The promise of an unexpected financial windfall—specifically, a $2,000 stimulus check—continues to fuel rampant speculation and fervent hope across American households. Talk of President Donald Trump's proposed direct payments, often referred to as a 'tariff dividend,' has intensified recently.
However, for millions eagerly checking their bank accounts, the harsh reality remains: there is virtually no concrete information or official approval for this proposal, and the circulation of unverified rumours poses a real risk of fraud.
Stimulus checks, which are direct payments the federal government sends to Americans during periods of economic strain, were last issued in 2021 when millions received up to $1,400 through the American Rescue Plan. Since then, no new round of federal stimulus payments has been formally approved by Congress.
Americans must treat any news about these rumoured payments with extreme caution, as it is often misinformation or a direct attempt at fraud. These payments have not been officially approved, as neither Internal Revenue Service (IRS) nor Congressional officials have confirmed them, which is the non-negotiable first step in sending out stimulus checks.
The Legislative Deadlock: Why A $2,000 Stimulus Check Has Not Been Approved
Despite the intense speculation on social media about a payment arriving in 2025, it remains highly unlikely that a Stimulus Check, tariff refund, or IRS direct deposit will happen this year. While political proposals have been floated—and President Trump has repeatedly vowed to send payments—there has been zero legislative action.
In order for a stimulus payment to become a reality, Congress would have to approve the proposal, which has yet to happen. With lawmakers currently focused on passing government funding legislation, there is no news, updates, or movement on any such proposals.
The timeline provided by the administration itself pushes any potential payment into next year. On 17 November, President Trump vowed to issue dividend checks to 'individuals of moderate income' sometime in 2026, before the midterms.
Trump stated: 'We've taken in hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff money. We're going to be issuing dividends later on. Somewhere prior to, you know, probably in the middle of next year, a little bit later than that. Of thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income.'
He added that his administration also expects to pay down some of the growing national debt, which he put at $37 trillion.
Crucially, the IRS has not officially approved $2,000 stimulus checks to be sent out to Americans in 2025. The opportunities to claim or file for the three prior COVID-era stimulus payments have also now passed, with the final deadline for the third stimulus check expiring on 15 April 2025.
Who Qualifies For The Next Stimulus Check: Unpacking The 'Middle Income' Promise
The proposal for a $2,000 'tariff dividend' payment is still only an idea being floated, lacking any formal detail or legislative backing. Budget experts have already raised serious concerns about its financial feasibility.
- Previous Proposals: This is not the first time President Trump has hinted at using tariff funds for direct payments. After he suggested it in July 2025, Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley introduced the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025. That bill would have provided a minimum of $600 per adult and dependent child, or $2,400 for a family of four. However, the bill stalled in a Senate committee with no updates as of November. Earlier in 2025, there was also unconfirmed talk of a 'DOGE dividend,' funded by money the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cut from other groups.
- The Funding Gap: According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Trump's $2,000 proposal would cost about double the money that the US is expected to make in new import duties. Policy expert Erica York noted that if the income cutoff for eligibility were $100,000, the total cost would be close to $300 billion. However, officials noted that as of 30 September, the federal government had generated only $195 billion in tariff-related revenue.
- Eligibility: Based on Trump's recent comments, the income qualifications would exclude 'high income people' and target 'middle income people and lower income people.' Using Pew Research Center's definition, which defines middle class as households earning between two-thirds and double the median household income (which the US Census Bureau reports as $83,730 in 2024), the middle class consists of people making somewhere between $55,820 and $167,460. Those earning less than $55,820 make up the lower-income bracket.
This classification, however, is heavily influenced by location. For example, the median household income in high-cost areas like San Jose, California, can exceed $136,000, compared to less than $40,000 in cities like Detroit, Michigan. Until Congress formally approves a bill, eligibility criteria for any future stimulus check remain entirely theoretical.
