We’re getting into crunch time, with just five weeks left in the college football season. Ohio State is sitting at No. 1 in the selection committee’s rankings rankings, and is just five wins away from the College Football Playoff. That’s a guarantee. What if the Buckeyes lose a game, though? What will maximize Ohio State’s chances of getting into the Playoff with one loss? Let’s break down what to root for.
First of all, Wednesday night’s win by Miami (Oh) over Ohio was good for the Buckeyes. The Redhawks are now prohibitive favorites to win the MAC East. With Cincinnati in control of the AAC East, Ohio State is likely to have two of its nonconference opponents playing in their respective Conference Championship Games. (FAU needs some help from Marshall to get in the Conference-USA Championship Game, but the Owls look in solid position as well.) Speaking of Cincinnati, UCF plays Tulsa on Friday night. A UCF win will likely get the Knights ranked, which will only boost Cincinnati’s resume.
Upsets in general are still good for the Buckeyes, particularly in the SEC. Florida losing to Vanderbilt, though unlikely, would weaken the resumes of both Georgia and LSU. That could matter if the conversation of a one-loss Ohio State vs a one-loss SEC non-champion comes up for the final spot. Also at noon on Saturday, TCU upsetting Baylor can’t hurt, and SMU should win to keep its ranking high before a potential AAC Championship Game showdown with Cincinnati.
At 12:30, root for Georgia Tech over Virginia. Not only would that upset weaken Clemson’s eventual ACC Championship Game opponent, but it would keep us on the path to the entire ACC Coastal finishing at 4-4 in conference. That would be hilarious.
As we get to the afternoon block (we’ll discuss Alabama-LSU later), root for Kansas State to beat Texas. Usually upsets are better, but in this case it’s not. First of all, a Texas win would likely lead to both Texas and Kansas State staying ranked. Second of all, a one-loss Baylor isn’t really a threat to Ohio State; there’s no need to worry about the quality of Baylor’s wins. There is a need to worry about LSU’s resume, and a Texas win in this game would be a big boost to LSU. Also, Oklahoma is more of a potential threat than Baylor, and since the committee has shown that it values good wins over worse losses, a Texas win would help Oklahoma’s resume more than it hurts it.
In that same window, root for Cincinnati to play better against UConn this week than it did against ECU. Also, a win by Virginia Tech over Wake Forest would knock out the Demon Deacons and further hurt Clemson’s resume. Miami (Fl) beating Louisville and USC beating Arizona State provides marginal benefits, but nothing really meaningful.
At night, a Missouri upset over Georgia would all but end the chances of a two-bid SEC. Appalachian State upsetting South Carolina would make Georgia’s loss look even worse. Notre Dame beating Duke would be better for Georgia, but a Duke win would help Alabama’s resume as well as (potentially) Clemson’s, so rooting for Notre Dame is the better option. As always, N.C. State upsetting Clemson (highly unlikely) or Iowa State upsetting Oklahoma (less unlikely) are good, too.
Next… Who to root for in Big Ten games
Penn State @Minnesota
This is actually a tough game to root on. Minnesota winning a close game is almost certainly better for the Big Ten as a whole. Penn State winning in a blowout is the best outcome if the Buckeyes lose to Penn State. On the other hand, if 12-0 Ohio State meets 12-0 Minnesota in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes would be a virtual lock (assuming that whatever conditions would be needed to get an 11-1 Ohio State in are also met). Either outcome could be beneficial for the Buckeyes here, but we won’t know precisely which that is until we get closer to the end of the season.
Purdue @Northwestern
This game doesn’t matter too much, and the minimal benefit that could come from Purdue reaching six wins would be outweighed by the fact that that means the Boilermakers would beat Wisconsin and Indiana. Northwestern will be viewed as a cupcake regardless of if it wins this game or not, but I guess root for Northwestern because the Buckeyes played the Wildcats. And 3-9 or 4-8 for Northwestern is better than 2-10, I guess.
Illinois @Michigan State
The Buckeyes played Michigan State and didn’t play Illinois. The Spartans are going to get to six wins regardless, as they close the season against Rutgers and Maryland. Illinois, meanwhile, would get to six wins (and four straight) with a win here, and would likely end 7-5 with a season-ending game against Northwestern. Who to root for in this game might ultimately depend on who wins the next game on this list. The value of Michigan State getting to seven wins might actually be outweighed by the value of Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois not looking so bad in the end. (If Illinois hadn’t lost to Eastern Michigan early in the year, rooting for Illinois here would be a far easier call.) Either result is fine for the Buckeyes as there are positives to both, but Michigan State winning is probably better. Barely.
Iowa @Wisconsin
This is another very tough game to call. Wisconsin is the easier choice, as the Buckeyes played the Badgers. Depending on how the Penn State-Minnesota game goes, though, one thing is clear: It’s better if the loser of this game (but not the eventual winner) beats Minnesota. That will maximize the number of ranked teams the Big Ten has at year’s end, and allow the Buckeyes to play a one-loss or two-loss Minnesota team in the Big Ten Championship Game, which is the strongest possible opponent to come out of the West
Next… Who to root for in LSU vs Alabama
LSU @Alabama
This is actually an easy call. Root for LSU. And, preferably, the Tigers should win in a blowout.
LSU has a far stronger resume than Alabama. Not only Texas and Utah State far stronger nonconference opponents than Duke and Southern Miss, but LSU also played Florida and Vanderbilt in cross-divisional games while Alabama played Tennessee and South Carolina. Now, fans might be nervous that no one gets the benefit of the doubt that Alabama does–and that’s not wrong. But based on resumes and what each team has done on the field so far this year, it’s clear that LSU has a superior resume.
Now, either team at 11-1 will have a claim at the Playoff if there’s a bit of chaos. LSU will have a far stronger claim, though, so the Buckeyes would rather the Tigers beat Alabama–or lose another game later on if they lose to Alabama.
That’s the one other consideration here. With remaining games against Mississippi State, FCS Western Carolina, and Auburn, it’s unlikely (though not impossible) that Alabama will lose another game. LSU, meanwhile, has no more losable games–the toughest remaining test is the season-ending home game against Texas A&M. Texas A&M could do nothing in its three games against good teams this year. And while the Aggies do match up better against LSU than they did against Clemson, Alabama, and Auburn, they’ll still be heavy underdogs. Ohio State would love it if the loser of this game can also lose one more. The team with a better chance of doing that is Alabama, on the road in the Iron Bowl.
Also, it’s nice to root for Joe Burrow, who’s still a Buckeye at heart. That, of course, doesn’t factor into the calculations here, but it is a little gravy on top of the fact that LSU is the team to root for.
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