France will this week become the latest EU country to set out plans to expand its army, with Emmanuel Macron expected to announce on Thursday that military service will be restored – albeit on a voluntary basis – nearly 30 years after the end of conscription.
In the face of Russia’s military threat and uncertainty over the US’s commitment to defending its transatlantic allies, Europe is rushing to bolster its defence industry and its deployment capability after radically cutting them back since the cold war.
Despite significant losses in its war on Ukraine, Russia is perceived by European militaries as a potential direct threat within two to five years. Meanwhile, Washington has made it clear that it expects its EU allies to take care of much more of their own defence.
But if the issue of defence industry investment is chiefly economic, the question of how to significantly expand the number of full-time armed services members is also very much societal – and is leading to heated debates across several countries.
Fabien Mandon, France’s top general and chief of staff of the armed forces, prompted media and political uproar last week by saying the country must be ready “to lose its children” since Russia was “preparing for a confrontation with our countries by 2030”.
The thinktank wrote in a recent report: “Most European armies struggle to meet their recruitment targets and retain trained personnel, as well as to generate a sufficient reserve.”
Sophia Besch, a defence specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said “growing military personnel shortfalls” were forcing more and more western European countries to explore various kinds of conscription models.
“Training cycles will also need to be intensified for reservists, which some countries need to reactivate in large numbers,” Besch said. “For countries without a tradition of military preparedness, all this poses a politically and socially sensitive challenge.”
Several EU countries have some form of conscription, led by the Nordics and Baltics where “total defence” underpins military thinking and draft intakes are widening. Finland has one of the world’s largest reserves, based on universal male conscription.
Sweden reintroduced selective conscription – with mandatory registration for men and women, but a strict selection process that takes into account several factors including physical fitness and youths’ “willingness to serve” – in 2018.
Denmark’s conscription system was extended to women and lengthened to 11 months from four in June. Estonia has universal male conscription, while Latvia and Lithuania, like Denmark, select conscripts by lottery if there are not enough volunteers.
Elsewhere, Croatia, which abolished mandatory military service 18 years ago, recently restored conscription, while Poland is working on a plan to prepare large-scale military training for every adult male in an effort to double the size of its army.
While recent polls have found that majorities in several European countries, including Germany, France and Poland, support some form of mandatory military service, other countries have so far steered clear of conscription.
Germany’s government this month decided against a system of compulsory military service after a bitter debate, opting for a voluntary model instead – but if that fails to find the numbers, it will reconsider a compulsory nationwide call-up.
France’s proposed scheme is unlikely to include reintroducing the mandatory military service abolished in 1997. Several countries offer perks such as cash bonuses, preferential access to public sector jobs and higher education places to military service volunteers.
Army leaders generally say that volunteers are more professional and motivated than conscripts, but volunteer armies are expensive. Conscripts not only make up the numbers of active service personnel, but provide a large pool of potential reservists.
Compulsory military service, however, is no panacea and can be counterproductive. “In countries where there is domestic resistance, mandatory conscription could even undermine public resolve to shore up the national defences,” Besch argued.
“Most successful European conscription models now rely on a strong degree of volunteerism – but instilling a willingness to serve in a population that does not have a recent history of military service takes time and sustained domestic debate.”
