Dow Jones futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The first day of U.S.-China trade talks concluded, with no deal but President Donald Trump hailed "great progress."
The stock market rally saw small losses last week, with the major indexes still rangebound despite Trump trade optimism. However, many leading stocks broke out or flashed buy signals.
Tesla cleared an aggressive entry Friday. Palantir Technologies forged a new buy point.
Chinese giants Alibaba and Tencent are due this coming week, both near early entries. Walmart kicks off retail earnings, with WMT stock in a buy zone. Two recent IPOs, Nvidia-backed data center play CoreWeave and aerospace systems firm Karman, also are on tap.
Palantir stock is on IBD Leaderboard. Palantir and CoreWeave stock are on the IBD 50.
U.S.-China Trade Talks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer held lengthy talks Saturday in Geneva with top Chinese officials including Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva.
President Trump, on Truth Social, hailed "A very good meeting today with China, in Switzerland. Many things discussed, much agreed to ... GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!"
Talks will resume Sunday.
The weekend negotiations are the first public, face-to-face meeting since President Donald Trump imposed 145% tariffs on China and Beijing responded with 125% tariffs on most American goods and rare earths export controls.
Various reports late last week suggested the U.S. might cut China tariffs from to 50%-60%, but President Trump posted Friday that 80% "seems right." The 50%-60% range would likely be the outer limit to allow for substantial U.S.-China trade.
Trump did note that the China tariff decision would be up to Bessent.
On Thursday, Trump announced a preliminary U.K. trade deal. That will trim some duties but leave a 10% baseline tariff on British goods.
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Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
Dow futures will likely take their cue from the U.S.-China trade talks.
There were some indications that Dow futures were tracking modestly higher following President Trump's positive Truth Social post.
In other geopolitical news, India and Pakistan agreed to a cease-fire after four days of conflict between the nuclear-armed nations. But within hours India claimed Pakistan was violating the temporary truce.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally paused after big weekly gains in the prior two weeks and three of the last four.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.2% in last week's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index sank 0.5%. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%. All are above their 50-day moving averages, but slightly below the 200-day line.
The small-cap Russell 2000 edged up 0.1%.
Leading stocks showed strength, with many breaking out or extending moves.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose six basis points to 4.37%.
U.S. crude oil futures jumped 4.7% to $61.02 a barrel last week.
Growth ETFs
The Innovator IBD 50 ETF rose 0.3% last week. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF edged up 0.2%, with PLTR stock a big holding. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF popped 2%.
ARK Innovation ETF fell 1.1% last week and ARK Genomics ETF plunged 6.8%. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest's ETFs. Cathie Wood's ARK also owns a big Palantir stake.
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Key Earnings
Alibaba and Tencent report this week, with both stocks around their 50-day lines within bases. Strong earnings moves could offer early entries. Alibaba and Tencent aren't especially affected by the U.S.-China trade war, but may give insight into how Trump tariffs are impacting the Chinese economy.
Walmart stock fell last week, but is still above a cup-with-handle buy point, according to MarketSurge. The Dow heavyweight may offer insight into Trump tariff impacts and its response.
CoreWeave stock will report for the first time as a public company. CRWV stock is in an IPO base. Investors could use Friday's high of 56.82 as a potential post-earnings entry.
Space and aerospace play Karman will release its second post-IPO earnings report. Shares are flirting with record highs. A post-earnings move could offer a buy point.
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock popped 4.7% on Friday to 298.26, punching above the 200-day line and several weeks of trading. Friday's move offered an aggressive entry above the May 2 high of 294.78.
Tesla stock has a lot of overhead, and is still far below the Dec. 18 peak of 488.54.
Tesla stock is taking a ride on robotaxi optimism, with CEO Elon Musk sticking to plans for a June launch. The actual business is struggling, with Q1 earnings down 40%. Tesla told Austin workers on the Model Y and Cybertruck lines to stay home for Memorial Day week, Business Insider reported Friday, amid weak demand and rising inventories.
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Palantir Stock
Palantir stock fell 5.6% to 117.30 last week, but rebounded from the 21-day line. PLTR stock now has a handle. The new cup-with-handle base buy point of 125.26 is only fractionally lower. But the pause is giving some time for the moving averages to try to catch up.
Palantir reported strong earnings last week that met views, while a seventh straight quarter of accelerating revenue growth topped estimates. The AI data analytics giant also guided higher.
What To Do Now
The market rally is showing constructive action. The indexes held steady after big gains while many leaders offered buying opportunities.
Investors could have added more exposure in the week.
If the indexes decisively clear the 200-day line, it would be a green light to keep adding exposure. But a break below the 50-day line, especially for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, would be a reason to scale back positions.
Weekend U.S.-China trade talks could be a big catalyst up or down, or it could be a nothingburger.
Earnings season is still on, including Alibaba, Walmart and CoreWeave.
Keep working on those watchlists. Have your exit strategies set up, just in case.
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