After a marathon seven-hour cabinet meeting at Downing Street, and 10 days before the UK is scheduled to crash out of the EU without a deal, Theresa May has unveiled an updated Brexit plan. Here is what we know so far.
What has the prime minister announced?
She has called for talks with Jeremy Corbyn to try to work out a compromise Brexit plan that both the government and Labour could agree to. If this happens, the plan would be swiftly put to the EU. If not, parliament would be asked to vote on what plan MPs would like to see, with the government agreeing to abide by the results. This would, May said, involve another brief extension to the departure deadline.
What would be the timetable?
If it happens and the EU agrees – both remain to be seen – a compromise deal would be put to next week’s European council summit, paving the way for departure on 22 May, rather than 12 April, as currently scheduled.
(April 10, 2019) Plan or extension agreed by EU27?
Having asked for a further Article 50 extension until 30 June, Theresa May will present whatever deal or plan she has reached with Jeremy Corbyn and parliament to the European Council. EU leaders would decide how long any further extension might run, but there is no guarantee the EU27 would unanimously agree.
(April 12, 2019) Possible no deal departure?
With no other significant developments, this would still be the date that the UK leaves the EU by international law. However, Yvette Coooper's bill in parliament is attempting to legislate to rule this out.
(May 23, 2019) European parliamentary elections
The EU27 will vote for a new set of MEPs without the UK participating. However, if Brexit has been delayed beyond Theresa May's new proposed date of 30 June, then the UK could still hold European elections on Thursday 23 May.
(June 30, 2019) Possible departure with a deal?
If Theresa May's new proposal does pass parliament, and is approved by the European Council, then this could be the new scheduled date of the UK's departure from the EU. Crucially it is before the new European parliament sits, meaning the UK would not have had to participate in the elections.
(July 1, 2019) Conservative leadership election?
Theresa May is expected to stand down after the UK leaves the EU on whatever date, having agreed that somebody else should lead the next phase of negotiations. This will trigger a Conservative leadership election. There has been some suggestion that she might hold out through the summer so that the contest takes place after the next Tory conference in October.
(April 10, 2020) Possible departure after a 'Flextension'
Donald Tusk has proposed a flexible extension, allowing the UK to leave the EU at some point before a cut-off date of 10 April 2020, at the point where the UK parliament can ratify an orderly departure.
Does this mean a softer Brexit?
It is hard to see how it would not. Any compromise with Labour would involve May dropping some of her red lines, and at the very least Corbyn will seek a permanent customs union with the EU. If May refuses to budge at all, then under the terms of her proposal the issue would move to MPs, who would be expected to back a softer form of departure.
Could it end up with MPs deciding it?
This seems very possible, but depends a lot on how far May is willing to bend. The PM has been shown three times that the Commons clearly does not support her Brexit deal. She has now made the move to compromise, but it seems perfectly realistic that she and Corbyn will be unable to hit upon a plan that works for both of them and, just as crucially, their parties.
Could there still be a second referendum?
It seems possible. Corbyn will be under intense pressure from his MPs to make support for a deal conditional on it being endorsed in a public vote, and Labour has whipped its MPs to back this option in the recent indicative Commons votes. This could be the undoing of a compromise plan, as May has repeatedly made it plain that she cannot countenance a second referendum.
What prompted May’s change of tack?
A sheer lack of other options. There had been talk of May’s Brexit plan being put to the Commons for a fourth time, but No 10 stressed repeatedly this would only happen if there was a realistic chance of it passing, and with both the Democratic Unionist party and her hard-Brexiter MPs still vehemently opposed, this appeared impossible. Two sets of indicative votes by MPs also failed to see a majority for any alternative plan. The default option, leaving without a deal on 12 April, was opposed by a majority of MPs and a number of cabinet ministers.
Has May managed to keep her party together?
Only time will tell. The softening of her stance has enraged the European Research Group of hard-Brexit Tory MPs, but they disliked May anyway and this will have been factored in. The big question is whether the PM can keep her Brexiter cabinet ministers on board.
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