Good morning. The Starmer has landed.
Yesterday, Keir Starmer became the first British prime minister to make the trip to China since Theresa May’s in 2018 (meaning a surprisingly large number of PMs didn’t) and has vowed to bring “stability and clarity” to the UK’s approach to Beijing.
Ahead of talks with Starmer, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has said the UK’s relationship with his country had gone through “twists and turns” over the years but that a more “consistent” approach was in both their interests.
In response, Starmer told Xi he wanted a “more sophisticated” relationship between the two countries.
Number 10 is all too aware that China cannot be ignored. It is the world’s second-largest economy, a central player in the technologies shaping the future, and a geopolitical power with a clear sense of where it wants to go (which is more than can be said about the man in the White House).
So what does Starmer hope to achieve from this visit, and what will Beijing be looking for in return? To understand the opportunities and risks of Britain’s China reset, I spoke to Laura Chappell, associate director for international policy at the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). That’s after the headlines.
Five big stories
Iran | Donald Trump has warned time is running out for Tehran and said a massive US armada was moving quickly towards the country.
Assisted Dying | Supporters of assisted dying will seek to force through the bill using an archaic parliamentary procedure if it continues to be blocked by the Lords.
UK politics | Centrist ideas are no longer wanted in the Conservative party, Kemi Badenoch has said.
Ofsted | A snap inspection of a Bristol secondary school criticised for postponing a visit by an MP who is a member of a group that advocates for Israel has found “no evidence of partisan political views”.
BBC | The BBC has named senior executive Rhodri Talfan Davies as its interim director general, as the corporation continues the search for a permanent replacement for Tim Davie.
In depth: ‘There are still things the two countries can achieve together’
Starmer joins a growing list of western leaders who have visited Beijing in recent weeks. Emmanuel Macron went in December, Mark Carney travelled there earlier this month, and Germany’s Friedrich Merz is due next.
Like Carney in Davos last week, Starmer has warned that the world is entering its most unstable period in a generation. But unlike Carney, he is keen to avoid framing the trip as any kind of rupture with Washington, and to sidestep the criticism Donald Trump recently aimed at Canada over its China outreach. Instead, the UK prime minister is attempting a careful balancing act: engaging with Beijing while keeping close to both Brussels and Washington.
For that reason, Laura Chappell says expectations from this meeting should be modest.
“It is a more careful trip,” she says. “It’s trying to signal that we are exiting what Keir Starmer himself called an ‘Ice Age’, and that there are still things the two countries can achieve together.”
By meeting Xi Jinping, he hopes to begin a cautious thaw. But, Chappell adds, “I don’t think what’s going to come out of this visit is going to be a transformational change, either in how we talk about the relationship or in major announcements that make a totemic difference to the UK’s growth trajectory.”
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The awkward relationship
When I ask Chappell to describe the UK’s China policy, she lands on one word: confused.
“My overall summary of how the UK treats China is that we try to tread a middle ground,” she says. “Labour’s got an articulation of this around ‘cooperate, compete, challenge’. The Conservatives have had similar phraseologies, and the US under Biden had a similar structure.”
The problem, she argues, is not the language but the lack of strategic action behind it.
“It didn’t feel like we knew where we were cooperating, where we were competing, where we were challenging,” she tells me. “We’ve held ourselves at a bit of a remove, without real clarity on what we’re trying to achieve and what the risks and costs are on the other side.”
China is Britain’s third largest trading partner. Total trade in goods and services between the UK and China was £98.4bn in 2024. “At this moment, both geopolitically and economically, China is essential [to Britain],” Chappell says.
But the relationship does come with notable security risks. China has been accused of cyber-attacks on UK parliamentarians, linked to a high-profile spying case, and has provoked a political row over plans for a new “mega-embassy” in London. Starmer is all too aware that he will have to balance any economic opportunities against these concerns.
On the geopolitical front, Chappell argues, China stands out in an increasingly unstable world. “We’re seeing a world in which all the old rules and norms are being thrown into the air. China is probably the one that’s best placed in terms of knowing what it’s trying to achieve and having the capability to try to drive there,” she says.
China has also had an “extraordinary” trajectory in its economy. “From having large numbers of the world’s poorest people in the 1980s to growth rates barely seen by any other country. Growth has slowed now, but they’re still growing at a significant rate, and their place in the global economy is very well chosen.”
In particular, China has positioned itself at the heart of the green transition. “They are absolutely dominant in many green technologies. No other player has anything like China’s market share. They’ve designed their economic structure to be pivotal in the economy of the future,” Chappell says.
The same is true for artificial intelligence. Last January, China blew the race for domination in artificial intelligence wide open after the launch of a Chinese chatbot that appeared to deliver the same performance with fewer resources, wiping $1tn from the leading US tech index. The relaxation of rules around the export of Nvidia’s AI microchips from America to the country was compared to “selling nuclear weapons to North Korea” by the CEO of leading AI firm Anthropic.
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Sending the right signals
China isn’t expecting any dramatic changes in the UK’s policy towards it, instead, Chappell says, it’s looking for the right political signals. “With some partners, for example Canada, recent visits resulted in language about a ‘new strategic partnership’. China would like countries to make those sorts of statements as often as possible, the sense that China is being chosen as a closer partner, even despite US pressure,” she says.
