A new poll shows Cuban Americans in South Florida are diverging from the Trump administration's reported openness to negotiations with Cuba's government, with large majorities opposing any deal that does not lead to regime change and backing military intervention as an alternative.
According to a survey of 800 Cuban and Cuban American residents conducted for the Miami Herald, 69% said they "strongly oppose" an agreement that would allow the current Cuban government to remain in power in exchange for economic reforms, while overall opposition to such a deal reached 78%.
In addition, 77% said they would be dissatisfied with negotiations that improve living conditions without leading to free elections and democracy, and 68% rejected talks that could strengthen the government "even if it delays improvement of conditions for the Cuban people."
The findings published by The Herald come as the Trump administration increases pressure on Havana while also reportedly exploring contacts with members of the Castro family and weighing possible contingency plans. According to officials cited anonymously by USA Today the Pentagon has been refining options involving Cuba while awaiting direct orders from President Donald Trump.
The Department of Defense has declined to comment on "hypothetical scenarios," saying only that the armed forces prepare for a range of contingencies and remain ready to carry out presidential orders.
Those reports have surfaced amid months of escalating U.S. pressure, including restrictions on oil shipments to the island and broader efforts to force political change. Trump has repeatedly said Cuba could be his next target after Iran and has stated that the United States could "take Cuba," adding that it could be done "friendly... or not."
Despite that dual-track approach of pressure and possible talks, the poll indicates strong resistance within a key political constituency to any negotiation perceived as preserving the current system. "For many in the community, democracy and freeing is not a bargaining chip. It's the entire point," said Fernand Amandi, president of Bendixen & Amandi International, one of the firms that conducted the survey.
Amandi added that "if a negotiation props up the communist government, most Cuban Americans would rather see no negotiation at all."
The poll also found consistent opposition to negotiations across political affiliations and demographic groups, suggesting the stance is not limited to a single segment of the Cuban American community. While some respondents supported dialogue in principle, many said it would only be acceptable if it resulted in a transfer of power.
"There would have to be a transfer of power," said Carlos Sanjurjo, who favors negotiations but not under current conditions.
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