Nato leaders will gather in Ankara on Tuesday after a turbulent six months, hoping – in the case of the other 31 members of the alliance – to mollify an unpredictable Donald Trump, as Washington continues to pressure its allies to increase defence spending.
On Monday, Mark Rutte, Nato’s secretary general, called for the allies to present “clear, concrete and credible plans” to reach the organisation’s spending targets. “President Trump fully expects that all allies will step up immediately and get on the path to 5% and do it with urgency,” he said.
Nato members will unveil tens of billions in new arms contracts at an industry forum on the sidelines of the summit, as they attempt to show Trump that they are delivering on defence spending pledges.
The two-day summit in the Turkish capital is expected to agree that allies will commit a largely symbolic €70bn (£60bn) in military aid to Ukraine this year and next, though this largely reflects commitments already made to a country that has no pathway to joining Nato.
It is not a deal to command Trump’s attention in the same way as last year’s headline agreement. Then, European members and Canada pledged to lift defence spending to 5% of their gross domestic product – 3.5% directly and 1.5% on roads, bridges and ports to facilitate troop movements.
“It’s not about keeping anyone happy, it is about delivering,” Rutte said during a visit to London last week. “And what Donald Trump expects, of course, is delivery.”
When Rutte met Trump in the Oval Office last month, he brought along a couple of large cardboard panels, illustrating how much the non-US members of Nato had been spending since the US president started to complain about Europe free-riding on US defence outlay.
Rutte highlighted a chart referring to “the Trump trillion” – the cumulative amount spent on defence by European members and Canada since the two-time president first took office in 2017.
The elementary communication was intended to show, in Rutte’s words, that Trump “is successful in terms of getting the Europeans to spend more”. But with transatlantic relations already at a low, and with the US keen to ensure steps are being taken to honour the 3.5% commitment, a diplomatically harmonious summit cannot be guaranteed.
On Friday, Trump posted a graphic on his Truth Social platform showing Nato members’ defence budgets, comparing a vast US spend of $999m (£747m) with smaller figures from European states including the UK and France.
Introducing the graphic, he wrote: “Ridiculous for the U.S.A. to continue along this one-sided path when the relationship is not reciprocal.”
Since the start of this year, when he threatened to take control of Greenland from Nato member Denmark, Trump has continued to strain relations with US allies. He failed to consult European leaders before the US and Israel launched their economically disastrous attack on Iran, and then complained when they did not allow US jets to bomb Iran from their territory.
There have been spats with Britain, when Keir Starmer refused to fully participate in the bombing of Iran, and with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, whom he bizarrely accused on Monday of being obsessed with him. Relations are also difficult with Canada’s Mark Carney after Trump voiced the extraordinary idea of the US taking over its northern neighbour.
The US is also planning to cut the number of troops and materiel it assigns to Europe in the event of a war with Russia, reducing the number of F-15 and F-16 jets by a third. Last month, Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, said he would hold a further review, looking at US current forces in Europe, and threatening to cut numbers the most in countries that were spending the least.
Trump is expected to bring 1,400 people with him to Turkey, including those responsible for bringing back his toilet waste – a standard protocol to prevent other countries analysing the material for intelligence about his health. That the US is coming in large numbers is seen as a relief, given that Trump has at times flirted with the idea of leaving Nato, including at a summit in 2018.
Nevertheless, there has been a remarkable effort behind the scenes at Trump-proofing whatever happens in Ankara.
Oana Lungescu, a former Nato spokesperson, said she expected the final summit communique – the jointly agreed diplomatic text – to be short, “probably a one pager”, and to “restate some of those fundamentals” that are the alliance’s reasons for being.
The final draft text, still subject to approval by the assembled leaders, reaffirms an “ironclad commitment” to Nato’s all-important Article 5, in which an attack on one member state is considered an attack on all. That its authors have considered it necessary to restate that provision so openly is a reminder of how fraught 2026 has been so far.
Gen Alexus Grynkewich, the senior US and Nato commander in Europe, announced last week that European allies had “largely filled the gaps” that would be left by the reductions in US troops in war. Though substantial, Europe’s effort is not like-for-like, particularly because it has no long-range bombers, though cruise missiles may be an alternative.
A clue to the leaders’ levels of chemistry can be inferred from Trump’s agenda in Turkey. Aside from sitting through one Nato leaders meeting on Wednesday and a summit dinner at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s presidential palace the night before, his only other confirmed bilateral meetings are with Syria’s president Ahmed al-Sharaa – a war leader he admires – and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Success in Ankara is unlikely to be defined by diplomatic pledges. When asked what she thought a positive summit would look like, Lungescu suggested “no angry outbursts from president Trump”, before adding “a reaffirmation of alliance unity” and “a lot more money” for defence contracts and Ukraine.
