After nearly 21 months of bloody war, it now appears a question of when rather than if a new ceasefire brings a pause to the fighting that has devastated Gaza, destabilised the region and horrified onlookers across the world.
On Friday, Donald Trump said he expected Hamas to agree within 24 hours to a deal that Israel has already accepted. Analysts predict a formal announcement after Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, arrives in Washington on Monday on his third visit to the White House since Trump began his current term.
If a new ceasefire does come into effect, it will be the third during the war, in which about 57,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, have died.
The first lasted just 10 days in November 2023. The second was forced on a reluctant Netanyahu by Trump in February this year and ended in March when Israel reneged on a promise to move to a second scheduled phase that could have led to a definitive end to hostilities.
The terms of the new deal include the staggered release of hostages held by Hamas; freedom for hundreds of Palestinians in Israeli jails; desperately needed aid for Gaza; and the phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from some parts of the strip seized in recent months.
Once again, the ceasefire will last for 60 days, during which time talks about what happens next will be held. Trump and regional powers are offering guarantees to reassure Hamas that Israel will not simply return to an all-out offensive and that meaningful discussions about a permanent end to the war will actually take place.
One factor that has brought a new ceasefire closer is the brief conflict last month between Israel and Iran, which ended in a US-brokered ceasefire. That capped a series of military and political developments that had seriously weakened Tehran and the various militant groups it had supported around the region, which include Hamas.
More important is the boost that gave Netanyahu. Though polls record only a slight increase in support for his Likud party and in his personal popularity, many Israelis nonetheless rejoiced in what was seen as a crushing victory over a much-feared foe.
If Netanyahu brings the war in Gaza to what voters see as a successful, or at least acceptable, close, Netanyahu can stand in elections – probably next year – claiming to be the man who made Israel safer than it has ever been, even if few have forgotten the security and strategic failures that led to the Hamas attack of October 2023 in which militants took 251 hostages and killed 1,200, mostly civilians.
By the end of this month, Israel’s parliament will have risen for a three-month recess and courts will also not sit, giving Netanyahu respite from the threat of a no-confidence vote or dissolution motion as well as from continuing cross-examination in his trial for corruption. This undermines the threats to collapse the government made throughout the conflict in Gaza by far-right coalition allies bitterly opposed to a deal with Hamas.
Successive opinion surveys show that an agreement that brings back hostages would be very popular with Israelis, so this, too, would help Netanyahu in elections. Israeli casualties in Gaza – 20 soldiers died in June – are also causing concern. A poll published by Maariv, an Israeli newspaper, on Friday showed a further boost for the prime minister as hopes of a ceasefire rose.
As for Hamas, analysts and sources close to its leaders say the militant Islamist organisation is divided, much weakened by the Israeli onslaught in Gaza and aware that it has few allies who can or will offer any practical support. The main aim of its leaders now is to retain some presence in Gaza, even a residual one. This alone would constitute some form of victory, and partly explains the determination with which Hamas seek a permanent end to the fighting.
Whether it will get one is still not clear. Israeli media have been briefed by “sources close to Netanyahu” that if Hamas cannot be disarmed in Gaza and its leaders exiled from the devastated territory through negotiations then Israel will resume military operations, and that Washington would support its decision to return to war. Many “close to Netanyahu” also continue to support mass “voluntary” emigration from Gaza, or the relocation of much of its population to an area in the south, or both.
Recent days have been noisy with voices: American, Israeli, Saudi Arabian, Qatari and many others. Barely heard have been the voices of the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza, where Israel’s offensive continues. On Friday, local officials and medics said Israeli airstrikes killed 15 Palestinians in the territory and another 20 people died in shootings while waiting at food points.
