Yes, the Golden Globes were boycotted by most of Hollywood last year. Yes, Tom Cruise handed back all of his past Globes in protest. Yes, no one can quite agree what the point of the Golden Globes even is.
Still, 12 months after the annual awards show went untelevised for the first time in its 77-year history, they are back! For… reasons!
Hosted by Jerrod Carmichael, the beleaguered ceremony returns tonight with numerous clouds hanging over it.
Cruise, he of the one-man protest, isn’t nominated for Top Gun: Maverick, despite seeming to be a shoo-in.
Brendan Fraser, who has long alleged that he was sexually assaulted by the former president of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association – the organisation behind the show – isn’t going to attend despite being nominated. (Philip Berk, the former president in question, has denied the allegation.) No one’s really talking about the very valid criticisms of the Association’s past lack of black members, nor its history of apparent corruption when it comes to exchanging gifts and freebies for awards.
So here we are: an awards show once considered merely a throwaway diversion, now considered just murky and unpleasant. It remains to be seen whether the ceremony’s nominees will show up, or whether winning a Golden Globe is more of a poisoned chalice now than something to celebrate.
While those questions linger, we’ve determined – of the major categories – who’s most likely to win on the night and who, if the Globes were arbiters of great work rather than a vaguely grim enterprise, should truly be taking home trophies.
Best Motion Picture, Drama
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
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Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
It is likely that this will be a battle of box office, with the two biggest hits of 2022 fighting it out for the win. But considering Tom Cruise missed out on a Best Actor nod – and his apathy for the Globes in general – it feels like it’s Avatar’s to lose.
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Because I refuse to live in a world where James Cameron is king.
Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Triangle of Sadness
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
A tiny – if proud! – minority of people found this surprise smash confused, repetitive and unbearably long despite its undeniably brilliant central performance from Michelle Yeoh. But, if we’re being honest, the rest of this category may as well not show up.
Should Win The Banshees of Inisherin
Not confused, repetitive or unbearably long, this incredibly funny yet unexpectedly profound meditation on masculinity, community, friendship and ambition is one of the best films of the year.
Best Director, Motion Picture
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Baz Luhrman, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
This feels slightly inevitable. A plus, though? It’d be nice to see the scrappy upstart beat out a category of industry veterans at least.
Should Win: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Throwing awards at Steven Spielberg feels like a cliche at this point, but this semi-autobiographical drama is genuinely worthy of such plaudits. It’s a thing of wonder.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son
Bill Nighy, Living
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Will Win and Should Win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser’s presence here feels slightly cruel considering his history with the Globes, and you can’t imagine the organisation shining a glaring spotlight on itself by giving him the award, either. So there leaves Butler – a great newcomer in a great movie. He’s no Tom Cruise, but he’s not even here! For shame!
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Diego Calva, Babylon
Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Adam Driver, White Noise
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
Will Win and Should Win: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Farrell, a well-liked actor who’s never had a truly awards-magnetised role despite dozens of acclaimed performances, pretty much has this category sewn up. It’ll be much deserved.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Will Win: Ana de Armas, Blonde
The Globes clearly like De Armas – she was nominated in 2020 for Knives Out – and winning for such a contentious, largely disliked movie feels like the kind of curveball this particular awards show specialises in. In fairness, she’s at least really, really great in Blonde. But imagine the think-pieces if she takes it!
Should Win: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Playing (sort of) Steven Spielberg’s mother, Williams dares to go big here, but manages to find the chaotic, restless humanity in an outsized character. She gives one of the best performances of the year.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Anya Taylor Joy, The Menu
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win and Should Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Both as a tribute to Yeoh’s long career and a celebration of her sterling work in Everything Everywhere All at Once, this would be a much-deserved win. However, shoutouts are warranted for Manville and Thompson – two legends doing brilliant, deceptively complex work in their respective star vehicles here.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
The closest thing all of this awards season has to a widespread shoo-in, a win for Ke Huy Quan echoes the probable win for Yeoh (though she has greater competition in her category). A former child star – best known for his roles as Short Round in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Data in The Goonies – whose career unfairly slowed down once he hit early adulthood, Quan has long deserved a comeback. That he does such fine work here is a bonus.
Should Win: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Still! Keoghan is so heartbreakingly good in The Banshees of Inisherin that it feels a shame to see his work become a bit of an awards season also-ran.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
This is one of the tougher categories to predict this year. You have two Hollywood legends who could cancel each other out, one ascendant star, one under-the-radar character actor, and one leading lady who absolutely should not be in a supporting-role category. Let’s just go with Curtis.
