Rising consumer confidence and the prospect of late bargains mean retailers can look forward to a bounceback in shopper numbers this Christmas, industry experts are predicting.
But after storms hit sales last year, the weather still has the power to make or break the festive season, said Springboard, a research firm that works with the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
Springboard’s figures published on Monday show the number of shoppers on UK high streets, at shopping malls and out-of-town centres fell for the seventh month running in October.
Footfall was down 0.8% on a year earlier, compared with a 0.9% annual fall in September. The report also shows the first increase in vacant shops since early 2013.
But Springboard predicts a Christmas recovery in shopper numbers, with December expected to bring an 8% annual jump in footfall. That compares with a tough December last year when storms and flood warnings kept shoppers at home and footfall fell an annual 2.4%.
Diane Wehrle at Springboard says the last time the weather went retailers’ way at Christmas was 2011 when footfall rose 5.1% but the economic backdrop was gloomier.
This year the economic conditions were more favourable, with strong consumer confidence and low inflation pointing to a better Christmas.
“Retailers might not believe it in terms of sales value but in terms of sales volumes, it is looking good,” she said. “People are more confident. House prices have gone up which makes people feel more confident as they are in a more solid financial position.”
But the weather could still put a dampener on things.
“The Christmas trading period is a short period of time but critical so if the weather is very adverse late on it will really affect things,” said Wehrle.
She also predicted another game of chicken this year with many shoppers holding out for Christmas bargains and retailers waiting till the last minute to offer festive discounts.
The BRC said town centres had to work harder to drive up shopper numbers after the latest monthly footfall figures showed high streets suffering while out of town retail parks continued to enjoy growth. Continuing a trend seen throughout much of this year shopping centre footfall also dropped 1.9% in October. High street footfall fell 1.4% and out-of-town rose 1.9%.
BRC director-general Helen Dickinson said: “In order to drive up footfall, some local areas need to continue to learn from more successful town centres by encouraging pop-ups, using empty premises as community spaces or even as arts venues to ensure that empty shops don’t become a blight on the local area.”
Springboard predicts retail parks will continue to outperform high streets and shopping centres this Christmas, with out-of-town benefitting from the rising popularity of ‘click and collect’, where people buy online and drive to shops with free parking to pick up their shopping.
Katie Allen
Photograph: Anthony Devlin/PA
