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Passenger profiles are unreliable crystal balls

Photo: HT

As border control is a major aspect of governance, and terror is still a risk, one cannot argue against state access to lists of flier identities. Yet, oddly, our record of individuals wanted for financial wrongdoing flying off is dismal. This vigil is the job of our immigration bureau, though, not Customs, which must concern itself chiefly with incomers, especially those who seek to sneak stuff into India that’s either barred or liable for import duty. The word for this is ‘smuggling’ and our high-tariff past once made ample space for arrivals from overseas to play the role of smugglers at our airports (often unwittingly). By virtue of its value for weight efficiency, gold has long been the hot choice of wilful smugglers. Tariff reduction with India’s economic reforms had squeezed profits in such risky price arbitrage, but a local premium on the metal kept this glittery game alive. As reported, airport seizures of gold added up to almost 586kg in 2021-22, up from about 400kg the year before. Some six weeks ago, as part of an effort to dissuade imports in general, the Centre raised its basic import duty on gold brought along in their baggage by Indian citizens and arrivals of Indian origin who’d stayed abroad for over six months from 7.5% to 12.5% (plus a 1.25% surcharge), subject to a limit of 1kg per person. Others must cough up a heftier charge of 38.5%. Could an enlarged incentive for gold sneak-ins have gone into the CBIC’s data call-up?

Like various popular assets, gold saw a sharp pandemic uptrend driven by a global gush of stimulus cash, but its price—both globally and locally—has been largely flat ever since central banks began to call off easy-money policies. This year’s outbreaks of retail inflation and war-led uncertainty have not acted as gold price escalators, which suggests a slight drop-off in public perceptions of its worth as a safety hedge against those value wreckers. Crypto options might also have stolen some of its glitter. In any case, the metal’s allure as a store of wealth in perpetuity can hardly be taken for granted. Its holdings are a physical burden and offer no stream of earnings. But nor can we assume would-be smugglers to be savvy investors, or anything else about them for that matter. Smuggling is a tawdry duty-made temptation. It’ll probably go on, with no saying by whom. Artificial Intelligence or not, it’s hard to see how predictive profiling of fliers will help nab them.

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