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The Telegraph
The Telegraph
National
Ben Riley-Smith

Why the Liberal Democrat revival could hand Sir Keir Starmer the keys to Number 10

Labour leader Keir Starmer speaks to supporters in Barnet, London after the party clinched victory - Jonathan Brady
Labour leader Keir Starmer speaks to supporters in Barnet, London after the party clinched victory - Jonathan Brady

The results of Thursday's local elections may have presented a mixed picture, but one clear conclusion was evident early on – this was not a landslide for Labour.

There was a rout for Sir Keir Starmer's party in London, but it has not made the major gains desired in England outside the capital. 

That has thrown the spotlight back on just how high a hill the party has to climb in order to win an overall majority at the next general election, due by 2024.

There are currently 358 Tory MPs, while Labour has 199. That is a vast gap, and would need a staggering swing in one election cycle to hand Sir Keir a majority.

Labour would have to drastically cut back the SNP's dominance in Scotland and reclaim a chunk of the Red Wall seats lost to Boris Johnson two and a bit years ago. On the basis of these results, neither is inevitable.

If Sir Keir is to get the keys to Number 10, it may be thanks to a deal struck after election day with another party – which is why the Liberal Democrat performance on Thursday is so interesting.

Seven years ago, the party was all but wiped out as voters punished Nick Clegg for his coalition with David Cameron. The political toxicity has clung on in the years since then.

But there were signs of real green shoots for the Lib Dems on Thursday. Their victory in Hull, taking the council from Labour, was the stand-out early result. 

The relentless targeting of Blue Wall Tory seats – often in rural southern constituencies they believe have been "taken for granted" by the Conservatives – also achieved notable wins.

In West Oxfordshire, near where former prime minister David Cameron lives, the Lib Dems are now the biggest party, with the Tories stripped of their council control.

Gains were made in Wimbledon and Cheadle, two seats held by Tory MPs that are in Lib Dem sights for the next election. Somerset turned yellow. 

On the campaign trail, Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, explicitly ruled out a coalition with Boris Johnson but made no such statement about Sir Keir. 

Sir Ed Davey and a Lib Dem supporter greet the media on Wimbledon Common
Sir Ed Davey and a Lib Dem supporter greet the media on Wimbledon Common

Tory HQ believes Labour and the Lib Dems quietly allowed the other a free run at seats where only one opposition party was best placed to beat the Tories. Sir Keir and Sir Ed both publicly denied any such pact existed.

According to Tory analysis, Labour stood candidates in just two thirds of seats in the South West – a big Lib Dem target region – compared to almost 100 per cent the last time these councils held votes in 2018.

So should Labour emerge as the largest party but without an overall majority, could Sir Keir turn to other opposition parties to form a coalition? 

There are few certainties, and everything would depend on the numbers. But one point worth making is that the Lib Dems could well be seen as more palatable bedfellows than the SNP.

Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP currently holds 45 of the 650 seats in the Commons and is by far the third largest party on those benches – more than triple the size of the Lib Dems, with their 13 seats.

The prospect of a Labour-SNP deal was weaponised to great effect by Mr Cameron’s campaign in the 2015 election – attacks sure to be repeated next time round.

Given Ms Sturgeon's determination to hold another Scottish independence vote, a concession on that front would be item number one on her negotiation demands list. Sir Keir opposes a second referendum.

But the Lib Dems' demands could be more palatable to Sir Keir. There is probably more policy overlap between Labour and the Lib Dems than any other of the leading parties.

In the five days of coalition talks that followed the 2010 election, the two parties came closer to striking a deal than was known at the time. Gordon Brown's reluctance to step aside ultimately put paid to any such pact.

Of course there are looser arrangements than a formal coalition which could appeal to Sir Ed, a veteran of the coalition years, after the political pain that followed.

The DUP propped up Theresa May's Tories after she lost the party's majority in the disastrous 2017 snap election, striking a looser "confidence and supply" deal, meaning support for key votes but no government positions. 

These are early days. Even if the Lib Dems increased their Commons seat count by 50 per cent at the next election, that would still be only around 20 MPs out of 650.

But with Labour not romping to victories outside of London and the Lib Dems eating into the Tory vote share in the South, get ready for a lot more chatter about coalitions.

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