To mark the first anniversary of his inauguration, Donald Trump held a news conference that was perhaps his most peculiar yet. Armed with a thick sheaf of papers and a stack of laminated mugshots from ICE raids in Minnesota, the leader of the free world embarked on a repetitive, rambling weave of familiar and improbable boasts.
Slow, and low-energy, his delivery didn’t inspire and must have made anyone watching wonder about how this character – 80 years old in June – will perform in his remaining three years in office. Most of the “365 achievements for 365 days” hailed by Mr Trump will not have been felt by Americans suffering from a very real affordability crisis.
Over the first year of his second term, Trump has set about destroying the rules-based economic and security order that delivered unparalleled prosperity and security for the West, and helped win the Cold War. He has also insulted allies, leaked confidential conversations, and ridiculed nations. He has betrayed Ukraine. He has trashed the constitution that he twice pledged to preserve, protect and defend. For the first time, an American president has refused to rule out the use of force against an ally, in Greenland. Shamefully, he indicates it is because the Nobel committee declined to award him its peace prize, one of the great non sequiturs of diplomatic history. As a result, Mr Trump told the world that he no longer feels “an obligation to think purely of peace”. These are chilling words – and, to repeat, aimed at a Nato ally. No wonder Vladimir Putin looks pleased these days – and backs Mr Trump’s policy in the Arctic, something that should, but won’t, trouble Mr Trump.
Trust, under constant strain in his first term, has now all but evaporated among America’s allies, with trade wars launched and treaties torn up on a whim. Always unpredictable, frequently irascible, in recent days he has also displayed a degree of aggression unusual even in “Trump Rex”.
The president has grown hungry and is ready to devour fresh territory: Greenland immediately, and Canada and Venezuela ideally. Until the Stars and Stripes fly over Denmark’s autonomous territory, a retaliatory 10 per cent trade tariff is threatened on imports from several European countries, Britain included.
And Trump’s fury keeps spilling over. The Chagos Islands deal to regularise the UK-US base on disputed territory in the Indian Ocean, once hailed by Trump as a “monumental achievement”, is suddenly condemned. The president thinks Sir Keir Starmer, a prime minister who has only ever been warmly received by Mr Trump, is “giving away extremely important land in an act of GREAT STUPIDITY”.
To the further dismay of strong, loyal allies who’ve fought and spilt blood alongside American forces in countless conflicts, this president badmouths his friends, while flattering and appeasing America’s enemies.
Even on its own terms, Mr Trump’s demands make little sense. He claims Russia is such a threat to US security in the northern hemisphere that Greenland must be annexed, but is relaxed about Russia’s very real invasion of Ukraine and constant testing of European defences.
Perhaps as a coping mechanism, old friends are openly wondering if the president is fit for office. The Danes call him “mad”, the French think the situation “crazy”, and even the British have stiffened their language. On Monday, Sir Keir said the latest trade war threat was “completely wrong” – measured, but still loud and clear.
One of his senior ministers, Darren Jones, has gone so far as to label the president’s behaviour as “not normal” – but he leaves it to Emmanuel Macron of France to go further, saying Europe should not be forced to bend to “the law of the strongest”. In Davos, a day before Mr Trump’s arrival, the French president set out the case for sane governance. “We prefer respect to bullies,” he said. “We prefer science to conspiracies, we prefer rule of law to brutality.”
The European response to the Tyrannosaurus rex does not yet live up to California governor Gavin Newsom’s advice to world leaders to “stand tall, stand firm, stand united”. This is because some, such as Sir Keir, and Italian premier Giorgia Meloni, want to persist with strategic patience, no doubt fearful of US retaliation on trade and defence cooperation. Others – notably Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia – are reluctant to “stand united” in any case.
Looking ahead to how things may develop over the next year, there is cause for cautious optimism. As early as next week, the US Supreme Court could strike down some or all of Trump’s trade tariffs as unconstitutional. The bond markets remain a powerful force, as was seen in the trade disputes last year, giving rise to the expression “Taco” – Trump always chickens out. Even loyal Republican senators are letting it be known they will not tolerate military action in Greenland, impeachment being the reserve power.
US midterm elections in November may yet deprive the president of one or both houses of Congress. Some of the damage Mr Trump has done to the reputation of America, to the fight against climate change and the safety of the world, may prove irreversible. The conclusion, for Europe and for the wider West that holds to the values of plural democracy, is clearer than it has ever been.
What is needed is for the embryonic “coalition of the willing” – created by Sir Keir and Mr Macron to defend Ukraine – to become the next great force in the world, free nations collaborating to create an economic and military superpower to answer Russia, China, and possibly also the United States. If this is to be a world governed by force rather than by law, Europe and its allies around the globe know what to do.
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