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KIT NORTON

Tesla's Only EV Bright Spot Is Dimming But It May Not Matter For Tesla Stock

Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China made up ground sequentially last week, but are still down compared to last year as demand for Tesla vehicles in the massive EV market appears to be stalling.

Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled around 13,000 for the week of May 26-June 1, up about 18% from 11,000 the previous week, according to data compiled by independent China auto industry trackers on Wednesday. That's down from 15,000 a year earlier

During the first quarter, Tesla vehicles sales in China were one of the few bright spots for the EV business. However, nine weeks into Q2, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are roughly 3% below the seasonally weak Q1 and down more than 21% vs. a year earlier. Since the beginning of 2025, Tesla vehicle registrations in China are down nearly 8%.

Meanwhile, Tesla China vehicle sales in May, including local sales and exports to other countries, totaled 61,662 in May, according to official CPCA data released on Wednesday. That represents a 5.5% increase compared to April, but is down 15% from May 2024. It was the eighth straight year-over-year decline.

Tesla sales have struggled throughout Europe and the U.S. in 2025, as Chief Executive Elon Musk's involvement with President Donald Trump has brought "brand damage" to the company. Meanwhile, Tesla also rolled out a refreshed Model Y in Q1.

Tesla investors await the limited robotaxi service launch in Austin, Texas, reportedly slated for June 12. Musk has also repeatedly stated that Tesla stock value long-term is not tied to the EV business.

Tesla stock fell around 3.6% to 332.05 during Wednesday's stock market action, retreating to its 21-day exponential moving average. The stock flirted with aggressive entries on Tuesday but backed off as Musk ripped the Trump White House budget bill as a "disgusting abomination."

Mr. Musk Leaves Washington: Sales Impact?

Along with various signals within the White House, Musk's posts to X Tuesday suggest a widening rift between the billionaire Musk and Trump. That could have a negative impact on Tesla and SpaceX.

Elon Musk Lashes Out At 'Pork-Filled' Trump Tax Bill

"I'm sorry, but I just can't stand it anymore," Musk wrote on X Tuesday. "This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it."

Before Musk's public criticism of Trump's bill, the Tesla head said in a May 20 interview at Bloomberg's Qatar Economic Forum in Abu Dhabi that "we've lost some sales perhaps on the left but we've gained them on the right." Musk was referring to consumers on the political right and left.

"The sales numbers at this point are strong, and we see no problem with demand," Musk said, adding that TSLA stock is evidence that Tesla EV sales are doing well.

"Our stock wouldn't be trading near all-time highs if things weren't in good shape; they're fine, don't worry about it," Musk said.

Social media influencer Troy Teslike posted to X on May 20 that he expected Q2 vehicle deliveries of 350,000-395,000, or marking about a 11%-20% decrease vs. a year ago. For the full year, Teslike expects Tesla vehicle deliveries to decline more than 16%.

There is some social media chatter that Tesla could struggle to top Q1's global total of 336,681.

The current analyst consensus has Tesla Q2 deliveries totaling 404,850, according to FactSet. That would be about 20% higher than Q1 but down 9% compared to a year ago.

Tesla Stock Performance

The stock edged up 0.5% on Tuesday to 344.27, but well off session highs. Intraday, TSLA stock topped aggressive entries at 351.62 and 354.99, according to analysis of MarketSurge charts.

Tesla is on the IBD Leaderboard stock list.

On Friday, TSLA shed 3.3% but still posted a 2.1% weekly advance, giving it a 22.8% gain in May.

The stock is still down about 18% this year, despite surging on robotaxi bets following the April 22 Q1 conference call. Tesla stock is around 32% below the 488.54 peak from Dec. 18.

Tesla stock has a 21-day average true range of 4.47%. The ATR metric, available on IBD's MarketSurge charting tool, gauges the characteristic breadth of a stock's behavior. Stocks that tend to make large jumps or dives in daily stock market action, the kind that can trigger sell rules and shake investors out of a stock, have a high ATR. Stocks that tend to make more incremental moves have lower ATRs.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now in a power trend. Investors can buy stocks with ATRs of up to 8%, though they should be wary of being too concentrated in high-octane names.

Tesla stock has a 77 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. The stock also has a 94 Relative Strength Rating and a 58 EPS Rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.

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