Iran is unlikely to give up control of the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. intelligence reports obtained by Reuters.
The assessment is that Tehran's grip on the key waterway, through which about 20% of the world's energy moves, is the only real leverage the country has over the U.S.
Trump has urged other countries to help reopen the strait, also appearing to suggest on Friday that he could order U.S. troops to do so. "With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE," Trump said in a social media post.
However, Reuters also quoted experts saying that attempting to reopen the strait through force could be costly and result in a protracted war.
Moreover, Iran has said it will seek to control as a result of the ongoing war. "The Hormuz Strait regime will no longer be as it was in the past. The government is determined to turn the achievements on the ground into stable economic and security benefits for the country," said Iranian Vice President Mohamed Reza Aref in late March.
In fact, a report noted that Tehran has already charged ship operators $2 million to go through the key waterway through which about 20% of the world's energy goes through, citing the cost of the war.
Bloomberg detailed that some ships have paid the charges, but details about the mechanism and currency used are not clear. Payments have been made discreetly, and only a small number of vessels have made it through.
Iran could also inflict pain on the U.S. if it were to seek a forceful reopening of the strait. CNN reported that about half of Iran's missile launchers remain operative after more than a month of war.
The outlet detailed that the country also has access to thousands of one-way attack drones. Estimates are that about half of its arsenal has not yet been deployed or destroyed.
"They are still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region," a source told the outlet.
Elsewhere, CNN noted that most of Iran's coastal defense cruise missiles have not been impacted, an assessment that is consistent with the U.S.'s focus on assets in central Iran, rather than its coast.
