Good morning. Earlier this month, Pippa Crerar and Jessica Elgot reported that the government was rethinking arguably the most unpopular policy introduced by Labour since the election: the cut to winter fuel payments for pensioners. Nonsense, No 10 sources insisted in the following days: “There isn’t a review and I’d be amazed if we changed anything.”
No 10 sources are now, presumably, amazed, because yesterday Keir Starmer announced exactly what had been so strenuously denied: a plan to loosen eligibility requirements so that more pensioners qualify, to be introduced at the autumn budget.
This isn’t a complete U-turn: fewer pensioners will receive the payment than before Rachel Reeves’s decision of 2024. But it is a very significant step. Many Labour MPs – to say nothing of the pensioners who lost out – will be wondering why the government went ahead with such a painful policy in the first place for such minimal economic gain. But even if the criticisms have been painful, Starmer insists that the change is possible because of a brightening economic outlook.
Against that optimistic gloss is the argument that Labour is acting because it knows the policy was a colossal misjudgement. Today’s newsletter explains how the change came about, and what it means in practice. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
US news | A suspect is in custody after shooting dead two Israeli embassy staff, said to be a couple about to become engaged, outside a Jewish museum in Washington. The suspect yelled “Free, free Palestine” after he was arrested, police said.
Prisons and probation | Justice secretary Shabana Mahmood is considering mandatory chemical castration for the most serious sex offenders, according to government sources. The option is part of a package of “radical” measures to ease prison overcrowding included in an independent sentencing review.
Trump administration | Donald Trump ambushed the South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, by playing him a video that he falsely claimed proved genocide was being committed against white people under “the opposite of apartheid”. The stunt set up the most tense Oval Office encounter since Trump’s encounter with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February.
West Bank | Israeli troops fired “warning shots” towards a group of 25 diplomats visiting Jenin in the Israel-occupied West Bank on Wednesday. The delegation included representatives from Italy, Canada, Egypt, Jordan, the UK, China and Russia.
UK politics | Reform UK has pledged to remove all low-traffic neighbourhoods from the council areas it controls – but all 10 local authorities say they do not actually have any in place.
In depth: The totem that turned into an albatross – and then a reverse ferret
The winter fuel payment is worth about £200 a year to pensioners under 80, and £300 for those who are older. When the government changed the rules last year, restricting eligibility to individuals with income below £11,800 or couples with income below £18,023, about 10 million people lost the payment. That included a million families in the poorest fifth of UK households, and 70% of pensioners with disabilities. The saving was estimated at £1.4bn a year.
When Labour lost two-thirds of the council seats it was defending in the local elections this month, many in the party said the decision was one of the issues that came up most persistently with voters. Discussions were already under way about a change, Pippa Crerar and Jessica Elgot reported – but the electoral damage brought the issue into sharp focus. Now, after weeks of denial and evasion, Keir Starmer has finally acted.
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How the denials disappeared
On the day the initial story was published, Labour’s denials were forthright. A government spokesperson told reporters that there “will not be a change to the government’s policy”; the health and social care secretary, Wes Streeting, insisted the threshold was not being reviewed, and that the measure was necessary “in order to deliver the change that people voted for”. Two Downing Street sources told HuffPost UK no review was under way.
But by last weekend a different picture was emerging. The Sunday Times reported that the government was running focus groups on how voters would respond to possible changes, and quoted a No 10 source saying the issue was “more under discussion”. And in the following days, the language from ministers changed.
Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the Treasury, said that the policy “stands” but refused to deny that a change was possible. Then Rachel Reeves said that she understood “the concerns that some people have about the level at which the winter fuel payment is removed” and added: “We’re always listening to these things.”
On Tuesday, the BBC reported that a change was under consideration. Finally, Keir Starmer said at PMQs yesterday: “I recognise that people are still feeling the pressure of the cost of living crisis, including pensioners … and that is why we want to ensure that … more pensioners are eligible for winter fuel payment.”
In this piece, Kiran Stacey sets out more detail on how the shift happened. “Some officials now say they felt they had to deny the reports until a decision was made in order to protect the chancellor’s authority,” he writes. “Others suggest that while there had been political discussions, the policy machine had not yet got up and running, and the denials softened once it was.”
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The economic backdrop
Starmer has said the decision was possible because the economy is improving. He has some evidence to support his case: figures released earlier this week showed the UK economy growing by 0.7% in the first quarter of this year – slightly more than forecast and the highest rate in the G7. Recent deals with India, the US and the EU have further bolstered the government’s confidence, and tax revenues have also grown this year.
But while the growth figures are relatively good news, they are not likely to be maintained: one of the key reasons for that is the ensuing arrival of Donald Trump’s tariffs, which were not a factor when the original cut was made. The deal with the EU is important, but it is only estimated to be worth about a 0.3% uptick in GDP by 2040.
And in any case, the amount that will be spent on the changes to the winter fuel payment threshold is too small for a change in the economic outlook to be a serious factor. All of that suggests that this was, primarily, a political decision.
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What the change means in practice
While Starmer’s announcement was significant, it was also short on detail. The government has not yet said how many of those who lost the payment will have it restored, or how eligibility will be measured.
Officials fear that simply increasing the pension credit threshold to which it is currently linked will increase take-up of that benefit, thereby wiping out any potential savings, Pippa Crerar reported. The Resolution Foundation said that making those with incomes 20% above the pension credit threshold eligible would cost about £100m and make the payment available to 400,000 additional families.
