Forget Wall Street’s complex models, and consider the simple logic powering stock investors right now.

Behind the scenes of another middling earnings season is evidence that analysts are deceiving themselves when they predict things will be much better by Christmas.

One of the worst things that can happen to an investor this year is finding out how her companies are actually doing.

The top current talking point for Credit Suisse Group AG clients is the simultaneous rally in equities and bonds in recent months that suggests two potentially incompatible narratives, according to strategist Mandy Xu.

Earnings season had a few hitches last week but is generally off to a decent start. About 15% of companies have reported, and 25% report this week. Key ones to watch in coming days include Amazon, Facebook, Tesla, Ford, AT&T, and Alphabet.

We already know all three of these major central banks have made it clear over the past seven months that they will do more easing and more unconventional policies if needed.