US President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement that he will approve a license for Ukraine to produce its own Patriot missile interceptors signals a potential breakthrough for Kyiv, though experts caution that it will not translate into an immediate fix.
US President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement on July 9 that he will approve a license for Ukraine to produce its own Patriot missile interceptors signals a potential breakthrough for Kyiv – though one that could take years to produce concrete results.
“We're going to give a license to you to make Patriots [. . .] This way, you can't complain that we're not giving them enough,” Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara in Turkey.
Read moreTrump says he will allow Ukraine to make its own Patriot missiles
Where are the Patriots?
The Ukrainian president has warned for weeks that the country is running out of Patriot interceptors, hampering its ability to defend Ukrainian cities from a near-constant barrage of Russian ballistic missiles.
Ukraine “intercepts drones as well as cruise missiles because they don’t require any sophisticated interceptors. Yet it’s completely different with ballistic missiles. Ukraine is completely out of Patriot missiles, so they desperately need them”, said Huseyn Aliyev, an expert on the war in Ukraine at the University of Glasgow.
Compounding the problem for Kyiv, Russia has stepped up its use of ballistic missiles precisely because it knows that Ukraine doesn't have enough interceptors, added Aliyev.
The price Ukraine is paying for this shortage was grimly apparent in the early hours of July 6 after Kyiv's defences failed to intercept any of the 23 ballistic missiles launched overnight by Russia. At least 22 people were killed in ferocious strikes on the Ukrainian capital.
Ukraine has struggled to acquire new Patriot interceptors because other countries, mostly in Europe, are urgently trying to replenish their own stockpiles of Patriot systems.
There is a long line of countries waiting for the coveted interceptors, said Justin Bronk, an airpower specialist at the Royal United Services Institute, a defence and security think tank in London.
European countries “have purchased or placed orders for new Patriots to replace those they handed over to Ukraine”, said Bronk. Germany has invested several billion dollars to produce Patriots on its territory.
There is also huge demand from South Korea and Japan, which face a ballistic missile threat from China. Middle Eastern countries also need to replace their depleted stockpiles after the Iran war.
An obstacle course
Trump’s move marks the beginning of what could be a very long process.
“The US president’s announcement doesn’t mean that Ukraine gets the license,” said Timur Kadyshev, senior researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFHS) at the University of Hamburg. “It takes six months to a year just for the paperwork to go through because Patriot systems are under tight export controls.”
It’s only at the end of this administrative process that Lockheed Martin, the main manufacturer for Patriot defence systems, can grant the license to Ukraine.
Another question will be whether the deal would be for the older PAC-2 interceptors, or the newer PAC-3 interceptors. Both models can be used against airborne threats, and Ukraine has employed both in the past to defend itself.
Read moreTechnical details need to be agreed before Ukraine can produce Patriot missiles, Zelensky says
But the two types of interceptors also have more specific purposes.
“PAC-2 was specifically designed for air defence which can target helicopters, airplanes, or cruise missiles. The PAC-3 is a more recent version designed to intercept ballistic missiles,” said Kadyshev.
In the absence of the crucially needed PAC-3 model, Ukraine can use PAC-2 interceptors to defend itself from Russian ballistic missiles, but its precision is much lower. “With a PAC-3 interceptor, the chance of stopping a Russian ballistic missile is about 30-50%, and usually two are used to maximize their efficiency. With a PAC-2 GEMP-T, the chances of intercepting a Russian shot fall below 10%,” said Kadyshev.
Zelensky most likely hopes to produce PAC-3 interceptors on Ukrainian territory. But it's a long road for Kyiv to reach that objective. Japan is currently the only country besides the US capable of producing the system on its territory.
A long-term investment
If Ukraine hits the PAC-3 jackpot, it will still take years to manufacture the interceptors. “PAC-2 production was approved in Germany in 2022, with the first missiles delivered in 2027. Germany is of course not at risk of Russian strikes,” said Bronk.
Ukraine will face specific challenges, beginning with the construction of the factory on its territory. “It will be a major target for Russians as soon as they find it. Ukraine will be required to disperse the weapons production all over the country just to make it harder for the Russians to hit it,” said Kadyshev.
Kyiv will also have to wait for various components. “Lockheed Martin doesn’t make everything. Ukraine will have to sign contracts with subcontractors which produce the interceptor’s components,” said Bronk.
Certain components will probably be harder to obtain than others. “There are currently supply problems for the seeker [which guides the interceptor to the incoming missile],” explained Kadyshev.
Nothing guarantees Ukraine will be prioritized among the clients waiting to receive the interceptors. Economic factors – including which client can pay the most – and political ones must first be considered, according to the experts interviewed.
Kyiv is unlikely to deliver its first interceptor before several years. “We can legitimately ask ourselves about the use of this deal when Kyiv needs the system immediately,” said Aliyev.
For Kadyshev, the development of Patriot systems on Ukrainian soil will serve as “a long-term investment allowing Ukraine to provide itself with a dissuasive force” against attempts by Russia to continue or resume its attacks.
It will also allow Kyiv to help its European allies. If it does indeed develop the capacity to produce PAC-3 interceptors one day, “it will possess the only production line on the continent of high-in-demand technology”, Kadyshev adds.
Until that day, Ukraine has little choice but to continue facing down Russian missile attacks.
“There is unfortunately no miracle solution for the moment,” said Aliyev – other than to intensify attacks against Russian missile factories and launching sites, following the logic that attack is the best form of defence.
This article has been translated from the original in French.
