Dow Jones futures rose solidly early Thursday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, as President Donald Trump touted a "major trade deal" with the U.K. MercadoLibre, Fortinet, Axon Enterprise, AppLovin and Carvana headlined a busy night of earnings.
The stock market rally rose modestly Wednesday as President Trump moved to rescind the Biden administration's last-minute tiered AI-chip restrictions, opposed by many countries and chipmakers such as Nvidia.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve sees stagflation risks and Fed chief Jerome Powell is still "in no hurry" to act before Trump tariffs' impact is clear. Google parent Alphabet plunged as Apple raised new concerns about AI chatbots' threat to Google's core search business.
The video embedded in the article discusses Wednesday's market action and analyzes Halozyme Therapeutics, Uber Technologies and JPMorgan Chase.
Trump Touts 'Trade Deal' With U.K.
President Trump said Wednesday night on Truth Social that he would announce a trade deal Thursday morning.
"Big News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M., The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!"
Early Thursday, Trump followed up, confirming reports that the deal would be with the U.K.
The president said, "The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one."
The U.K. deal may be a framework vs. a finalized accord. It could be narrow in scope, with auto tariffs a key element.
It's notable that the U.S. already has a goods trade surplus with Britain, but has still imposed a 10% tariff on U.K. goods.
Earlier this week, the U.K. reached a far-reaching deal with India.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures climbed 0.7% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures gained 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.3%.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up slightly to 4.3%.
Crude oil futures rose more than 1%.
Bitcoin is nearly back to $100,000.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Earnings
MercadoLibre, Fortinet, Axon Enterprise, ADMA Biologics, AppLovin, Carvana, Arm Holdings and Paycom Software were notable earnings reports Wednesday night, with Argenx and Shopify out before the open.
AppLovin stock, MercadoLibre and Axon stock were big overnight winners, with Paycom rising slightly. All four could be actionable Thursday. Carvana stock rose solidly, working toward a breakout.
Fortinet stock, Shopify, Argenx and ARM dived while ADMA also fell.
Fed Meeting
As expected, the Fed took no action. But the policy statement did cite rising "uncertainty" and stagflation risks. Fed chief Powell once again said the central bank's dual mandate of high employment and stable prices may be "in tension." But Powell remains in "no hurry" to act with Trump tariffs and other economic policies still very much in flux.
Policymakers can't be "preemptive" when they don't know what they're preempting, he said. He noted that hard economic data remains solid for now.
Notably, Powell dodged a question about whether a June rate cut was possible.
Markets still see the first 2025 Fed rate cut in July, which would be after the 90-day pause on President Trump's extreme tariff hikes.
President Trump, in a Truth Social post early Thursday, said that "too late" Powell is a "FOOL!, who doesn't have a clue."
Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally was up and down for most of Wednesday's session as the Trump administration said it won't go ahead with a Biden-era plan. The plan for a three-tier AI system would limit the most advanced chips to the U.S. and a handful of key allies. Nvidia stock popped 3.1%.
Earlier, the Federal Reserve and Fed chief Powell saw stagflation risks and preached patience. Opening bell enthusiasm for weekend U.S.-China talks waned as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said they'll just be a beginning, not advanced discussions.
Google and Apple stock were megacap drags. Several earnings reports and corporate announcements undercut recent renewed optimism in AI hardware spending.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% in Wednesday's stock market trading, buoyed by Disney. The S&P 500 index climbed 0.4%. The Nasdaq composite advanced 0.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 0.3%.
The Dow Jones and Russell 2000 tried to reclaim their 50-day lines Wednesday, but couldn't quite close above that level. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, which was up 0.7%, did move back above its 50-day.
U.S. crude oil prices declined 1.7% to $58.07 a barrel.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell four basis points to 4.27%.
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ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF rose 0.4%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF climbed 0.8%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF popped 2.05%. Nvidia stock is the dominant SMH holding.
ARK Innovation ETF rallied 1.7% and ARK Genomics ETF bounced 2.4%.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF fell 1.2%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF closed just above break-even. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund gained 0.8%.
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund advanced 0.5%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF finished 0.6% higher.
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Google Dives On Apple Search Comments
Google stock plunged 7.3% to 151.38. Apple VP Eddy Cue said in a court hearing that Google searches on its mobile Safari browser fell in April for the first time. That revived concerns that artificial intelligence competitors such as OpenAI's ChatGPT will erode Google's core search and search ad business.
Apple's Cue also said the iPhone giant may add AI search options to its Safari browser vs. Google as the default search option. That could include Google's Gemini but also others.
Cue testified at an antitrust hearing after federal judge Amit Mehta last year ruled that Alphabet illegally maintained a monopoly over online search services. A big part of that reflected Google's huge payments to Apple, seen as north of $20 billion annually, to be the default iPhone search engine. Judge Mehta could order an end to that deal.
Apple stock fell 1.1%.
What To Do Now
The stock market rally is pausing, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq between key levels. Leading stocks are acting reasonably well, with new handles being formed.
It's a good time to stand pat, keeping overall exposure steady until there's more clarity. If the S&P 500 and Nasdaq can punch through their 200-day lines, investors will have plenty of new buying opportunities. If the indexes undercut their 50-day and 21-day lines, it might be time to step back.
So stay flexible. Be ready to go on offense or defense, with watchlists and exit strategies up to date.
Remember, the market often has a day two reaction to Fed meetings. U.S.-China trade talks this weekend could keep markets rangebound until Monday.
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