KEY POINTS
- Federal budget shortfall narrows as borrowing falls month after month
- Factory output surges while business investment hits multi-year highs
- Real pay improves after years of erosion caused by inflation pressures
US President Donald Trump used a series of charts published on his Truth Social account on Tuesday evening to underline what he claims are early economic successes of his second term, citing improvements in the federal deficit, consumer spending, manufacturing output, business investment and real wages.
The data, drawn from the US Treasury, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau, compares economic performance across 2024 and the first half of 2025, illustrating key shifts since Trump returned to office.
Deficit Trends Show Slower Borrowing
One chart tracks cumulative monthly federal budget deficits from February to September and compares 2025 figures with the same period in 2024. The visual suggests smaller deficits across nearly every month of Trump's second term than during President Joe Biden's final year.
Although the graphic does not provide precise pound-for-pound breakdowns, the consistent gap between the two years indicates reduced government borrowing under the current administration.
White House officials have pointed to spending restraint and tighter fiscal controls as the main drivers behind the slower rate of debt accumulation, describing the shift as equating to hundreds of billions of dollars in savings, broadly equivalent to tens of billions of pounds based on current exchange rates.
Consumer Spending Exceeds Inflation
Another chart focuses on real discretionary consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, from early 2023 through July 2025. The graphic shows total spending rising from just under $11 trillion (approximately £8.6 trillion) at the beginning of 2023 to around $11.85 trillion (roughly £9.3 trillion) by mid-2025.
The steady upward trend appears to persist into Trump's second term, suggesting consumer purchasing power is continuing to improve despite the higher price environment experienced over the past two years. Administration officials say the figures reflect easing inflation pressures, strong employment levels and growing disposable incomes.
Economists caution that while inflation has moderated, its effects remain uneven across sectors and interest rate policy continues to weigh on household budgets, particularly around housing, borrowing and energy costs.
Manufacturing Production Rebounds
Manufacturing data shows one of the clearest turnarounds. Output growth remained negative through much of late 2023 and 2024, reaching a low of minus 1.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.
In 2025, however, manufacturing performance improved sharply, with 3.5 per cent growth recorded in the first quarter followed by a further 2.4 per cent expansion in the second.
The administration links the rebound to trade reforms, domestic supply-chain incentives and regulatory rollbacks designed to make US production more competitive and encourage firms to re-shore manufacturing operations.
Capital Spending Accelerates
Business investment trends also improved sharply. Real private non-residential capital spending rose at an annualised rate of 8.4 per cent in the first half of 2025, compared with growth of around 3.7 per cent during the 2023–2024 period.
The chart reflects increased spending on machinery, equipment, factory construction and technology upgrades. Analysts view this as a sign of renewed corporate confidence driven by changes to tax rules, regulatory frameworks and energy policy that have lowered operating costs for domestic firms.
Real Wages Begin To Recover
A further graphic highlights real wage trends. Workers are estimated to have experienced a cumulative decline of roughly $2,909 per employee (about £2,285) under the Biden administration as inflation eroded earnings growth.
Since Trump returned to office, real wages are shown rising at an annualised pace equivalent to $1,151 per worker (around £900). A pie-chart breakdown suggests that approximately 40 per cent of the purchasing power lost during the previous administration has already been recovered, with a further $1,758 (roughly £1,380) still to be regained.
Supporters argue this marks a tangible improvement in workers' financial position following several years of wage stagnation.
Political Messaging Intensifies
Trump framed the charts as evidence that his economic programme is delivering early results. Democratic critics counter that some of the positive trends reflect broader economic momentum building during the recovery from the pandemic and should not be attributed solely to recent policy changes.
Independent economists have warned that sustaining deficit reduction and wage growth will depend on global energy markets, interest rates and consumer confidence, all of which remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and monetary policy shifts.
Nevertheless, the early data on spending, manufacturing output and business investment has fostered optimism within corporate circles and among Republican lawmakers as fiscal debates intensify ahead of upcoming budget negotiations.
With additional plans on taxation, energy production and federal spending reform expected to move forward, the White House is likely to continue positioning the economy as a central pillar of its policy agenda throughout 2025.
