Tesla surged at the stock market open Monday after regulatory filings showed CEO Elon Musk made his first purchase on the open market since February 2020, scooping up Tesla stock at various prices in 26 separate TSLA share purchases Friday. The stock raced through a buy zone on Friday, and continued to run higher Monday.
A U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing dated Monday showed Musk purchased more than 2.5 million shares of Tesla for prices ranging from 371.90 to 396.36. The total is estimated to be worth more than $1 billion.
TSLA jumped more than 6% to 419.70 at Monday's stock market open, making a move above 420 and pointing shares toward their highest level since late January 2025. Last week, Tesla stock added 12.9% to 395.94, moving above a traditional consolidation buy point of 367.71, according to MarketSurge charts.
At this point, investors looking to start a position should see if Tesla pulls back or perhaps forges a handle to a consolidation going back to end of last year.
William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer on Monday wrote that Musk's TSLA purchases "partly explains the move in shares on Friday" and is pushing shares higher Monday.
"We see this as a clear signal of confidence from Musk. The market has looked through our concerns over how margins will react to the elimination of environmental tax credit revenue in the second half of this year. With Musk's purchase, combined with the upward momentum for delivery expectations and robotaxi rollout, we are becoming more bullish but retaining our Market Perform rating," Dorsheimer wrote.
"This purchase is Musk's first buy since 2020. To us, this sends a strong signal of confidence in the most important part of Tesla's future business, robotaxi. Tesla recently announced that robotaxi is now open to the public and the app has hit top of the charts for downloads. Musk stated that V14 will be two to three times better than a human driver, and we believe it will be rolled out in the next month to the robotaxi fleet," the analyst added.
Tesla's Berlin-area plant will produce more vehicles than expected in the second half, the factory's manager told Germany's DPA news agency on Sunday. Tesla's European sales are falling significantly in Europe for a second straight year amid rising competition and Elon Musk-led brand destruction. But the Tesla executive cited growth in some markets outside of Europe that the Berlin market serves.
Tesla reports third-quarter global vehicle deliveries in early October and Q3 earnings on Oct. 21. Analyst consensus has global Tesla Q3 vehicle deliveries coming in around 432,000, according to FactSet. That would be about 13% above the second-quarter total but still down more than 6% vs. Q3 2024. Few analysts have updated Q3 delivery targets since late July, however.
Tesla deliveries should be strong in Q3 as the U.S. tax credit expires on Sept. 30. After that, deliveries are likely to fall significantly in the U.S.
Tesla stock has a 75 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. The stock also has an 87 Relative Strength Rating and a 53 EPS Rating.
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