The US Supreme Court on Monday formally upheld Texas's redrawn congressional map, handing Republicans a path to as many as five additional House seats for the 2026 midterms.
The 6-3 ruling rests on a wager that may already be unravelling, that Latino voters who swung right in 2024 will stay there in November.
A 6-3 Ruling Along Ideological Lines
The justices reversed a federal panel that had blocked the map last November after citing 'substantial evidence' of racial gerrymandering. Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented without comment. Texas approved the new boundaries last August at President Donald Trump's request, after he warned the GOP's narrow House majority could collapse in the midterms. The map is now locked in through at least the 2030 redistricting cycle.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott welcomed the decision. A spokesperson said the governor was 'pleased that the Supreme Court reversed a poorly reasoned decision.' State Representative Gene Wu, who led Texas Democrats in breaking quorum to delay the vote last year, said justices had 'protected Greg Abbott's racist map.'
A Wager Built on a Fraying Coalition
The five targeted districts were drawn around Latino voters' sharp swing toward Trump in 2024. That bet looks shakier today. A March 2026 poll by Equis Research found Latinos preferred Democrats over Republicans by 19 points on the generic congressional ballot, 54% to 35%. About 28% of Latinos who backed Trump now say they are disappointed in him or regret their vote, up from 22% the previous month.
Trump's net approval among Latino voters sits at -25, according to the same survey. Cost of living tops their concerns, with two-thirds saying Republicans aren't focused enough on the economy. Immigration enforcement is a separate flashpoint, with 43% fearing they or a family member could be detained even with legal status.
The pattern is showing up in elections. In February, Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped Texas Senate District 9, a seat Trump carried by 17 points in 2024, with an estimated 79% of the Latino vote. Voto Latino said voters were 'fed up' with rising prices and immigration chaos.
California and Virginia Move to Cancel the Gain
Two blue states have already drawn counter-maps. California voters approved a Democratic-leaning plan last November designed to flip up to five seats. On 21 April, Virginians narrowly passed a constitutional amendment letting state lawmakers bypass the bipartisan redistricting commission. Governor Abigail Spanberger signed new boundaries projecting a 10-1 Democratic split in the state's US House delegation, up from the current 6-5.
Combined with court-ordered changes in Utah, Democrats have advantages in roughly 10 seats. Republicans have moved in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, totalling around nine. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on Monday released a draft map that could add four more Republican-leaning districts, with a special session underway this week.
The Voters Caught in the Middle
Millions of Americans now live inside boundaries they never voted for. Lawmakers in both parties have redrawn districts mid-decade for partisan gain, and residents in Texas' five reshaped seats, along with those in Virginia, California, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, woke up to new representation chosen for them by state legislatures rather than at the ballot box. Civil rights groups argue that the Texas map specifically dilutes the political power of Latino and Black voters concentrated in the redrawn districts.
Whether the Texas map delivers what Republicans paid for depends on how Latino voters break in November. If the 2024 rightward swing holds, the ruling locks in five new GOP seats through at least 2030. If it doesn't, the Lone Star State's gamble could deliver less than the headline figure suggests, and the national redistricting fight will look more like a draw than a sweep.