Nor is the announcement likely to have a rapid impact. It is a preview of a future decision, not a policy change today – and if done at the autumn budget it is not expected to come into force until winter 2026.
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The political fallout
Kemi Badenoch and the Conservative-supporting media, unsurprisingly, sought to present the decision as a climbdown that indicates the government’s incompetence. Yesterday, Badenoch said the change was a “desperate” move and said that inflation has doubled since Starmer took office. (She also said that while the Tories would restore the payment to everyone earning up to £15,000, she wouldn’t raise taxes to pay for it, which is a useful reminder of the luxuries of opposition.)
Labour MPs, on the other hand, welcomed the measure – not really as a political victory, but as a damage limitation exercise that will blunt attacks from other parties, and an answer for constituents who feel that the government has betrayed them. Expect to hear a lot of the framing that it is Labour’s sound economic management that has made the change possible, however dubious that claim may be.
The decision is likely to only be a preview of some of the rough waters ahead for Starmer over government cuts. Next month, MPs will vote on separate cuts to disability benefits – as part of a welfare reform bill that an impact assessment estimated would result in an extra 250,000 people – 50,000 of them children – in relative poverty by the end of the decade.
On Tuesday, the work and pensions secretary, Liz Kendall, insisted the changes were necessary to save the welfare state from collapse. But more than 100 Labour MPs have said they are not prepared to support the bill. This measure is in part intended to appease those would-be rebels – and ministers are expected to announce a child poverty package of up to £750m to win them over, too. In the meantime, even if Starmer’s announcement furnishes ministers with a more plausible answer to critical questions over the cost of living, there is little prospect of making the problem go away.
What else we’ve been reading
Pope Leo XIV has been branded a “Marxist” by Maga Catholics for criticising Trump. But Julian Coman argues this new papacy is more than symbolism: it is a genuine challenge to rightwing nationalism. Aamna
For the long read, Kieran Morris has a brilliant profile of Jamie Carragher, and uses his story to explain the astonishing explosion in the football punditry industry. “It almost feels like a game in itself these days,” Carragher says. “Are we storytellers? Are we characters? Are we both?” Archie
Once quirky and popular, cat cafes are facing growing criticism from animal welfare groups that say the model isn’t fair on the cats. Elle Hunt explores the ethical backlash and whether these venues should now be retired. Aamna
Donald Trump wants to spend $175bn on a “golden dome” missile defence shield, which he says will be operational by the time he leaves office. 404 Media has an excellent piece on why the plan’s promise of almost 100% success in shooting down missiles is almost certainly a fantasy. Archie
When comedian Ian Moore moved to rural France, he struggled to fit in. Then he embraced his mod stage persona in his everyday life. That unexpected decision led his neighbours to finally accept him as charmingly, unmistakably British. Aamna
Sport
Football | A scrappy first-half goal by Brennan Johnson sealed the Europa League for Tottenham in a 1-0 final win against Manchester United in Bilbao. After a match billed as the worst-form final in European history, Tottenham enter next season’s Champions League despite being one place above relegation in the domestic competition.
Cricket | Sophia Dunkley struck an unbeaten 81 as England eased to an eight-wicket victory over West Indies in the opening Twenty20 international.
Drugs in sport | A controversial new Olympics-style sporting event where athletes will be permitted – and even encouraged – to use performance-enhancing drugs is set to debut in Las Vegas next May, organisers announced on Wednesday. Critics are already raising alarms about safety, fairness and the fundamental integrity of sport.
The front pages
“Starmer announces U-turn over winter fuel after fierce backlash” is top of page one in the Guardian while the Mirror has “Keir: we get it” (that’s Starmer speaking, not being spoken to). The Express says “Fight for fuel pay for all not over” while the Times goes with “Pensioners to wait year after winter fuel U-turn”. “Reeves reeling from triple blow” – the Mail turns its attack on the chancellor. The Telegraph runs with “Rayner – Let’s cut migrant benefits”. The i paper has “Reeves open to new wealth taxes if she faces Budget black hole”. “Starmer makes U-turn on winter fuel payments as pressure from MPs rises” – that’s the Financial Times, while the Metro says “Starmer in fuel U-turn”.
Today in Focus
Vika: The journalist who exposed Russian ‘black sites’, then ended up in one
Viktoriia Roshchyna was investigating Russia’s torture sites, then found herself inside one. Manisha Ganguly and Juliette Garside report
Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Dilys and Jim Quinlan have spent most of their annual leave volunteering at Vindolanda, the Roman fort near Hexham, Northumberland. For them, it’s a joyful, calming ritual they love doing together. On their latest trip, they helped uncover a remarkable find: a rare Roman depiction of the winged goddess of victory, dating to around AD213, just after the Severan wars. The 47cm-tall carving is thought to have symbolised the end of the wars.
The Quinlans aren’t alone in their passion. When applications open to join the dig, all 500 volunteer spots are snapped up within minutes. It’s ancient history’s answer to Glastonbury.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
• Yesterday’s newsletter said that Dylan Tippetts was Labour’s only transgender councillor and resigned from Plymouth council. In fact, he resigned from the Labour party rather than the council, and was not the party’s only trans councillor.
