The online wager platform Polymarket has angered some gamblers by declaring it will not settle millions of dollars’ worth of bets on a US invasion of Venezuela, arguing that the capture of the then president, Nicolás Maduro, does not qualify.
Before Donald Trump’s forces seized Maduro on Saturday morning, some traders appeared to have anticipated the shock move by placing bets on “prediction markets”.
These are gambling platforms that allow individuals to wager on a range of markets that have been created by the host website. They are typically binary bets, punting on yes/no or higher/lower outcomes.
Last Friday an anonymous trader on Polymarket appeared to invest $30,000 (£22,343) on the market: Maduro out by 31 January 2026. After Maduro’s capture was announced on Saturday morning, the trader seemed to have made profits of $436,759.61.
After Polymarket clarified that the seizure of Maduro did not qualify for a winning bet, the odds of an invasion before the end of January crashed to below 5%.
Traders have placed more than $10.5m on bets of an invasion this year, with the majority on a 31 January deadline. The remainder have put money on contracts for the end of March and December. Some traders have bet tens of thousands of dollars on the question.
Polymarket was approached for comment. On its website, the platform states that the bet refers to “US military operations intended to establish control”. It added: “President Trump’s statement that they will ‘run’ Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”
Traders on the platform have expressed their anger at Polymarket’s position. A user named Skinner wrote: “Polymarket has descended into sheer arbitrariness. Words are redefined at will, detached from any recognised meaning, and facts are simply ignored. That a military incursion, the kidnapping of a head of state, and the takeover of a country are not classified as an invasion is plainly absurd.”
Polymarket, which only last year gained regulatory approval to operate in the US, is one of the many prediction platforms that have started to gain popularity in the US. The site does not have a licence to operate in Great Britain.
The president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, has taken advisory roles at Polymarket, as well as its peer Kalshi.
