Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, aptly characterised the situation in the Persian Gulf in her opening remarks to the virtual international summit on restoring access to the Strait of Hormuz: “We have seen Iran hijack an international shipping route to hold the global economy hostage.”
That is exactly what has happened – and she is also right to tell her counterparts in more than 40 nations that the decision was “reckless”.
However, Ms Cooper was also diplomatic, not to say supremely restrained, when she said that until only a matter of weeks ago, international shipping was moving freely through the now-famous Strait that links the Gulf to the Indian Ocean and beyond. It was only a war of choice launched by America and Israel that has led to the crisis in the first place.
Tellingly, neither Israel nor the US were represented at the meeting, but many Western nations and Gulf states were. The question for them all now, as Ms Cooper didn’t quite put it, is how should the rest of us clear up the entirely avoidable mess less left behind by Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury?
That is both an easy and a terrifyingly difficult question to answer. The short answer is that nothing can be done before the fighting stops, which, on the latest American timetable, is two or three weeks away – assuming the Israelis also cease operations simultaneously.
Nor can there be a military solution. This is because none of these 40-plus nations on the Zoom call, individually or even collectively, has the capacity to succeed in a risky operation that has proven to be beyond even the US Navy, marines and special forces. Security experts agree that it is practically impossible to overcome Iran’s strategic advantages in this narrow stretch of water, let alone on the rocky coastline where the drones, missiles and ‘suicide boats’ are ready to be launched on any hostile forces.
Force is not an option. French president Emmanuel Macron has publicly acknowledged that truth. Despite ignominiously retreating from its task, America has not. As recently as a few weeks ago, President Trump was promising that, “One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!”. “We” in the rest of the world assumed “we” meant the US. It turns out not.
The solution to this serious crisis in global trade – which threatens to perpetuate extreme instability in the region, and hasten the world economy towards recession – will have to be diplomatic.
What is frightening about that is dealing with such a wayward regime as still rules in Tehran. Indeed, one of the many perverse effects of Mr Trump’s ill-starred military “excursion” is that it has enriched and left the Islamic Republic of Iran more powerful than it was a few weeks ago, when it seemed on the verge of renouncing holding stocks of enriched uranium.
What price might Tehran now demand? Fees for traversing the strait? Lifting international sanctions? Offering security guarantees to Iran, and agreeing to oppose future American and Israeli actions? Or all of the above, and more?
Let there be no doubt: America’s allies around the world are being forced to humiliate themselves to the Iranians because the US lost a war that these nations opposed, at least initially. It is a grotesque, appalling situation – and it is President Trump’s fault.
He does not seem to realise, or much care, that if the world economy goes into recession, that will harm America, too. It would be in his country’s interest, as well as many others, if Trump did more – something – to keep the strait open.
After his latest rambling televised address, much of which consisted of reading out old social media posts, this is a moment to stress just how dismal President Trump’s war has been, and continues to be. Operation Fury has turned into Operation Epic Fail. The regime in Tehran has changed only superficially. In fact, it is strengthened, certainly not toppled. If anything, it has become more militant.
Meanwhile, the world faces shortages of fuel, food and energy, rampant inflation and the risk of a slump. The Nato alliance, the most successful in history, is being wrecked. America has betrayed and insulted the Gulf states it needs for a wider Middle East settlement. Other important partners, such as Canada and Japan, have been ridiculed and ignored. Ukraine, which is helping Iran’s victims neutralise the threat of the ubiquitous Shehad drones, has been told by President Trump that he doesn’t need any assistance.
Never has an American president wreaked such havoc on erstwhile friends, and bestowed such priceless security bonuses to his country’s enemies as Donald J Trump. Vladimir Putin and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard must be amazed at their good fortune.
Losing a war so catastrophically is a strange way for America to celebrate its 250th birthday.
There’s only one thing Trump’s rambling TV address made clear…
Striking doctors have forced Starmer to get tough – about time, too
Trump’s plan to leave Nato can only decrease global stability
Without the US, can Nato deter Putin and keep Gulf oil flowing? We may soon find out…
American brute force has failed in Iran – diplomacy must now resume