The first tropical storm of the season is expected to form later this week.
Forecasters said that a tropical depression was projected to form in the eastern Pacific, around several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
“Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico,” the National Hurricane Center said in a Tuesday update.
“While the system currently lacks a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the next day or two as the low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.”
They gave the disturbance a high chance of formation over the next 48 hours to a week.
If it forms, the storm may move clouds and rain toward the Gulf Coast states as early as this weekend, according to AccuWeather. It would be called Alvin.
The formation would mark an early start to the eastern Pacific hurricane season. The average date for the first storm of that season is on June 10, according to NASA. Last year’s first storm, known as Tropical Storm Aletta, didn’t form until the Fourth of July. That marked the latest start to an eastern Pacific hurricane season in the satellite era.
Hurricane Hone brought flood damage to Hawaii, knocking out the power for tens of thousands of people.
The eastern pacific hurricane season began May 15 and runs through November 30. However, the average first hurricane typically only forms by June 26.
Right now, the Atlantic basin is quiet, with its season starting on June 1. However, this year’s Atlantic hurricane season is anticipated to be above-average, once again, with climate change fueling warm ocean waters that supercharge the cyclones.
Between 14 and 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes are projected for the eastern Pacific this year, according to AccuWeather. That’s a higher number of hurricanes than the historical average.
"With waters starting off cooler than historical average and likely to continue through the summer off of California, the circulation of any non-tropical storm offshore that forms could help pump moisture and generate heavy rainfall in not only New Mexico and Arizona, but perhaps Southern California and Nevada as well late in the summer season," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "It is a lot of ifs, but that is something we are looking at closely."