“I don’t think they expect [something similar from Starmer],” she says. “They’ll know that he is trying to ride a three-horse race.”
As well as symbolism, Chappell says China is looking for several “discrete deliverables” to come out of this trip, such as “opportunities for Chinese firms, visa-free travel for short-term business visitors.”
But the UK has to remain vigilant. “In a world of economic security and leverage, countries are increasingly using their position in supply chains to apply pressure. The US does this, and China does it too,” Chappell says. That matters for the UK.
“One of the things Britain needs to be aware of is whether agreements today make us subject to pressure later. China will be looking to see if there are opportunities for the UK to put itself in that position.”
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Growth, without rupture
Chappell sees three core objectives for the Labour government: the economy, diplomacy, and attention.
The prime minister’s meeting with Xi at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing was scheduled to last about 40 minutes, followed by a series of cultural and business receptions. On the economy, Starmer wants a positive story on growth and living standards. “Economic deliverables will be big. Can they announce investment deals? Can British firms trade more easily in China?” she asks.
Starmer will also want to “slightly deepen the relationship with China without alienating the EU or the US. That balancing act is central.” Will this trip mark a decisive moment for that?
Again, Chappell is skeptical. “I don’t think he’s on the cusp of making major choices in favour of one side or another. I don’t think there are significant deals about to be signed. This is about warming relationships, not a definitive break.”
And finally, the quieter, but less talked about benefit of simply getting Starmer to properly focus on China. “Prime ministers are very busy. How often does Keir Starmer get to think with his whole brain about China? How often does he sit down with diplomats and get a full read-out of the risks and opportunities?”
That immersion, she argues, matters. “The benefit of this visit is that he’s forced to engage deeply with what Britain actually knows about China.”
What should underpin all these goals, Chappell says, is clarity. “We shouldn’t be trying to tread a middle line. We should be trying to seize opportunities and manage risks. That requires a really good mapping of what those opportunities are and where the security risks actually lie.”
The problem, or reassurance, depending on your view, is that Starmer is widely viewed as a technocrat. “They’ll try to deliver big economic numbers, but in tone and ambition it won’t look radical. Over time, that could change. But they won’t frame it as a dramatic recalibration,” she says.
For now, it’s time to turn on the heat.
What else we’ve been reading
The brutal story of how Eve Henderson’s husband being murdered in a random attack in Paris led to her setting up a charity to support people whose loved ones are killed abroad. Martin
Jonathan Liew learned that an article he wrote about the England cricket team had been copied and repackaged without permission by another website. It is just one example of living in a world defined by petty theft. Aamna
Betsy Johnson tells i_D magazine “creativity isn’t a god-given gift – it’s a discipline” as she releases a book – Revision – illustrating six years worth of her creative process. Martin
The era of gentle parenting may finally be coming to an end. Thank god, I initially thought, until I read in shock (I may have also laughed) at what will follow: Fuck around and find it parenting. Aamna
Pamela Hutchinson, one of the UK’s foremost experts on the silent cinema age, ponders the re-purposing of Alfred Hitchcock’s serial killer drama The Lodger for streaming in a new vertical phone-friendly cut. Martin
Sport
Football | Real Madrid missed out on automatic qualification for the Champions League knockout round, after losing 4-2 to Benfica. Holders Paris St Germain also slipped out of the top eight as they could only draw 1-1 at home to Newcastle United – a result that left both sides facing a playoff. Manchester City secured a place in the last 16 after a 2-0 victory over Galatasaray.
Super Bowl | US Customs and Immigration Enforcement (ICE) agents are expected to conduct immigration enforcement operations during next month’s Super Bowl game in Santa Clara, California.
Rugby union | Ireland will kick off the Six Nations next week without Bundee Aki, after a “misconduct complaint” relating to an alleged post-match incident with officials after Connacht’s URC game against Leinster on Saturday.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Time is running out, Trump says as US armada heads towards Iran.” The Mirror has “Trump’s war threat to Iran”, while the i says “Nuclear ultimatum: abandon weapons programme or ‘massive armada’ will bomb Iran, US threatens Ayatollah”. The Mail simply goes with “Countdown to conflagration”.
The Sun speaks to a police officer involved with the arrest of Lucy Letby, under the headline “The greatest miscarriage of justice this century”. The Times reports “PM shelves fresh plan to overhaul benefits”. The Financial Times says “Miners boost value by $476bn after global tensions drive up metal prices”. Finally the Telegraph leads with “Starmer: Use ECHR to investigate British troops”.
Today in Focus
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Miqdaad Versi, Shaista Aziz, Aamna Mohdin and Nosheen Iqbal on the rise of the far right and growing Islamophobia in the UK
Cartoon of the day | Pete Songi
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Mary Ann Patten was clearly something of a force to be reckoned with. Aged just 19, and three months pregnant, she took control of a mutinous clipper crew after the death of her husband – the captain – and successfully navigated Neptune’s Car around Cape Horn through a tumultuous storm to San Francisco.
Her story has been rediscovered and retold by author and historian Tilar J Mazzeo for her new book.
“There were very few sea captains in the 1850s and 1860s who could have achieved what she achieved, as a maritime feat. It’s amazing she and her crew survived. The story is really about what a woman in the 1850s – given an education and an opportunity – was capable of doing, and how we remember that.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