Should Win Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Apologies for all the Banshees stumping here, but Condon’s work in it – as Colin Farrell’s headstrong sister and one of the few people in the film who truly dreams of more from life – is spectacular. You want to immediately dive into the rest of her (vast, if often overlooked) filmography five minutes after it ends.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series, Drama
Jeff Bridges, The Old Man
Kevin Costner, Yellowstone
Diego Luna, Andor
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Adam Scott, Severance
Will win: Bob Odenkirk
Should win: Adam Scott
There’s a lot of love around for Odenkirk right now, what with the Breaking Bad spin-off Better Call Saul airing its last-ever episode in the summer (it was given five stars by The Independent’s Louis Chilton). But Adam Scott’s performance as a grieving husband in Severance was beautiful and strange and definitely award-worthy.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series, Comedy or Musical
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Will win: Jeremy Allen White
Should win: Donald Glover
There was a lot of hype about The Bear and White’s performance as a chef running his family’s Italian beef sandwich shop. But actually the Brits did chaotic cooking much better in Boiling Point. This award should really go to Donald Glover, whose show – which he once described as “Twin Peaks with rappers” – is a smart, surreal masterpiece that doesn’t get enough attention this side of the Atlantic.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series, Drama
Emma D’Arcy, House of the Dragon
Laura Linney, Ozark
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Hilary Swank, Alaska Daily
Will win: Zendaya
Should win: Laura Linney
Zendaya has won two Emmys for Euphoria. She knows she’s great in it. We all do by now. But Laura Linney hasn’t won any major awards for her toxic matriarch in Ozark, which aired its fourth and final season last year. So I’m rooting for her this time.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series, Comedy or Musical
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Jean Smart, Hacks
Will win and should win: Quinta Brunson
The odds are on Quinta Brunson winning for her peppy performance as a Philadelphia school teacher in this fantastic, singular mockumentary, which she also created. And so they should be. I’d also love to see Jean Smart win for Hacks, but she was awarded for her role by the Globes last year… not that anyone was watching.
Best Miniseries, Anthology or Motion Picture Made for Television
Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Pam and Tommy
The White Lotus: Sicily
Will win and should win: The White Lotus: Sicily
The Sicily edition of The White Lotus contained more easter eggs and generated more fan theories than many sci-fi or superhero shows this past year – pretty rare for a wealth satire. It’s been the talk of the town all autumn and it should be a sure thing for best limited series.
Best Television Series, Drama
Better Call Saul
House of the Dragon
Will Win and Should Win: Severance
While this category marks the final time the Globes could throw awards at Ozark and Better Call Saul – both of which ended their runs last year – it feels like the night’s big prize will go to a newbie. Severance, even more than Game of Thrones prequel House of the Dragon, was one of the surprise hits of 2022, and has quickly become Apple TV+’s dramatic crown jewel. It’ll likely take the win.
Best Television Series, Comedy or Musical
Only Murders in the Building
Will win The Bear
Should win Hacks
Sharp-tongued comedy Hacks and its star pairing Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder deserve all the awards they can get, but it looks like this smart show might be pipped to the post by The Bear – the sleeper hit of last summer.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Limited Series/Anthology or Motion Picture
F Murray Abraham, The White Lotus
Domhnall Gleeson, The Patient
Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird
Richard Jenkins, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Seth Rogen, Pam and Tommy
Will win: Paul Walter Hauser
Should win: F Murray Abraham
Abraham’s flatulent, horny grandpa was a stand-out in the second season of The White Lotus. But it seems like this award might go to Hauser, who played suspected serial killer Larry Hall in Black Bird.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Musical, Comedy, or Drama
John Lithgow, The Old Man
Jonathan Pryce, The Crown
John Turturro, Severance
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler, Barry
Will win and should win: John Turturro
John Turturro melted hearts as Lumon employee in Severance, and the romantic storyline he shared with Christopher Walken was hard to take your eyes off.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Limited Series/Anthology or Motion Picture
Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Claire Danes, Fleishman is in Trouble
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Under the Banner of Heaven
Niecy Nash-Betts, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus
Will win and should win: Jennifer Coolidge
Jennifer Coolidge, in all her glorious chaos, is having a moment. And her performance in the finale of The White Lotus season two generated instant, and never-ending, memes. The biggest competition she has in this category is her own co-star, Aubrey Plaza, who played the series’ scorned ice queen.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Musical, Comedy, or Drama
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Julia Garner, Ozark
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Will Win and Should Win: Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Abbott Elementary is one of the few big hits to be broadcast on traditional TV in the US – meaning not on cable or a streaming service – so it’d make sense for the Globes to send awards its way. Of the two scene-stealers here, Sheryl Lee Ralph takes the edge just as the veteran star has been overlooked for so long.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television
Taron Egerton, Black Bird
Colin Firth, The Staircase
Andrew Garfield, Under the Banner of Heaven
Evan Peters, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Sebastian Stan, Pam and Tommy
Will win: Evan Peters
Should win: Taron Egerton
While Peters certainly invested a lot in his portrayal of Dahmer – he even wore the serial killer and sex offender’s real clothes – that whole show just felt a bit, well, icky. Besides, Egerton was one of the best in the true-crime genre this past year with his role as former drug dealer turned undercover agent Jimmy Keene.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television
Jessica Chastain, George and Tammy
Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
Lily James, Pam and Tommy
Julia Roberts, Gaslit
Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout
Will win: Julia Garner
Should win: Amanda Seyfried
Seyfried’s strange, frazzled performance as disgraced entrepreneur Elizabeth Holmes was spot-on. There was a lot of hype about Julia Garner’s work in Ozark though, so she has some strong competition there.
The Golden Globes are broadcast live in the US tonight, at 1am GMT on Peacock via Sky