January Fed Meeting: Live Updates and Commentary

But Wall Street will be tuned into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference – especially after the Department of Justice recently announced an investigation into the head of the central bank and as President Donald Trump is widely expected to announce Powell's replacement any day now.

"Wednesday's Fed announcement will likely keep politics in the headlines," says Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. "Even though the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates, Jerome Powell’s press conference may be as much about Fed independence as it is policy."

The Kiplinger team is reporting live on the January Fed meeting, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy. Scroll for the latest updates.

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Fed meeting schedule for 2026

The next Fed meeting, which runs from January 27 to January 28, marks the first gathering of 2026.

"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, "When Is the Next Fed Meeting?".

The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."

Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm.

Here is the full Fed meeting schedule for 2026:

January 27 to 28

March 17 to 18

April 28 to 29

June 16 to 17

July 28 to 29

September 15 to 16

October 27 to 28

December 8 to 9

- Karee Venema

Expect more volatility this week, says Wedbush

Last week's volatility in the stock market, which saw the S&P 500 explore a 145-point intraday trading range and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) hit its highest level since November, was sparked by President Trump's turnaround on a potential annexation of Greenland and a new round of tariffs on Europe.

Wedbush analyst Seth Basham expects more volatility this week as market participants sift through a jam-packed earnings calendar and assess the January Fed meeting.

As for the Fed meeting, Basham expects the central bank to maintain a more cautious approach despite political pressure.

"We expect Fed Chair Powell to signal heightened caution at upcoming meetings," the analyst writes in a January 25 note. "With the administration running the economy hot and PCE inflation still roughly 80 basis points above the 2% target, policy changes are likely to pause for some time."

And given Powell is near the end of his term, Basham believes "he’s likely to maintain vigilance against inflation, even if it means disappointing equity investors and the President who are seeking easier financial conditions."

- Karee Venema

When does Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair end?

President Trump has not been subtle in his dislike of Fed Chair Powell. But the question of whether or not Trump can fire Powell is seemingly moot given that his term as Fed chair is up in just a few months – on May 15, 2026.

It's unlikely that those in Trump's inner circle will encourage him to disrupt the status quo and replace Powell before his term is over – which could potentially send stocks and bonds tumbling – given that there's such a small amount of time left.

And the president is widely expected to announce his choice for Powell's replacement any day now. Top candidates include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett and Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer of fixed income.

For what it's worth, Powell's term as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve ends on January 31, 2028.

- Karee Venema

There are more rate cuts to come, just not this week

The majority of Fed members believe that additional rate cuts will be necessary at some point, says Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle, but he doesn't expect the next one until June.

"Chair Powell is likely to emphasize that the FOMC has just delivered three cuts that should help to stabilize the labor market and is well positioned for now while it assesses their impact," says Mericle.

And if the labor market steadies, rate cuts become less urgent, he adds.

Mericle thinks the Fed will issue its final cut in September, bringing the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.0 to 3.25%.

"We see the risks over the next year or two as tilted to the downside because we think hikes are quite unlikely but could imagine a few reasons for additional cuts, and our probability-weighted Fed forecast is a bit below both our baseline and market pricing," he notes.

- Karee Venema

Who gets to vote at the January Fed meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 total members, eight permanent and four who rotate each year.

The eight permanent voting committee members include the Fed chair and vice chair, the five Fed governors and the president of the New York Fed.

Four regional Fed presidents are rotated in each calendar year.

The 2026 FOMC voting committee consists of:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell*

Vice Chair Philip Jefferson

Fed Governor Michael Barr

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

Fed Governor Lisa Cook

Fed Governor Stephen Miran**

Fed Governor Christopher Waller

New York Fed President John Williams

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson

In 2027, the presidents from Chicago, Richmond, Atlanta and San Francisco will rotate in as FOMC voting members, according to the Federal Reserve.

* Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair is up in May 15, 2026

** Stephen Miran's term as Fed governor is up on January 31, 2026

- Karee Venema

What is Wall Street expecting from the next Fed meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged when its January gathering concludes on Wednesday.

Of more interest, writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows, is how Chair Powell will manage his press conference as "the Fed's independence has come under question, and Powell is set to preside over just two more meetings before his term as Fed chief ends on May 15."

To get a sense of what Wall Street is expecting from the next Fed meeting, Burrows "turned to economists, strategists and other experts for their thoughts on monetary policy going forward."

Read what they had to say here: What Will the Fed Do at Its Next Meeting?

Who is Rick Rieder?

President Trump is expected to announce his pick to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair any day now.

The conversation has been ongoing for several months, and many folks are by now familiar with the two Kevins: former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett.

Hassett has moved down the list in recent weeks after President Trump said he'd like him to remain in his current role, while another name has moved into contention: Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of fixed income and global head of asset allocation at BlackRock.

Mr. Rieder joined BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, in 2009, and currently manages roughly $2.4 trillion in assets. He previously served as CEO of R3 Capital Partners and as head of global principal strategies at Lehman Brothers.

Rieder has served on several government panels, including the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets.

Kalshi prediction markets currently put Rieder, whom Trump called "very impressive" in a recent CNBC interview, in the lead.

"Either of the two leading candidates, Rick Rieder or Kevin Warsh, are likely to be welcomed by markets as well-credentialed and more than capable of serving in the role," says Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy & research and Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.

- Karee Venema

Who appointed Jerome Powell as Fed chair?

