Volodymyr Zelensky wants Tomahawk missiles to smash Russia’s command and control of its war in his country.
Donald Trump has said he’s tempted to sell them to Kyiv, which prompted the Kremlin’s chief extremist and former president Dmitry Medvedev to boast “that’ll end badly” for all – especially the US.
Why all the fuss?
Tomahawk missiles can fly up to a thousand miles (1,600km), carry almost half a tonne of explosives, they can be guided onto targets in Russia, are accurate to within a few metres, and can loiter in the skies to dive on targets of opportunity. The US has this year launched Tomahawk against the Houthis in Yemen and against Iran to devastating but not strategic effect.
Ukraine has made its own long-range missile, the Flamingo or FP-5. It can hit a target at 1,600 miles (3,000km) and carries over a tonne of explosives.
If Zelensky persuades Trump to sell European donors Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine, it would be a huge military boost for Kyiv.
More importantly, it would signal that Trump has switched sides in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. He’s hinted that he might, but has so far favoured Russia over Ukraine, a former US ally.
He has become frustrated that Putin has brushed off his efforts to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine, where Nato estimates Russia has suffered 1.1 million casualties.
Last Sunday, Trump said on social media: “Yeah, I might tell him [Putin], if the war is not settled, we may very well do it. We may not, but we may do it... Do they want to have Tomahawks going in their direction? I don’t think so.”
Riding a wave of diplomatic machismo after he has been so widely praised for getting a ceasefire agreed in Gaza, Trump may be feeling more confident in his support for Zelensky – once a hate figure among Maga supporters heavily influenced by Russian propaganda. That is certainly what Zelensky hopes.
So too does Europe. The latest warnings over the dangers to the continent came from Germany’s spy chief Martin Jaeger, head of its foreign intelligence service.
“We are already under fire today,” he told Germany’s parliamentarians. “The means Moscow uses are well-known – attempted manipulation of elections and public opinion, propaganda, provocations, disinformation, espionage, sabotage, airspace violations by drones and fighter jets, contract killings, persecution of opposition figures living abroad.”
The Dutch are sending Ukraine €290m for drone development, Estonia has recently announced “tens of millions of Euros” for Kyiv in drones and Nato members have been rushing to increase the capabilities of its Baltic Sentry and Eastern Sentry air defences after repeated penetrations of Nato airspace by Russian drones and aircraft.
Trump won’t be moved by what the German spook-in-chief says. He doesn’t believe in Russian attempts to subvert democracy (since Moscow has been accused of interfering in his own election).
But he does, his Knesset speech this week has shown, love to back a winner – especially one who wins using American weapons which, he claimed, had contributed to Israel’s “victory” in Gaza.
Tomahawk missiles can attack Russian command centres. They can smash Moscow’s complex resupply routes, airfields and bridges. These are all targets that Ukraine has been hitting for more than a year. Kyiv is reeling from identical counterattacks by Russia – but Putin’s army could be forced into collapse if it starts to feel cut off from the motherland.
Trump has said that Russia may be a “paper tiger” and Zelensky would like him to add Tomahawks to his arsenal. So far, only the blowhard-in-chief of the Putin administration, Medvedev, has reacted to the Tomahawk threat. And pretty feebly at that.
“The delivery of these missiles could end badly for everyone. And first of all – for Trump himself,” said the former Russian president.
Zelensky has worked hard to win Trump’s ear after being told he didn’t have any cards to play in the war with Russia by a raging Trump in the Oval Office in February.
He has flattered and schmoozed the US commander-in-chief and been supported in his efforts by grovelling and hand-wringing among Europe’s leaders, who have been prepared to sacrifice personal dignity for strategic support.
It’s not there yet. But Ukraine and its allies know that Putin has overplayed his cards with Trump, who could himself throw down some aces, some Tomahawks and more.
He’d like to see Putin humbled and Zelensky’s best play is that Trump would enjoy forcing the Kremlin to fold, and ask for a seat at the peace table.
