Wall Street is holding its breath as Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) prepares to release third-quarter earnings after the bell Wednesday, a moment that could either recharge the AI rally or accelerate the recent pullback in tech stocks.
At stake is a potential $320 billion market cap swing, with options traders pricing in a 7% move in either direction.
That's more value than the individual market cap of 475 out of the 500 companies in the S&P 500, underscoring the outsized influence of the world's most valuable company.
Expectations Are Sky High — But So Is Skepticism
Consensus estimates tracked by Benzinga Pro peg earnings per share at $1.25, a 54% jump year over year, with revenue forecast at $54.88 billion, up 71% from third quarter 2024.
Yet even this massive growth may not be enough.
"NVDA near-term is facing the tough task of meeting high expectations and high skepticism around AI capex," said Bank of America's Vivek Arya, who maintains a Buy rating and recently raised his price target from $235 to $275.
Arya said demand clarity and supply chain commentary will be critical, adding that Nvidia remains unique in its full-stack AI hardware capability, with upcoming product cycles in the Blackwell GB200 and Vera Rubin chipsets.
Goldman Sachs' James Schneider echoed bullish expectations, anticipating a beat-and-raise quarter.
"We expect Nvidia to deliver a beat-and-raise quarter," Schneider said, but warned that the stock's reaction will hinge on "the level of upside to guidance."
Investors will be watching for updates on Nvidia's $500 billion datacenter revenue outlook, OpenAI partnerships, the Rubin chip ramp in 2026 and China-related risks.
Technical Risks Mount As Momentum Slows
22V Research's analyst Jeff Jacobson took a more tactical stance, warning that the market may be mispricing the stock's near-term volatility.
"This implied move looks expensive," Jacobson said, referencing the average 3.9% post-earnings move across Nvidia's last five reports.
Technically, he sees $180 as a key support level. "That level has held since late September, even as other parts of the tech trade have stumbled," he said.
A breakdown below that zone could trigger additional selling, especially with trend-following strategies still dominant.
Jacobson also questioned whether Nvidia can still deliver massive one-day gains. "With a market cap of over $4.6 trillion, perhaps the days of 10%+ upside moves on earnings are now behind us," he said.
Macro Impact: Is Nvidia Still The AI Bellwether?
"Nvidia's results have become a macro event," said Morningstar principal Kenneth Lamont.
With the stock held in nine out of 10 AI and Big Data ETFs globally, its earnings carry broader significance for sentiment and positioning across the tech landscape.
Lamont said volatility reflects broader uncertainty about AI's future, cautioning that today's winners could be tomorrow's laggards.
"Framing the debate as either an AI bubble set to burst or the dawn of a lasting transformation misses the point."
"History shows it can be both — the dot-com bust left failures and the seeds of today's tech giants."
Seasonal Weakness Looms Behind The AI Hype
According to historical data from Seasonax, Nvidia has shown a bearish pattern in the weeks spanning from Nov. 19 through Dec. 31.
Over the past decade, the stock delivered negative returns in seven out of 10 years during this period, with an average loss of 2.2%.
| Start Date | NVDA Start Price | End Date | NVDA End Price | Return (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Nov 2015 | $0.76 | 31 Dec 2015 | $0.80 | +5.91% |
| 21 Nov 2016 | $2.29 | 03 Jan 2017 | $2.51 | +9.88% |
| 20 Nov 2017 | $5.29 | 02 Jan 2018 | $4.93 | -6.82% |
| 19 Nov 2018 | $3.58 | 31 Dec 2018 | $3.31 | -7.65% |
| 19 Nov 2019 | $5.17 | 31 Dec 2019 | $5.86 | +13.21% |
| 19 Nov 2020 | $13.40 | 31 Dec 2020 | $13.02 | -2.84% |
| 19 Nov 2021 | $32.92 | 31 Dec 2021 | $29.36 | -10.82% |
| 21 Nov 2022 | $15.30 | 03 Jan 2023 | $14.30 | -6.52% |
| 20 Nov 2023 | $50.38 | 02 Jan 2024 | $48.14 | -4.44% |
| 19 Nov 2024 | $146.97 | 31 Dec 2024 | $134.26 | -8.65% |
Sentiment Still Bullish: Price Targets Keep Rising
Despite caution, Wall Street’s consensus remains bullish. The average price target now stands at $230.50, implying a 27% upside from Nov. 18 close, with 12 major analysts raising their targets in the past month alone:
| Firm | Previous PT | New PT | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loop Capital | $250 | $350 | Nov. 3 |
| BofA Securities | $235 | $275 | Oct. 29 |
| Oppenheimer | $225 | $265 | Nov. 13 |
| Wells Fargo | $220 | $265 | Nov. 14 |
| Stifel | $212 | $250 | Nov. 18 |
| DA Davidson | $210 | $250 | Oct. 29 |
| Goldman Sachs | $210 | $240 | Nov. 3 |
| Rosenblatt | $215 | $240 | Nov. 3 |
| UBS | $205 | $235 | Oct. 29 |
| Susquehanna | $210 | $230 | Nov. 13 |
| Citigroup | $210 | $220 | Nov. 10 |
| Morgan Stanley | $210 | $220 | Nov. 14 |
The highest target now comes from Loop Capital at $350, while the lowest remains $100 from Seaport Global.
Final Word: Can Nvidia Buck The Trend?
Nvidia’s earnings will do more than determine the path of one stock — they could reset the narrative for the entire AI sector.
But traders must weigh potential blockbuster results against historical price action that's often turned bearish late in the fourth quarter.
With sentiment, valuations, and seasonality pulling in different directions, Nvidia may have to do more than beat.
It may have to convince investors that the AI boom still has fuel left in the tank.
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Image created using artificial intelligence via DALL-E.
