Here we go again. Donald Trump has unleashed a spate of tariff storms over the past four months. Each has left businesses, in the US and across the world, clearing up the damage – and struggling to see what happens next.
The US president conjured up two fresh hurricanes on Friday, threatening the EU, his country’s largest collective trading partner, and Apple, one of his country’s largest companies, with sweeping duties.
In Brussels and Cupertino, officials and executives are braced. And Trump’s previous trade attacks, as fierce as they are fleeting, indicate how this is likely to unfold.
Be it Canada and Mexico, China or even the “liberation day” economic assault on dozens of countries, each branch of the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff strategy has so far followed a strikingly similar pattern.
Think of it as a four-act play.
It opens with a threat. This typically takes place at an unusual hour, on Truth Social, the president’s fringe social network, and prompts immediate warnings from countries and companies affected.
Then comes the imposition. Trump ignores the warnings, enforces the tariffs, claims they will raise billions, and sends out his closest allies and officials to defiantly explain why this is a strategic masterstroke, despite widespread concern.
Then the panic. Stock markets wobble. Businesses balk. Consumers grow anxious. The administration starts to waver, trailing exemptions and hinting at light at the end of the tunnel, even as Trump plays down the impact of his actions.
And then, the backtrack. This is also often revealed on Truth Social, before Trump again sends out his closest allies and officials to defiantly explain why this, too, is a strategic masterstroke.
This final stage is almost always presented as a bold negotiating breakthrough – like a “total reset” with China, or a supposed influx of countries seeking trade deals with the US – regardless of the facts.
Every performance is unique, of course. The cast rotates. You’re never quite sure how long each act will last. But so far, time and again, the script has followed the same arc.
The EU will draw up plans to retaliate. Trump will be urged to reconsider. At first, he will publicly dismiss such calls. And then …
How many times can you sit through the same show? On Wall Street, some investors appear to be wondering just how seriously they should be taking Trump on tariffs.
On Friday, the US president threatened to impose a 25% duty on Apple’s iPhone – which generates half its business, and dominates the US smartphone market – unless the tech giant shifts manufacturing to the US, which analysts have dismissed as a “fairy tale” that even if possible would increase the cost of an iPhone to $3,500.
Should Trump make good on this threat, penalize one of his country’s most successful companies, and hold the line until Apple starts making iPhones on home soil, the impact would be severe. But shares in the firm declined less than 3%.
The White House has layered an extraordinary level of uncertainty across the global economy. But already, a sense of inevitability is starting to set in, too.
