The presidential palace in Kyiv is roiling. Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff has resigned as his office and home were raided by anti-corruption police and detectives on the trail of a €100m fraud.
The racket, which has already claimed the political heads of two ministers and sent a former business partner and close friend of Zelensky into exile and on the run outside the war-torn nation, is a strategic blow.
It proves, as if it were needed, how wide and deep and how cynical corruption goes. The missing funds were allegedly creamed off by Zelensky’s cronies from contacts to fix and defend Ukraine energy sector which has been under sustained Russian attacks for more than two years.
It comes as winter takes its icy grip on the country. It comes as people may be forced out of Ukraine not by war, but by cold, and it comes as Russia has made small gains on the eastern front.
Zelensky’s administration has been under attack by Russian trolls as illegitimate and corrupt. The Ukrainian president won landslide elections, and so did his party, so the former is an outright lie.
The latter issue cannot be argued. Money for war has been stolen by a group of powerful people. Their actions may have already resulted in Ukrainian deaths. They’d be lucky to get off a treason rap.
But they have been arrested. They are or will be charged, and tried, sentenced and subjected to the full force of public law in Ukraine and were caught by a body specifically set up after Russia’s 2014 invasion to go after crooks in the system.
In short, the imperfect system appears to have worked. Ukraine’s government is functioning as it should.
Which is more than one can say for Russia where this kind of operation would only be possible if Putin had ordered it. Zelensky has no legal say over the anti-corruption police.
This is a very bad moment for Zelensky and for Ukraine. The departure of Yermak, who has taken the lead in most of the recent negotiations to get a ceasefire or even a peace deal, is a disaster for him.
Given that so many of the characters in the sordid drama of Operation Midas, as the probe is codenamed, are very close to Zelensky will imperil his standing at home and his status abroad.
Yermak’s departure will warm the coldest hearts in the Kremlin. In Washington the strongly pro-Putin administration of Donald Trump will be certain to join Moscow’s efforts to undermine the legitimacy of Ukraine’s president.
Trump has, just like Putin, repeatedly demanded that Zelensky must seek re-election even though he is a wartime leader and no election can be legally held until peace has been achieved. Trump has demanded that he cede territory to Russia – he cannot do that legally either.
Putin meanwhile, says Zelensky’s government is “illegal”. It isn’t by any definition and this is a lie but it’s one that will suit the White House’s pro-Kremlin staff and their supreme leader.
But, as every Ukrainian will say, Zelensky is not Ukraine and Ukraine is not Zelensky. If he left office another leader would emerge – technically the speaker in the parliament is next in line.
Zelensky has been a great ambassador but there’s no blind personality cult in Ukraine around him. Ukrainians have always been nonplussed by the fascination the outside world holds for their wartime leader.
Ukraine, unlike Russia, is not a one-man state. But that fascination can, and will, be weaponised against Kyiv.
There’s now blood in Ukraine’s water and the Kremlin can smell it.
