The political situation in Venezuela is crisis-ridden after U.S. forces intervened and arrested President Nicolas Maduro and put Delcy Rodriguez in charge of the country.
Although the opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, is claiming that her coalition has the right to lead Venezuela, the U.S. seems to support Rodriguez, a step that highlights the unpredictable and winding road to the democratic transition process in Venezuela.
'She doesn't have the support within or the respect within the country. She's a very nice woman, but she doesn't have the respect,' U.S. President Donald Trump said in a press conference.
Machado to lead - the claim of power by the opposition
The Nobel Peace Prize winner expressed her view that her movement should run Venezuela. Since the ousting of Maduro, she had made it clear that she was ready to serve her nation and that she was determined to bring back democracy and stability to her country.
Machado recognised Trump publicly as a leader of the operation that removed Maduro and saw it as a move towards justice and reform.
Even after she says she won the 2024 elections, her legitimacy is disputed, as the government of Maduro disregards her and her movement as not supported enough.
This move by Machado is not new, as she has been critical of the regime of Maduro based on corruption, treaties, and economic mismanagement, and her decision to have her coalition take over the power is a sign of her will to guide Venezuela to democratic renewal.
The American disposition of Rodriguez
The U.S. has openly supported the leadership of Rodriguez, the former vice president of Maduro, installed as the new leader of Venezuela, as a transitional leader following the arrest of the now ex-president.
U.S. officials have termed Rodriguez a level-headed and tactical decision based on experience and her perceived stability. Although Rodriguez is under U.S. sanctions because she is in the government of Maduro, she has not been accused of any offence, and she argues that the government of Venezuela is carrying out its business on its own.
U.S. policymakers have, however, adopted stability and caution due to the fear that a lot of chaos might arise due to a sudden change of regime.
Experts told the BBC that the U.S. decision to support Rodriguez can be discussed as a strategic decision, which is based on the need to prevent a violent conflict and preserve stability in the region.
The political game: why Rodriguez beats Machado?
The selection of Rodriguez, in place of Machado, has made the issue very controversial. Opponents note that the selection of Rodriguez is consistent with the U.S. strategy of assisting more moderate members of the inner circle of Maduro, and not that of a complete change of leadership.
Other former U.S. diplomats and analysts are of the view that Washington favours Rodriguez because he wishes to keep things stable and prevent the chaos that may follow in case he supported opposition leaders such as Machado, who has a good popular following, yet he has no hold over the military and security operations in Venezuela.
The possibility of violent upheaval or even a civil war has also driven the US officials to prefer someone who they see as having a better chance of being able to handle a transitional stage.
The postulation of domestic power structure
It is speculated that his survival and installation were enabled with the help of the top-level cooperation in the inner circle of Maduro. Others have claimed that she might have been a conspirator or at least a knowledgeable witness of the operation, considering her links with Maduro and her position in the regime.
But some other people state that it was a strategic decision by foreigners to put in place someone who would help in stabilising the volatile institutions in the country without bringing about the conflict.
The military is also an important participant in this power game in Venezuela. Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello are some of the leading people within the government and remain loyal to Maduro, thus making it difficult to undergo any transition process.
It is observed that their backing is a prerequisite to any leader who wants to rule efficiently, either Machado or Rodriguez.
Although the appointment of Rodriguez could bring short-term stability, most pundits warn that the long-term solution to the situation is inclusive political dialogue, respect for human rights, and real electoral reform. Devoid of these, Venezuela can easily tend towards long-term anarchy or authoritarianism.
