Russia could launch a limited military campaign against a Nato member within a year of the war in Ukraine ending, according to a warning issued by the Dutch defence ministry. The assessment, published in the Netherlands' annual defence policy strategy on Monday, said Russian military preparations suggest Moscow is gearing up for a prolonged confrontation with Europe.
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"The Dutch intelligence services estimate that Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation with Europe," the ministry said. It added: "In the worst-case scenario, a limited war against Nato members could be possible within one year of the Russian war in Ukraine ending."
Also read: Why Ukraine's biggest attacks could make Putin even more dangerous
The warning comes as European governments continue to reassess their security posture amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has entered its fifth year. It also precedes a Nato summit in Ankara on July 7-8, where the alliance is expected to focus heavily on the threat posed by Moscow and plans to strengthen Europe's collective defence.
The Dutch assessment echoes recent warnings from Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte, who has said Russia "could be ready to use military force against Nato within five years". The report argues that Europe now finds itself in a "grey area" between war and peace, requiring urgent investment in military readiness and emerging technologies.
Russia-Ukraine war continues to fuel security fears
The Dutch warning came as Russia intensified its attacks across Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian missiles and drones killed at least 11 civilians and injured dozens more in what he described as "horrific attacks", renewing his call for Europe to accelerate the development of advanced air defence systems.
Meanwhile, analysts say Russia continues to adapt despite mounting battlefield losses. Military experts believe Moscow is expanding defence production, increasing drone capabilities and rebuilding its armed forces even as Ukraine steps up long-range strikes on military-industrial targets inside Russia.
Several Western analysts have warned that, while Ukraine's deep-strike campaign is placing greater pressure on the Kremlin, it may not significantly reduce Russia's long-term military threat. Instead, they argue Moscow could rebuild enough capability within the next five to seven years to once again pose a major challenge to Nato, while retaining the ability to exert limited military pressure on alliance members much sooner.
