Europe should prepare for world without US nuclear deterrence, former Nato chief warns

It was a stunning rebuke to Denmark, Greenland and their European allies, including the UK, who in a joint statement insisted Greenland “belongs to its people”. A hostile takeover would amount to the end of the Nato alliance, Denmark’s prime minster warned.

Rose Gottemoeller, who served as Nato’s deputy secretary-general during Trump’s first administration, believes that Washington’s increasingly erratic behaviour signals not only a threat to the alliance itself but raises doubts about the US nuclear umbrella over Europe. This, she says, could trigger a new era of nuclear proliferation.

An estimated 100 US owned nuclear warheads are stored across five European Nato member states, in the event of an external threat.

“Everything that the United States is doing to raise doubts about its support for the Nato alliance will raise doubts about its willingness to extend a nuclear deterrent guarantee to Nato Europe. That creates the potential for future proliferation of nuclear weapons,” adds Gottemoeller.

The longterm diplomat also held a number of senior positions within the State Department including undersecretary for arms control and international security.

She says this is already playing out in Asia, with countries including Japan, South Korea and even parliamentarians in Germany speculating about their need for nuclear weapons.

“The Trump administration does seem to want to a send the message that the Western Hemisphere is ours, both north and south,” she continues, adding that it has returned to a “might is right approach.”

“They want to end what has been the post Second World War law-governed order enshrined in the UN Charter.”

The US is locked in an extraordinary showdown with Europe and Nato after Trump’s increasingly hostile stance towards Greenland, which the president has repeatedly said he would “acquire” or “buy”.

On Tuesday, the White House said Trump had been discussing a “range of options”, including military action, despite a joint statement from European leaders and now the European Union insisting Greenland “belongs to its people”.

On Wednesday, the French foreign minister said Germany, France and Poland planned to meet this week to put together a plan should Trump act on his warnings. US secretary of state Marco Rubio is set to meet Denmark next week as tensions have soared.

The US’s stunning military operation on Venezuela over the weekend, has only stoked fears of armed action in Greenland. Special forces bombed multiple bases and captured the country’s authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro, who is now standing trial in New York on “narco-terrorism” charges.

The concern is that an emboldened Trump could now make an equally bold move on Greenland, which has a population of just under 57,000, but has been in the US president’s sights since he first spoke of buying the territory during his first administration.

“The events [in Venezuela] are, no doubt, a short, sharp shock, and a big boost in the wake up call. It will further require the Europeans to figure out how they are going to lead now, and that that is going to be a challenge,” Gottemoeller adds.

“Because if you don't have the first among equals, the primus inter pares, of the United States, who is going to lead in Europe?”

Greenland is home to one of the US’s most important military facilities, the Pituffik Space Base. Greenland’s strategic location close to Russia, the Arctic Circle and vital maritime routes into the North Atlantic, means it plays a crucial role in US defence providing unparalleled missile warning, space and maritime surveillance capabilities.

Trump is also - no doubt - eyeing the island for its vast untapped deposits of rare earth minerals, needed to make smartphones, electric vehicles and advanced weapons. The global rare earth market is currently dominated by China, which accounts for around 60 per cent of mining.

But a US military attack on a treaty ally, Denmark, one of Nato’s founding members, would be not only “unprecedented” but an “existential” threat to the alliance and would make the US a “hostile actor”, Gottemoeller explains.

It not only paints a future of Nato without the US, but one in which “doubts are raised about that extended nuclear deterrent commitment”.

The worst case scenario, she warns is that the developing crisis creates opportunities for Moscow and Beijing.

“Putin may redouble his efforts against the Ukrainians, but also to amp up pressure on the Europeans.” Beijing could go for Taiwan.

“I'm finding it hard to understand why the US wants to take on all these battles at once. But they do seem to be clearly wanting to send the message that the Western Hemisphere is ours, both north and south.“