US President Donald Trump made headlines this week at the Nato summit in Ankara by declaring an end to all sanctions against Turkey, paving the way for the sale of the F-35 stealth fighter jet to the alarm of Greece and Israel.
'We are going to be taking the sanctions off; it's time to do that, OK. We don't want to sanction friends; it's very simple,' declared Trump to the international media, sitting next to his host, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Trump lifts Turkey sanctions
Trump was referencing the sanctions imposed on Turkey after Ankara acquired the Russian S-400 missile defence system. This move led to Turkey being barred from purchasing the American F-35 stealth fighter. Washington argued the deal jeopardised sensitive technology.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned any sale of F-35 jets to Turkey, warning it would adversely affect the balance of power in the region.
'We are in a crisis between Israel and Turkey,' warns Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies.
'I still would not characterise them as enemy states,' added Lindenstrauss, 'But the threat perception in both countries is growing, and there's a security dilemma evolving between the two countries. What each one thinks it's only doing for its defence is perceived by the other country as offensive.'
Turkey is pushing hard for the immediate delivery of six F-35s it has already paid for. Yet despite Trump's promises, the shadow of Turkey's S-400 missile system purchase still looms large: 'This is not a political decision; that is actually a legal question,' claims Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund.
Unluhisarcikli is referring to the US National Defense Authorization Act, which prohibits the sale of the F-35 until Turkey relinquishes 'possession' of the S-400. 'He (Trump) will, one way or another, need Congress's approval, and this is what Israel and Greece are trying to prevent,' said Unluhisarcikli.
However, Turkish and international media reported on Friday that Ankara will sell the S-400s to the United Arab Emirates. Moscow, which reportedly has a veto on any resale of the missile, has reacted cautiously. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov described the issue as 'extremely sensitive' and said they were in talks with Ankara.
F-35 sale faces resistance
If Ankara manages to sell the S-400, it still faces headwinds in securing the F-35 jet. Netanyahu is reportedly preparing to visit Washington this month, where he's expected to ramp up his campaign against any F-35 sale to Turkey.
The Israeli ambassador in Washington has also been in talks with Greek and Cypriot counterparts, forging a united front against Ankara. Greece and Cyprus share Israel's concerns, having their own disputes with Turkey.
Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a US think tank, predicts a tough fight for Ankara. 'This is about politics, and the politics of Turkey in the US Congress remains sour and not very good,' warns Stein. 'There are vested interest groups — the Israelis, the Greeks and others — who don't want to see an F-35 sale to Turkey and are pushing hard against it.'
Time is also an enemy of Ankara, warns Stein, with looming November Congressional midterm elections. 'Even if you get some movement on this (sale of F-35s), you will probably see a change of power in Congress, with the new government seated in January. So there is no pathway, in my opinion, for the F-35 to get through,' predicts Stein.
Before departing the Nato summit, Trump seemed to soften his stance on the F-35 sale, saying he was inclined to sanction the sale but hadn't totally made up his mind. However, Ankara might be content with Trump's symbolic backing.
'I don't believe that these are mere empty words; they are expressions of political will to find a solution to the S-400 problem and to bring Turkey to the very centre of the transatlantic alliance,' claims analyst Unluhisarcikli. 'In a matter of a couple of years, Turkey moved from its position as being basically contained by both the United States and the European Union, to becoming a key ally for NATO and for Europe's security,' he added.
Erdogan may well savour this symbolic victory, especially since even if the F-35 sale moves forward, experts predict it would take years for the jets to be ready for action due to the need for pilot training and support infrastructure. By that time, Turkey hopes to have its own stealth jet, the Kaan, soaring through the skies.
