With a federal judge expected to issue a ruling on the government's antitrust suit against Google's search business by the end of August, chances that he will order a Chrome divestiture appear slim. The ruling on remedies has been a major overhang on Google stock.
Judge Amit Mehta of the U.S. District Court of the District of Columbia in a 2024 ruling declared Google a monopolist in internet search. Mehta ruled that its parent Alphabet illegally maintained a monopoly over online search services and prevented rivals from developing their own products.
Mehta earlier this year held hearings over what legal remedies should be taken.
The Department of Justice has asked Mehta to order Alphabet to sell its Chrome browser. Another proposed remedy is unwinding Google's default search deals, including payments to Apple. Alphabet pays Apple over $20 billion annually to make Google the default search engine on iPhones.
Remedy Options
"There's a sizable menu of options for him to choose from," William Kovacic, a professor at George Washington University Law School, told IBD. Kovacic served as Federal Trade Commission chairman in the George W. Bush administration.
"I suspect that he will be inclined to do more than simply issue an injunction that says Google must discontinue harmful behavior," Kovacic added. "In his original decision Judge Mehta said Google has done some valuable things for the economy and for individual consumers. So I think he's wary of a form of intervention that would disable Google from being an effective competitive force in the future."
Google is likely to appeal the 2024 ruling as well as whatever Mehta does in terms of legal remedies.
"I think this case is a strong candidate to make its way to the Supreme Court, which means we may be three years away from a final resolution of the case," Kovacic said. "And my intuition is that any remedy that requires significant changes in the business model and the operation of the firms would also likely be put aside until the appeals are finished."
During the 2024 trial, search competitors Perplexity and OpenAI talked about how not having their own browser has made it harder to collect as much data as Google.
Database Sharing One Possibility
"I think he is very likely to impose some forced sharing of data that will help competitors catch up in building a viable search competitor to Google," said Rebecca Allensworth, a professor at Vanderbilt Law School. "He spent a lot of time on these issues in the (remedies) hearing and asked a lot of questions. On the other hand, he did not spend much time on the divestiture remedy and did not ask many questions about that possible remedy. At this point, I think an order requiring divestiture of Chrome would be a surprise indeed. But we also know that Judge Mehta has held his cards close to his vest."
Kovacic agreed that giving third parties access to Google's database is a possibility. Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts also are speculating on Mehta's decision on remedies.
"We continue to believe that most outcomes, save for a Chrome divestiture, will have a relatively small impact on Google's distribution and use of its products," said RBC Capital analyst Brad Erickson in a report.
He added that Google has disclosed that 54% of its search revenue is driven through default placements, such as Apple.
Apple Reaction?
JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth in a recent report said Apple bears watching.
"Importantly, the ultimate impact to Google will also depend on how Apple — not technically a party to the suit — proceeds in search on Safari once the Google-DOJ case is resolved," Anmuth said.
He added: "Of all the (possible) remedies, we'd be most surprised by a Chrome divestiture and restrictions on artificial intelligence."
There's been speculation that Apple could pursue an acquisition of Perplexity to catch up in artificial intelligence-based internet search.
Meanwhile, Perplexity on Aug. 12 made an unsolicited $34.5 billion bid for Google's Chrome browser, according to a report. The company said several investors have agreed to back a deal.
RBC's Erickson said: "Regarding Chrome, we struggle with how that asset could attract a buyer, given it is not a business but rather a product, aside from a strategic buyer like OpenAI. With that said, the downside scenario in a forced Chrome divestiture would be significantly worse, while also highly dependent on the buyer where any AI provider would likely preference its products over Google's."
Advertising Antitrust Case Could Impact Google Stock
Google also faces another antitrust case. In April, Judge Leonie Brinkema of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia ruled that Google has used classic monopoly-building tactics to dominate online advertising. The DOJ had claimed Google's dominance of the digital ad market has damaged advertisers and content creators.
Some analysts have called it the "DoubleClick trial." In 2008, Google acquired leading digital advertising firm DoubleClick for $3.1 billion.
Brinkema has slated hearings in September to discuss possible remedies.
The government has stated that Google should sell off its Google Ad Manager, which includes the company's publisher ad server and its ad exchange. The ad servers and the market for ad exchanges sit between buyers and sellers.
Google stock has gained nearly 7% in 2025, rebounding from a lackluster first half of the year.
The antitrust case has loomed over Google stock. The impact of generative artificial intelligence on the internet search advertising business of Google remains another key issue for investors.
Follow Reinhardt Krause on Twitter @reinhardtk_tech for updates on artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and cloud computing.
