Donald Trump is learning the hard way that even America needs allies

It is fair to say that the current conflict has not gone to plan, quite possibly because there never was much of a plan in the first place. Iran was not as puny a foe as President Trump assumed. For one thing, as is now clearer than ever, it enjoys effective control of much of the world’s supply of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz, with the baleful effects now being felt internationally.

One of the few things the Islamic Republic of Iran can be said to be superlative at is the taking of hostages. That is exactly what it has now done to the global economy.

The other special skill of Iran, and of its terrorist associates in the region, is asymmetric warfare. It is a world leader in using cheap but devastating drones on civilian and industrial targets.

The ill-defended highrise hotels, the ritzy malls, and the vast oil and gas fields of the Gulf states provide a rich array of targets. “Force majeure” has already led to the closure of the Qatari LNG operations, the most important export supply on Earth. Most importantly, Iran is busily strangling what is arguably the world’s most critical waterway – the Strait of Hormuz. The regime’s hold on power seems secure.

It was indeed not supposed to be this way. Only a few days ago, the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, an absurdly swaggering ex-Fox News host, declared smugly that no one needs to worry about the strait because “it’s something we're dealing with, we have been dealing with it”.

Now, worryingly, President Trump himself has been pushed by events to ask for help from various countries, mostly allies, that depend on oil and gas from the Gulf. These include Japan, France, South Korea, the UK – and China.

There is a particular naivety about asking Beijing to help America win a war that China has already condemned, and in which it is rumoured to be supporting Iran and negotiating immunity for its own vessels.

For a number of reasons, it is also a problematic request for the rest of the allies the US has called upon. First, it’s America’s war, and Israel’s. Other countries belonging to the “West”, if that term still applies, were never consulted about it. If they had been, they would have been rightly horrified. Not only that, but Mr Trump said he didn’t need any help from anyone.

Being asked to help clear up the mess is therefore rather galling, not least because Mr Trump has spent the past year insulting, undermining, imposing tariffs on, and even threatening to annex land from otherwise friendly powers.

The second issue is still more difficult, and arises because this war was so clearly not thought through. As was stated bluntly by Sir Keir Starmer, no one else wants to be dragged into a US-Israeli war of choice that has no endgame in sight.

By the sounds of it, Sir Keir and others may agree to dispatch some limited resources, such as mine-busting drones, but only when a “viable plan” has been worked out – a pointed reference to America’s ill-prepared rush to conflict. In those circumstances, another loose “coalition of the willing” might come up with a scheme to liberate the Persian Gulf to maritime traffic, but it will have to be one agreed by all those involved, and not just be a matter of placing the Royal Navy under US control for the duration.

What has been obvious from the outset remains true now. There is, in fact, no military solution to the very genuine problem of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. On the other hand, there is wide international consensus that an Iran armed with nuclear weapons would be a disaster for the region and a threat to the world, triggering a rapid proliferation among Iran’s neighbours, with Israel, even with its own nuclear weapons, badly exposed.

A negotiated settlement with Iran under international supervision remains the best way forward, and is inevitable when the fighting stops. In truth, it will be close to the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama that Mr Trump withdrew from in his first term in 2018. Indeed, such a treaty was almost agreed a few weeks ago, before Mr Trump was persuaded by Benjamin Netanyahu to go to war instead.

The terrible irony is that the war has actually strengthened Iran’s negotiating power. It has not been President Trump’s finest hour. His Nobel Peace Prize has probably slipped from his grasp – but at least he may have finally learnt that even the US needs allies.