is expanding its polar presence. For Trump, access and cooperation are no longer enough. Control is the prize.
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Greenland’s political fault lines
That has a knock-on effect on Greenland’s own politics. Miranda tells me that all of the major parties support eventual independence from Denmark on one timescale or another. However, in the short term, Trump’s rhetoric has forced a brutal reprioritisation: security first, sovereignty later.
Premier of Greenland Jens-Frederik Nielsen stated: “Greenland does not want to be part of the US … We choose the Greenland we know today, which is a part of the Kingdom of Denmark”. This statement gave people something solid to hold on to. Naleraq, the second biggest party in the Inatsisartut after last year’s election, thinks Greenland should negotiate directly with the US, without Denmark. That’s exactly the kind of crack Trump can try to prise open.
Denmark’s own military presence in Greenland is, Miranda tells me, more than the two dog sleds Trump has mocked it as. But it is not exactly a “dominant presence” on the island.
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The resources at stake
The melting ice is also turning Greenland into an economic frontier.
New shipping routes promise to redraw the global trade map, while the island’s rare earth reserves – critical to everything from smartphones to guided missiles – have become a focus of growing foreign interest. Greenland ranks among the world’s top countries for rare earth deposits, but until now, much of it has simply been too frozen to exploit.
Trump has already shown how he links security and resources. One of the first acts of his second term was to force Ukraine into an agreement giving the US a share of future profits from its minerals. Greenland fits the same pattern. Over the weekend Trump began threatening a tariff trade war with Europe over Greenland, a move described by British prime minister Keir Starmer as wrong in a call with the US president on Sunday.
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When a threat stops feeling hypothetical
This is not an abstract power game. In Nuuk, families are now tracking military flights on their phones and talking to their children about what it would mean to become American.
Miranda says the difference is not just Trump’s words but the sense that they might now be acted on. “People told me that Venezuela made a huge difference to how serious the threat feels,” she says. “When he first started saying he wanted the US to acquire Greenland, it was strange, and almost laughable. Now it feels real.”
Trump’s threats may still prove to be bluster. But in a world where international law feels increasingly fragile, even the possibility of a superpower deciding to take what it wants is enough to make a small, peaceful society feel exposed.
“People are thinking through things they never imagined having to think about,” she says. “Do you leave before it happens? Do you wait? If soldiers arrive, do you submit? Do you protest? Will there be shooting? There’s been no guidance from the authorities, so people are trying to work it out for themselves.”
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Europe’s impossible dilemma
Greenlandic leaders were visibly emotional after the Washington meeting. Miranda points out that Greenland’s foreign minister Vivian Motzfeldt later gave an emotional interview telling a broadcaster how intense the pressure had been. This is not normal diplomacy. This is people being leaned on by a superpower.
When I recently spoke to our diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, about Europe’s response to Trump’s actions in Venezuela, he explained how realpolitik and fear leave leaders with limited room for manoeuvre. The Guardian’s defence and security editor, Dan Sabbagh, noted this week that Trump’s approach “underlines a crude return to cold war style military concerns in the White House.”
Denmark can offer more troops, more bases and more cooperation – and is already trying to do so – but it cannot easily confront a nuclear-armed partner that is openly talking about conquest. That leaves Copenhagen, Brussels and Nuuk trying to defend a principle that suddenly looks fragile: that borders cannot be changed by force, even when the ice around them is melting. And that doesn’t offer much reassurance on the ground.
One woman Miranda met recently panicked after seeing a US Hercules aircraft leave the American base at Pituffik on a flight-tracking app. “She thought it was coming to Nuuk to invade,” she says. “That’s the level of anxiety now – people watching the skies and the seas themselves because they don’t know what else to do.”
Guardian live
Guardian newsroom: Year One of Trumpism: Is Britain Emulating the US?
On Wednesday 21 January, join Jonathan Freedland, Tania Branigan, Anand Menon and Nick Lowles as they reflect on the first year of Donald Trump’s second presidency – and to ask if Britain could be set on the same path.
Book tickets here
What else we’ve been reading
I enjoyed Steve Rose’s interview with Ed Zitron, the tech author, podcaster and cult AI sceptic, who one supporter called “a lighthouse in a storm of insane hypercapitalist bullshit”. Lucinda Everett, newsletters team
Davos always has a hint of Marie Antoinette about it – but ahead of the next World Economic Forum meeting Heather Stewart and Dan Sabbagh wonder whether we’re reaching “off with her head” territory, with Donald Trump intent on smashing up the establishment rules. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
Emily Retter’s piece, about the rising number of cases of Scabies, and the misery of those suffering with the condition, makes for alarming reading. Lucinda
Cory Doctorow offers a degree of reassurance for the future. Even as he’s sure the AI bubble – “asbestos in the walls” of our society – will burst, there is hope that we can rebuild something better from the toxic wreckage. Toby
I read Angela Giuffrida’s fascinating report about the sightseers ditching Venice’s cultural landmarks in favour of hotspots from the Bezos wedding. Lucinda
Sport
Football | An extra-time goal gave Senegal, who walked off the pitch after the award of a controversial penalty, a 1-0 win against Morocco in the Africa Cup of Nations final.
Football | Newcastle had to put up with a disappointing point away at Wolves today with a 0-0 draw, meanwhile Aston Villa lost 1-0 at Villa Park to Everton, meaning they were unable to take advantage of an opportunity to move to second in the Premier league.
Tennis | Emma Raducanu rallied impressively from a slow start and early deficit to open her Australian Open with a solid victory, moving into the second round with a 6-4, 6-1 win over Mananchaya Sawangkaew.
The front pages
“EU weighs up €93bn retaliation for Trump’s Greenland ‘blackmail,” is the splash on the Guardian on Monday, a story most UK papers led with. “Blackmail,” says the Mirror, “Europe threatens to strike back over Greenland,” has the Telegraph. “Fears Trump’s tariffs threat will rip NATO apart,” is the headline at the Express, while the Times runs with: “PM warns of ‘downward spiral’ in US tariffs row.” “NATO now ‘heading for disaster’ in Trump row,” writes the Mail. “Trade war looms with America as UK and EU unite against Trump’s Greenland threat,” says the i.
“Farage wants to axe Holyrood,” says the Record, while the Metro has “Reclaiming the tea break,” and finally the Sun with: “Jesy love split after twins agony.”
Today in Focus
The transgender refugees fleeing the US
Jane-Michelle Arc is a 47-year-old transgender woman from San Francisco. She decided to apply for asylum after an incident where she was crossing the road outside her apartment and a woman in a truck threatened to kill her. The Guardian’s Helen Pidd meets the US citizens attempting to claim asylum in the Netherlands.
Cartoon of the day | Tom Gauld
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Eugene Teo began weightlifting at 13 seeking confidence but he later became obsessed with extreme bodybuilding. From ages 16 to 24, he trained for hours every day, followed restrictive diets, dehydrated himself for competitions and structured his life entirely around his body, damaging his health and relationships.
Despite looking muscular, he struggled with basic movement and chronic pain. Realising his obsession brought no joy, Teo shifted focus to mobility, endurance and overall health. Now a fitness coach he trains less, eats more flexibly and values function over appearance, feeling stronger, fitter and happier.
“Ten years ago, my body was capable of turning heads on the street,” he says. “That was fun – but it was the only thing it was capable of.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
