During the US presidential election campaign of 2016, Viktor Orbán was the only European Union leader to back Donald Trump. Which was hardly surprising. Whether in relation to the the normalisation of great replacement theory, or the bullying and harassment of the media, Mr Orbán more or less wrote the playbook for the Maga movement. The former White House strategist Steve Bannon has eulogised Hungary’s prime minister as the “Trump before Trump”.
Last week, ahead of crucial Hungarian elections in less than six months’ time, the US president returned some political favours. As Mr Orbán seeks a fifth consecutive term presiding over a nation which he boasts of having turned into an illiberal democracy, his Fidesz party trails in the polls. As well as a few signed Maga baseball caps, an Orbán visit to Washington yielded considerably more valuable pre-election gifts.
Having previously lectured European nations on the need to eliminate all energy imports from Russia, and threatened to sanction countries continuing to buy Russian oil, Mr Trump agreed there should be a special exemption for Hungary – the largest EU consumer of all. According to Mr Orbán, the Trump administration also agreed to offer a “financial shield” to Budapest should it run into any future difficulties, as Brussels continues to withhold billions of pounds in EU funding to Hungary on the grounds of rule-of-law breaches.
The details of this arrangement are somewhat murky. But Mr Trump recently demonstrated his willingness to help out ideological allies when the US extended a $20bn emergency credit line to Argentina’s far-right president, Javier Milei. Although Mr Orbán failed to nail down a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, it was still a profitable day’s work in the Oval Office.
In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention will have further underlined the geopolitical stakes of the coming election, ahead of which the centrist challenger, Péter Magyar, enjoys a comfortable lead in the polls. European leaders have learned not to expect principled consistency from the Trump White House, and have grown used to the US president’s efforts to belittle the EU. But Mr Orbán’s exemption – which came at the price of an agreement to buy US gas and nuclear energy – flagrantly undermines EU aspirations to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.
Since 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia, have contributed well over £10bn to the Kremlin’s war effort. Meanwhile, Budapest has repeatedly used the threat of its veto to stymie progress in Ukraine’s EU accession talks. As Europe strives to forge a unified and effective strategy for supporting Kyiv, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the diplomatic table remains a significant obstacle.
Mr Magyar has steered clear of pledging a major policy shift on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on domestic issues, while emphasising the need for Hungary to finally behave as a constructive EU member. After enduring so many years of trolling, Brussels can only wait and hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to basic EU values, such as the upholding of minority rights and the independence of civil society institutions, has long been a humiliating embarrassment for the bloc. His continued obstructionism regarding Ukraine risks undermining its future security.
