Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock defied fears of heavy selling pressure on Thursday, rebounding 6.14% to close at $114.92 even as its first post-IPO lockup expiration significantly expanded the stock’s free float.
However, while SpaceX stock survived the initial release of 911.5 million shares, a series of staggered lockup tranches extending through December leaves investors questioning whether the SPCX stock price is truly out of the woods.
Defying Gravity on Unlock Day
Market expectations pointed toward a steep decline on Aug. 6, when approximately 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors became eligible for sale.
The block, valued at roughly $104.8 billion based on Thursday’s close, expanded the potentially tradable pool of shares from 4.9% to 11.8%. Instead of collapsing, the SpaceX stock price recovered strongly from Wednesday’s 13.6% drop.
“With the unlock of so many shares, 911 million shares… we expected such incredible volatility,” Jon Taves, managing director at the Post Oak Group told Schwab Network. “But it’s been kind of holding steady… This is a long term investment, a long term hold.”
Staggered Unlocks Create Continuous Overhang
Despite the resilient trading session, Wall Street experts emphasize that SpaceX stock still faces a lingering supply overhang. The Aug. 6 unlock represented only the first tranche, releasing up to 20% of eligible insider shares.
Additional 7% tranches will unlock every 15 to 20 days through October, followed by another 28% release after third quarter earnings and a full 180-day lockup expiration on Dec. 8, 2026.
$SPCX Sell-side repricing after Q2:
— Patrick Moorhead (@PatrickMoorhead) August 6, 2026
TARGET RAISED
• Goldman Sachs: Buy maintained; $205 → $220, up 7.3%.
• JPMorgan: Overweight maintained; $225 → $240, up 6.7%.
• Bernstein: Outperform maintained; $239 → $248, up 3.8%.
TARGET CUT
• Piper Sandler: Neutral maintained;… https://t.co/jzguWGbnHc
Speaking to Schwab Network, CFRA Research Equity Analyst Keith Schneider warned that Thursday’s unlock was “just the tip of the iceberg in terms of what is going to become available to be sold,” adding that insider sales “could be a big pressure on the stock going forward.”
Key Technical Levels Ahead
Although long-term bulls point to accelerating Starlink profitability and AI revenue growth, near-term sentiment remains weighed down by a massive $18.4 billion quarterly capital outlay.
In his piece assessing the aftermath of the stock unlock for ABBO News, Peter Williams noted that a recovery above the $125 mark would be the initial signal of weakening selling pressure, but the stock would ultimately need to cross its $135 IPO price to break the broader downtrend.
SpaceX Stock Price Action
SPCX shares closed Thursday at $114.92 per share and rose 2.153% in premarket trading on Friday. It was 23.39% lower since its listing and down 28.36% over the last month. However, it was 2.42% higher in the last five trading sessions
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that SPCX maintains a weak price trend in the short, long, and medium terms.
Read Also: SpaceX Q2 Highlights: Double Beat, Revenue Up 92%, Backlog Hits $47.5 Billion
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: JRdes on Shutterstock.com