Jerome Powell assumed the role of Fed chair on February 5, 2018, after being nominated by then-President Donald Trump, who was serving his first term in the White House.

Powell's initial four-year stint as head of the Federal Reserve ended in 2022, but he was reappointed for a second four-year term on May 23, 2022, after being nominated by then-President Joe Biden.

Powell initially joined the Fed's Board of Governors in 2012 after he was nominated by then-President Barack Obama.

While Powell's second term as Fed chair will expire in May 2026, he can remain on the Fed's board until January 2028.

- Karee Venema

It's a big week ahead for Wall Street

This week will be a busy one on Wall Street. In addition to the Fed meeting, market participants will also have a full earnings calendar to sift through.

Most notable are the handful of Magnificent 7 stocks reporting, including Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla (TSLA), whose results will be released after Wednesday's close. Apple (AAPL) will report after Thursday's close.

The outlooks from Apple, Meta and Microsoft will be particularly crucial, says Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam. "With AI investment still ramping up and profit margins expanding, Wall Street expects mega-cap tech to deliver another year of standout earnings growth: +25% versus +15% for the broader S&P 500."

Adam adds that "valuations may appear more compelling," with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Mag 7 stocks at the lowest level since 2017. "Taken together, the setup may suggest that despite the early stumble, mega-cap tech still has plenty of room to outperform as the year unfolds."

- Karee Venema

The odds of a government shutdown are rising

The risk of a partial government shutdown looms after Senate Democrats said they would block a funding bill that includes spending for the Department of Homeland Security. This comes after federal immigration agents fatally shot another U.S. citizen this weekend in Minnesota.

Part of the deal reached to end the record-long government shutdown in November included a continuing resolution that would fund most federal agencies through January 30, 2026.

The House of Representatives has passed several annual funding measures in recent weeks and the bills were widely expected to pass the Senate until this weekend's fatal shooting of Alex Pretti.

"Importantly, one of the nine annual appropriations bills passed by the House is Homeland Security, which houses Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)," say Wells Fargo economists Michael Pugliese and Tom Porcelli. "In the wake of the incident, some Senate Democrats who were widely expected to support the budget bill have pulled their support until there have been some policy and process reforms to CBP/ICE."

Another shutdown would leave the Fed in a tricky spot, the two add. "The lack of visibility that arises from receiving limited economic data could thrust an already divided FOMC into a period of stasis. Fed officials lamented the lack of clarity on inflation during the last shutdown. We expect they would again use this argument to delay additional cuts."

The January jobs report is currently scheduled for release next Friday, February 6, while the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is slated for Tuesday, February 11. Another government shutdown puts the data at risk of being delayed or canceled outright, as we saw last fall.

Related: What Does a Government Shutdown Mean for Stocks?

- Karee Venema

Where have all the Fed speakers been?

The Fed-speak has been nonexistent over the past week or so. That's by design. Since Saturday, January 17, and until Thursday, January 29, participants in the FOMC meeting have been bound by a Federal Reserve policy that limits the extent to which they can talk about the economy and interest rates.

These two-week "blackout periods" begin the second Saturday that falls 10 days before the next FOMC meeting and end the Thursday that follows the meeting. The Fed's blackout period was an unofficial practice that began in the 1980s. It was formalized in 2011 and reaffirmed in January 2025.

Fed-watchers see the policy as a measure against corruption and the potential for information leaks to distort markets. It also provides cover for open discussion during the Fed's most intense periods of policy-making.

Here is a schedule for all blackout periods through January 2028.

- David Dittman

Stocks close higher to start Fed week

It was a positive start to Fed week for the main equity indexes. At Monday's close, the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6% at 49,412, the broader S&P 500 had added 0.5% to 6,950, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 0.4% higher at 23,601.

Over in the bond market, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note slipped 1.3 basis points to 3.592%, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 2.6 basis points to 4.213%.

Read more: Dow Rises 313 Points to Begin a Big Week

What the January Fed meeting could mean for consumers, according to Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel expects the January Fed meeting to be "somewhat uneventful."

The Fed cut rates three times to end 2025 in response to a weakening labor market and recent guidance suggests the central bank wants to assess the impact of those cuts before it makes any additional moves, he explains.

While a pause may be disappointing to consumers, Zureick says that there is some good news. "At last month's meeting, 15 of 19 FOMC participants projected that at least one more 0.25% rate cut will be appropriate this year," he says. "Most economists expect that inflation should continue to progress toward the Fed's 2% target throughout 2026, which should allow the Fed to bring rates down a bit more without fear that easier monetary policy could lead to higher inflation."

Forecasts project two more quarter-point rate cuts, which Zureick believes is "reasonable given the current economic environment."

 The economist notes that the appointment of a new Fed chair is one dynamic that could "alter the course of policy this year." And while it's unclear who President Trump will choose, Zureick points out that the common theme among the potential candidates "is that they are all somewhat supportive of continued rate cuts."

Still, consumers hoping to consolidate high-interest loans or refinance high-rate mortgages may not find relief from the Fed.

While the central bank "controls short-term interest rates, longer-term loans like mortgages are benchmarked to longer-term interest rates, which take their cues less from monetary policy and more from the overall health of the economy," Zureick explains. "If the economy continues to hold up, longer-term interest rates may stay elevated even if the Fed elects to cut rates a couple more times this year."

- Karee Venema